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Chris Vermeulen

Articles by Chris Vermeulen

Bitcoin Rallies Above $28,300 – Is This The Peak?

18 days ago

We hope you enjoyed the brief holiday break… it seems Bitcoin has been busy while the markets have been resting! Bitcoin enthusiasts are adamant that the price rally has just started a parabolic move higher.  From a technical standpoint, this current rally certainly appears to have gone parabolic.  As any trader already understands, what goes up may eventually come crashing downward.
My research team and I believe failure at the current highs would represent a clear technical divergence pattern between price and the RSI indicator. Additionally, the current rally that started on December 20 consists of a $10,850 rally phase.  The previous rally that took place from October 20 to December 2 consisted of a $9,200 rally phase.  We believe this current rally phase from December 11 could be a

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Bitcoin Rally Similarities – Is This The Peak?

24 days ago

The recent rally in Bitcoin is strangely similar to the rally that took place in 2017.  Although the range of price throughout the rally is somewhat different, the structure of price throughout the rally phase is very similar.  Our researchers believe this similarity suggests a peak may be forming in Bitcoin and the big volume on Monday, December 21, 2020, may have represented a “blow-off peak” in price.
Bitcoin 2017 Peak Structure
The following Weekly Bitcoin chart highlights the three rally phases that took place before the peak level was reached in December 2017. Pay very close attention to the structure you are seeing on this chart and the highlights we’ve made to help you understand how the price structure is being mirrored in the current rally phase.

Initially, we saw a $2100 rally

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Metals/Miners Shifting Gears – Are You Ready For What’s Next? – Part II

28 days ago

In the first part of our research, we highlighted our broad market super-cycle trend analysis.  This analysis suggests the global markets are shifting away from a stock market appreciation phase into a depreciation phase.  This shift will likely prompt a new commodities sector appreciation phase to begin fairly quickly.

If our research is correct, the current Depreciation phase has just started and we are experiencing an “excess phase” (blow-off) top formation in the US and Global stock markets.  This longer-term cycle phase chart (below) helps to illustrate how these cycles work.  Even though some of you may be able to find areas on this chart where the US Stock market did not decline within a depreciation phase, watch how the US Dollar and Gold reacted throughout these phases as

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Metals/Miners Shifting Gears – Are You Ready For What’s Next? – Part I

December 17, 2020

The recent bottom in Metals/Miners has everyone excited to see what this next upside price leg is capable of achieving.  The extended Pennant/Flag formation that setup a peak in August 2020 has nearly reached the Apex.  The upside move in Gold and Silver, as well as Junior Miner ETFs, over the past few weeks suggests a new upside price trend is setting up.  The concept that commodities and metals are very new to historically low price levels sets up expectations that a longer-term price advance could send Gold above $3750 and send Silver above $50 as expectations adjust to the new price cycles.
Some of my team’s recent research has highlighted our belief that we are just starting a Depreciation cycle for the US/Global stock market which aligns

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LT Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals-Part II

December 17, 2020

In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline.  We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline.  Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market.  This past research article – How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II – is an excellent review item for today’s Part II conclusion to our current article.
Custom Metals Index Channels & Trends
Our Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside

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Copper & Bonds telegraphed the 2020 COVID collapse

December 10, 2020

A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020.  T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020.  Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020.
My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand”

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SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend

November 23, 2020

My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX.  Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.
An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls.  This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation.  Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal.  Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very

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Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To SPY & QQQ – Part II

November 16, 2020

In Part I of this research article I highlighted the incredible rally in Gold related to a 2020 Anchor point and how that rally in Gold compared to the QQQ and SPY.  In this second Part I am going to highlight the price appreciation in the QQQ and SPY in comparison to Gold since 2009.  It is important to understand how the equities/stocks have rallied in comparison to Gold because the ratio of valuation levels in equities/stocks compared to Gold appears to show when price disparities become outrageous and begin to revert.
Part I of our research showed the 2000 anchor point ratios, where we saw that Gold appreciated faster than the QQQ and the SPY over the span of the past 20 years.  You’ll also see that the QQQ and SPY have appreciated very quickly over the past 5+ years in an attempt to

