What Leon Trotsky achieved

Leon Trotsky died on August 21st, 1940, murdered in his Mexican retreat by an agent sent by Stalin to kill him. He was one of the leaders of Russia's Bolshevik October Revolution, which he saw as a permanent proletarian revolution, as opposed to the democratic "bourgeois" Menshevik revolution that had seized power in February. Initially a Menshevik himself, Trotsky had joined Lenin in the Bolsheviks just before the October...

Necessity is the Mother of Invention – Retirees Desperate Reach for Yield

Ben Bernanke’s creativity inspired a generation of economists and central bankers. QE, ZIRP and NIRP established a new class of economics that is mathematically sound but practically disastrous. Billions of dollars were transferred from savers to investors to boost the economy, but the wizards of quant forgot that something has to give. In this case, it was the formation of a pension crisis that threatens the golden years of millions of...

On liberalism and democracy

I have a new podcast discussion with our friends at the Institute for Liberal Studies here. The new ILS podcast, “The curious task”, is hosted by Alex Aragona and its overall site is here; previous guests include Nigel Ashford and Peter Jaworski. Published on: August 21, 2019August 21, 2019Author: Jacob T. Levy

Some Links

Vincent Geloso brilliantly explains that America’s economic riches were not, and are not, the product of slavery – quite the opposite. Here’s his conclusion: It is clear that one cannot infer that America was made richer from the often-used facts about growth and slavery. It is even clearer that America was made poorer by slavery. Slavery leaves a nasty legacy. Its preservation required the use of racist ideological constructs to justify it....

Wednesday afternoon links – Publications – AEI

AEI Wednesday afternoon links 1. Charts of the Day I and II (above) shows the old “stagflation” measure that is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate on a monthly basis from January 1960 to July 2019 in the top chart, and the bottom chart shows the 10-year Treasury rate. Those three variables (unemployment rate, inflation rate and long-term interests) are the key components of the Federal Reserve’s “dual mandate,” which is...

American Public on Education: “We Want It All”

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, back-to-school also means the release of lots of education polling, and Tuesday brought us the yearly Education Next poll, which is one of my favorites. (Of course, I love all you crazy polls!) The Education Next folks do a lot of interesting experimentation with their polls, especially when it comes to funding, and they keep nice longitudinal data. I don’t love every part of the survey—looking at you, Common...

Mises on Liberalism, Socialism and Democracy

I reread Mises's classic work Socialism this summer.  Fun historical fact -- this was the first book of Mises's that I read, followed by Theory of Money and Credit, before I read Human Action.  The book had a huge impact on me when I read it, and it still does.  In many ways, I consider it Mises's best book in terms of argument, tone, and urgency -- though of course Human Action is his most magisterial work.  Mises's commitment to liberal...

Not MAGA:The Donald’s Visible Economy Scam And Invisible Policy Disaster, Part 3

A Carbon Tax Is Not a Slam Dunk

Advocates of a carbon tax argue, correctly, that a tax is a much better way to reduce carbon usage than any system of regulations could be. The reason is that every use of carbon that creates carbon dioxide imposes damage, and a carbon tax based on the amount of carbon dioxide created will cause everyone who creates carbon dioxide to, indirectly, take that damage into account. The carbon tax beautifully scales the payment to the damage: those...

Off The Cuff: The Structural Supply Shortage Of Silver

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Jeff Clark discuss: Why The Recent Gold Breakout Is For Real Why Lower Interest Rates Will Boost Gold Demand Why Silver’s Price Will Need To Go Much Higher Why Investors May Find PMs Hard To Obtain During The Next Crash We delayed this podcast a week in order to rush the one with Axel Merk out right after the latest Fed announcement. But it’s no less important. Precious metals analyst Jeff Clark...

Deflation Is Everywhere—If You Know Where to Look, Report 18 Aug

At a shopping mall recently, we observed an interesting deal at Sketchers. If you buy two pairs of shoes, the second is 30% off. Sketchers has long offered deals like this (sometimes 50% off). This is a sign of deflation. Regular readers know to wait for the punchline. Manufacturer Gives Away Its Margins We do not refer merely to the fact that there is a discount. We are not simply arguing that Sketchers are sold cheaper—hence deflation. That...