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Silver Junior Miners Reach Flag Apex Just Before US Elections

November 3, 2020

Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2.  My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections.  We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete.  Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).
The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention.  Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05

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Gold and Silver Ready For Another Rally Attempt

October 12, 2020

After nearly three weeks of sideways/downward price action in Gold and Silver, our researchers believe both metals have already set up another breakout/rally attempt after breaching downward resistance (shown as the downward sloping CYAN line). This could be another huge opportunity for precious metals traders as the next move higher should prompt a rally above recent highs. That means a target price level in Gold above $2100 and a target price level in Silver above $30.50.
The deep price retracements recently in both Gold and Silver have come from news events. First, the EU Banking Report that destroyed the market on September 21. Then, just recently, the news that President Trump contracted COVID-19. The resilience in both Gold and Silver

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Spy ETF Testing March Price Peak – What Do the Charts Say?

October 6, 2020

The SPY has been trading below its previous peak resistance level from March for more than two weeks and has begun to retest this level.
If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.
If not, then we may see more of a sideways/melt-down phase headed into the US Presidential Elections.
The SPY, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, has been trading below the $339.50, previous peak resistance level, for more than two weeks recently and has begun to retest this level.  I believe these levels are critical in determining the future trending capacity of the SPY and the US stock market.  If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.  If

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Long term cycles suggest stock price reversion-gold about to explode higher

October 5, 2020

In the early 1900s, multiple events prompted a rising commodity price level and a decline in the Stocks to Commodities ratio. We expect commodities may begin to appreciate and where stock price levels may stall or decline.
We also believe we are currently nearing the end of a rising cycle in both Stocks to Commodities and S&P500 to Earnings ratios, suggesting a downward/sideways trend in the US stock market will continue while commodities attempt to form a longer-term momentum base.
The current 100-year Gold cycle suggests a Recovery phase is nearly complete and we should expect an Appreciation phase to begin within 2 years (or less). Historically, the Appreciation phase prompts a 200% to 300%+ rally in Gold prices.
My research team and I have been pouring over the

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Massive Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Is Above Critical Support

October 3, 2020

Will it hold?

A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups.
Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.
If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish.
Critical Support on the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.  The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential

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Gold And Silver Follow Up & Future Predictions For 2020/2021

September 29, 2020

Part I –September 27, 2020

Uncertainty and cycle events will likely lead to continued Gold and Silver price appreciation until the cycle events end (likely in 2024 or 2025).
The gold/silver ratio chart shows very clear levels of support and resistance. With the next targets $2,000-$2,250, $3,200 then $5,500+.
Extended basing may continue for the next 2 to 4+ months.
I have received many comments and questions related to our Gold and Precious Metals predictions originating from research posts we have made recently.  Today’s research article is Part 1 of a two-part series, which will revisit some of our past forecasts and showcase what my research team and I believe will be the most likely outcome for Gold as we push through the end of 2020 and into early 2021.

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Global Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels

September 22, 2020

New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell-off.
Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short-term correction or the start of a downtrend.
Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.
Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.
US and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations.  The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all-time highs again.  My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not

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It’s Go Time for Gold! Next Stop $2,250

September 15, 2020

Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting up new momentum base near $1,925.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt new Gold rally to $2,250.
The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next 4+ weeks. 
The US Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold.   
If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex.  Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925~1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range.  My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start

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Make or Break – Big Trends Ahead

September 14, 2020

Although our modeling systems have recently switched into Bullish Trending mode, we are still very cautious of a Bull Trap pattern.
Bearish technical divergences between price and RSI with an election 50+ days away indicates market weakness and money rotating out of FAANG stocks. FAANGs are at make or break levels – it’s time to act not react.
11% to 22% price rotation ranges are in play – are you ready?
My research team recently highlighted the current market trend setup over the past few weeks as cautiously bullish while watching for a potential Bull-Trap setup.  We have been warning our followers of the risks associated with a Presidential election year event as well as the continued disconnect between the market rally and the real-world economy.  These next few

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FANG Index Nearing Critical Support