What To Do Now To Prep For A Winter Power Outageage

Preparing in advance for the upcoming winter is important for those who live in areas where blizzards and the subsequent power outages occur frequently. It is vital to have some stored food and water just in case you’re left without power and there is no way to get out and about, but make sure you take a few other things into consideration as well. Some of the best foods to store for this are those that pack a nutritional punch.  The foods...

What I Learned at Camp Kotok

I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp and the mood was decidedly different this year. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed” but it is really just a meeting of wickedly smart people focused on economics and markets. (I am allowed to attend for comic relief.) Throw in a...

A Wobbling Stock Market

Consider this chart of the SPX (S&P 500) over the past two years: take a look at the relative steepness of each of the red lines (rallies), the duration of each rally (purple lines), the blue boxes (volatile spots of bother) and the green line (market has gone nowhere for 19 months as every rally to new highs drops back to or below the high of January 2018). As the saying goes, a market topping is not an event, it’s a process. There are...

Investigating Product Exclusion Requests for Section 232 Tariffs: An Update

On March 8, 2018, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, President Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum. US manufacturers may request an exemption to Section 232 tariffs from the Commerce Department. If tariffed materials do not pose a threat to national security and there is insufficient domestic supply, then Commerce may issue an exemption. Other manufacturers have 30...

Defencemen Logan Stanley and Tucker Poolman will get their first flavor

Video: TSN Pre-Game ReportWINNIPEG – Defencemen Logan Stanley and Tucker Poolman will get their first flavor of NHL preseason action tonight once the Winnipeg Jets host the Minnesota Wild at Bell MTS Position.”I’m thrilled for tonight,” Poolman stated, incorporating his father and his youngest brother is going to be with the match tonight. “I’m just likely to head out there, make some performs and maintain it straightforward.”For me it’s just...

If a Pure Market Economy Is So Good, Why Doesn’t It Exist?

If a pure market economy is so good, why does it not already exist? If governments are so bad, why are they dominant throughout the world today? Indeed, is the widespread adoption of free markets ever likely to occur? Many recent authors, including Tyler Cowen,1 Cowen and Daniel Sutter,2 Randall G. 3Holcombe, and Andrew Rutten4, ...

Peter Schiff: The Media Has Flipped the Narrative on Trump

Last week, the yield curve inverted, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling below the yield on the 2-year for the first time in 12 years. This has historically been a good predictor of recessions. US stock markets sold off on the news, with the Dow shedding 800 points. As Peter Schiff noted in his most recent podcast, the mainstream also suddenly started talking about the possibility of an economic downturn.As Peter put it, the media...

The Problem With “Fact Checking” Websites

This is absolutely hilarious. On Facebook a screenshot of this AP News article is floating around… And then look at how this “fact checker”-type website tries to downplay the obvious critique.

Ep. 1475 Gene Epstein Smacks Down Progressive Economics

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Repo Market Problems & Ballooning Inventories of Treasuries at Primary Dealers Make it into the Fed’s Minutes. My Fancy-Schmancy “Fed Hawk-o-Meter” Jumps

Fed Warns about “Elevated” Asset Prices and High Business Leverage. My fancy-schmancy Fed Hawk-o-Meter, which analyzes the minutes of the Fed’s meetings for tell-tale signs of how the Fed sees the economy, jumped 5 points for the meeting on July 30-31, indicating that a further rate cut – even a cut of just a quarter percentage point – was not set in stone during the meeting: The Fed Hawk-o-Meter counts how often “strong,” “strongly,” and...

China’s Ultimate Play For Global Oil Market Control

Authored by Yossef Bodansky via GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs, All attention is focused on the twists-and-turns of the very noisy US-Iran dispute in the Persian Gulf, but all the while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is rapidly and quietly consolidating a dominant presence in the area with the active support of Russia. Beijing, as a result, is fast acquiring immense influence over related key dynamics such as the price of oil in the...