September 9, 2020

The washout-low price move in FANG stocks may present a needed rotation in price before another upside move sets up.
Tweezer Bottoms pattern and RSI pennant formation suggest very clear support levels. 
Watch how Volume and the VIX pick up over the next few days, and how price reacts to this bounce at 945. 
Our Custom FANG Index (consisting of Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia) shows the FANG Index, and technology sector, are trading just above critical support near 945.  The congestion area on this chart between July and August just below this 945 level highlights the key resistance/support level that we are currently watching as price support. 
This Custom FANG Index Weekly chart clearly slows

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Bitcoin down almost 10%, you’ll be surprised to hear what’s next

September 7, 2020

September 3, 2020

Bitcoin collapsed near Triple Fib Amplitude Arcs – is this a sign of pending reversal for other assets?
It is very likely that Bitcoin price levels will fall below the May through July levels, near $9k in an attempt to identify new support levels. The $8k level would be the next downside price target.  Beyond that, possibly $7k or even $6k.
Gold and Silver will move lower before going higher as a potential price collapse in Bitcoin suggests general market fear is hitting all global assets.
As other assets decline in valuation levels, the US Dollar will likely be viewed as the strongest currency to own and rise.
Many of you are familiar with my team’s advanced study of Fibonacci Price Theory and our use of our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude

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September 2, 2020

FANG Index may begin to peak/top as RSI Divergence pattern sets up.
Dow Theory trend divergence confirmation suggests the end of the “Excess Rally” is near.
The VIX moving higher suggests greater concerns of increased volatility.
Dow Jones Utility Index moving lower on increased volume may be the key in a multiple-pattern set up that will confirm larger market trends.
For some context into today’s research article, please review our recent Dow Theory Trending article from last week.  We believe the divergent trend between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow Jones Transport Index, and the Dow Jones Utilities are keys to understanding the current market setup.  Today, the Utilities are moving lower with moderately increased volume while the $INDU and $TRAN are

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Expanding Wedge May Prompt Big Price Correction

August 29, 2020

The Monthly S&P500 E-Mini Futures chart is revealing an Expanding Wedge pattern that has been setting up since Jan/Feb 2018.
The VIX has set up a base and begun to move moderately higher over the past 7+ days – above the 20.00 point level and above the GAP created by the initial COVID-19 selloff. 
Our Custom Volatility Index chart warns of a “bull trap” set up, and we may see an 11% to 15% (or more) sell-off in the US and global markets if the Custom Volatility Index collapses below 10 over the next few weeks.
Are These Technical Setups Warning That A Market Top Is Forming?
I want to bring this large expanding wedge pattern to your attention as my research team and I watch the markets continue to push to new all-time highs.  This is a follow on to our research from

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Look For Platinum To Rally – Following Gold

August 27, 2020

Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.
Platinum could rally more than 300%, somewhere near $3,450 or higher.
This might push Gold above $7,500 an ounce and may push silver somewhere north of $125 per ounce.
Rally hinges on platinum breaking out above $1,050.50.
Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.  At that time, Gold had already begun to rally above $340 and Platinum had rallied to levels above $600.  Then, while Gold continued to rally, Platinum contracted to price levels near $400 on diminishing volume.  Once that contraction was complete, Platinum began and upside price move with stronger volume levels which lasted almost seven years – reaching a

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Natural Gas Rally Nearing $2.95 Resistance – May Target $3.75 or higher

August 25, 2020

Quietly, as we’ve been focused on Gold, Silver, and other symbols, Natural Gas has rallied above the $2.00 level and is starting to break higher again targeting the $2.95 level.  The very deep “rounded bottom” pattern that set up in early 2020 presented a very real opportunity for skilled technical traders by setting up multiple, very deep entry points.  We wrote about these setups in a May article when Natural Gas broke $2.00 and again a few weeks ago when NG started its upside breakout move.
The current rally as seen in the chart below appears to be stalling near the $2.50~$2.55 level, which goes all the way back to the Fibonacci Predictive Modeling System trigger levels from April 2020 and October 2020 (see the RED LINES on the chart).  We believe any stalling price levels near the

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Special Alert: Massive Dual Head-and-Shoulders Setup

August 19, 2020

Dual Head-and-Shoulders patterns warn of a potentially big downside move and new highs may be a trap for bulls
Valuation levels suggest the broader US stock market is lagging
Precious metals continue to warn of risks
The market “melt-up” may be nearing an end

My research team is issuing a Special Alert Warning after the NASDAQ and SPY reached new all-time highs.  Our research team identified a massive Head-and-Shoulders pattern (highlighted in BLUE) that originated in 2014, set up a “head” in 2018, and is now forming a “right shoulder” spanning 2019 and 2020.  Additionally, a minor Head-and-Shoulders pattern is setting up on the right side of the chart below (highlighted in MAGENTA) that peaks in early February 2020 – just before the COVID-19 price collapse.  Will this dual

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Technical Analysis Points to US Dollar Upside Potential – Part I

August 17, 2020

Article Highlights:
The US Dollar Presidential Price Cycle indicates rising US Dollar
The US Dollar is not the best asset, but rather the best of all currencies
Price Relationships Suggest The US Dollar Is Currently Undervalued
How The Presidential Price Cycle May Create Opportunities in Precious Metals and the US Stock Market
It’s been a while since we published an article about the US Dollar and this is the perfect time to discuss that is likely to happen over the next 6 to 18+ months.  The US Presidential Election is just around the corner and traders/investors are certain to interpret the uncertainty of the US Presidential Election cycle, and the pending policy and liability related changes, as a warning that equities and the US Dollar may be in for a wild ride over the next 6+

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Our Proprietary ADL Predictions for US Markets

August 15, 2020

Our friends and followers love it when we publish and Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling chart.  These are very special charts because they show us what our proprietary predictive modeling system is suggesting is a likely outcome many weeks or months into the future.  We wanted to highlight the YM ADL chart, below, because we published it near the end of 2019 in a research article suggesting a deep price correction was setting up for 2020.  Additionally, you should be able to follow the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart to see how and where the ADL predictive modeling system suggested the YM price would target.
This new ADL research, in combination with our other recent research posts, suggests the US stock market may be stalling ahead of the US Presidential elections in a

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Hyper-Chaotic Expectations Could Collapse Recovery Expectations

August 12, 2020

As much as we may not want to deal with the reality of the situation, recent news from the state of California suggests it and many other states may be reaching the fiscal boundaries of the COVID-19 economic contraction.  The reality of the economic situation is that when consumers are restricted from normal activities, taxes, sales, and revenues decrease for the state exponentially.  States that depend on consumers and business activity with very large budgets are at greater risk of experiencing immediate fiscal issues the longer the COVID-19 virus event continues.  A recent Moody’s Analytics article suggested Nevada, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Florida, DC, and Connecticut would be hit the hardest by the COVID-19 virus.
One has to use their imagination to attempt

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President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets

August 10, 2020

Up until the end of the last week, Republicans and Democrats were locked in heated negotiations regarding the size and scope of pending COVID-19 relief efforts. Our researchers had little hope that any negotiations would be successful given the two sides were so far away from one another in terms of wants and wishes.
On Saturday, August 8, 2020, President Trump signed a new Executive Order (and memorandums) to provide additional relief from the coronavirus that continues to spread in the US and around the world. These measures provide for as much as $400 in enhanced unemployment payments, and also offer Americans with temporary payroll tax relief, student loan deferments, and assistance to homeowners and renters.
The markets, meanwhile, continued to

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NASDAQ Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction

July 28, 2020

July 27, 2020

Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist.  We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes.  The NASDAQ (NQ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting and concerns about future earnings/revenues continue to shock investors.  It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “Fed Recovery” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price

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Precious Metals Fire Warning Shot Across The Bow – Part II

July 24, 2020

This second part of our multi-part article researching the massive upside price move in Silver recently should cause skilled technical traders to begin sweating a bit.  In our opinion, nothing moves metals more than fear and a move like this in Silver, recently, is a very clear indication that global traders fear the current global economic ability to sustain market valuation levels in the face of bigger and more sustained economic and COVID-19 virus crisis events.
A series of potentially destructive economic events are lining up over the next 6 to 12+ months and they all relate to the efficiency of the economic recovery many traders have banked their long positions on.  Will the COVID-19 virus subside before the end of 2020?  Will the US

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