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Chris Vermeulen

Articles by Chris Vermeulen

Sell And Go To Cash Position Or Hang On By Your Fingernails?

7 days ago

As professional traders, we spend a lot of resources determining whether we are in a bull-up market or a bear-down market. The follow-up to this is our additional efforts in finding the right places to buy or sell in either of these scenarios.
As traders, we also have different styles or time frames that we trade. For instance, longer-term trend traders may utilize the daily, weekly, or even monthly charts. In comparison, shorter-term swing traders may utilize the 4-hour or 1-hour charts.
Much emphasis and resources are committed to these efforts. However, we have learned that going to cash or having a cash position is just as important, if not more important, than having an actual position in the market.
The beautiful thing about trading is that the trader is in control. We do our

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Is The US Dollar The Global Safe-Haven?

15 days ago

May 4, 2022

Global investors continue to pile into the US Dollar making it the primary safe-haven trade.  This may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies during the past month:

In the current market environment, it’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash.

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U.S. Dollar (USD) Is On Our Radar!

April 6, 2022

Since the USD plays such a strong role in global economics, we thought it appropriate to see how the USD performance is vs. other currencies and investments.
For the U.S. consumer, a strong USD means U.S. goods are more expensive in foreign markets. For U.S. companies that buy or sell products/services globally, a strong USD means they are less competitive. A strong dollar is a significant headwind that erodes the profits of U.S. multinationals.
Since we trade and invest in ETFs, it is especially interesting to see how the USD has been trading in 2022 compared to Gold (GLD), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Gold is the top performer, followed by the Australian dollar (AUD) and the U.S. dollar (DXY). We can also see on the following chart the recent recovery rally in both the

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A Major Turning Point In Stock Market Is Taking Place

December 1, 2021

Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery.  Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking.  What’s next?
Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks
This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply

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What Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?

November 17, 2021

November 16, 2021

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the

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Gold Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex

November 11, 2021

November 11, 2021

Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.
This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in

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Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? Part II

October 26, 2021

In part one of this article, we discussed how the recent decline in Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor share prices could reflect a concern that the risks involved in holding large home inventories while attempting to “flip houses” could present for these Real Estate firms. The recent 50% price drop in the share price levels should send a fairly strong warning to investors that these “flipping” processes contain a moderate degree of underlying risk and extended costs in a super-heated, and potentially peaking Real Estate trend.
It has been reported that Zillow increased the purchase of homes for their Ibuyer program, from 86 homes in Q2:2020 to 808 homes in Q3:2020, to 3805 homes in Q2:2021. We’ll learn more about their Q3:2021 home buying efforts when Zillow announces earnings soon (source:

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Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates – Part II

October 7, 2021

As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower.  The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push home prices a bit lower over the next few months.  The Real Estate ETF, IYR, is already reflecting a roughly 10% decline in valuation since early September 2021.
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In the first part of this research article, I shared a historical chart of the US Average Mortgage rate and some data suggesting the average US consumer is somewhat bound to certain home price constraints based on Average Income.  Typically,

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Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates – Part I

October 6, 2021

US Mortgage Rates have risen from levels near 2% to 2.25% earlier in 2021 to levels now above 3%. This increase in the cost of borrowing money for home purchases has a downward effect on home prices and sales. The affordability of homes is directly related to the sales price and the cost of the mortgage to secure the purchase of the home. As interest rates rise, home affordability becomes less attractive and feasible for many potential buyers, and home prices start to fall in an attempt to allow a quicker sale.
The Making Of Another US/Global Housing Crisis
The easiest way to think about this is to consider the ability of buyers to secure and satisfy mortgage payments for homes. The more expensive the sales price of the home and the interest rate of the loan is, the more likely the

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Gold Inverted Head-n-Shoulders Suggests $2000+ Is Next Upside Target

September 9, 2021

After a moderately strong rebound from the $1675 lows in early August, Gold has clearly started to set up the Right Shoulder of what appears to be an Inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern. The recent weakness in the US Dollar suggests any breakdown in the US Dollar below $91.70 will likely prompt a new bullish price advance in Gold targeting highs above $1900 and likely attempt to reach $2100 or higher.
Watch $91.70 On The US Dollar For Next Gold Rally
Currently, the US Dollar is experiencing a few days of upward price trending after breaking downwards from highs near $93.70. Recent lows in the US Dollar, near $91.93 suggest a peak in the US Dollar may have set up. We believe the $91.70 level on the US Dollar is critical to the setup of the Inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern in Gold and

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Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out

August 24, 2021

After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021.  This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend.
Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends
While the US markets continue to trend higher, some of our custom indicators and modeling systems have recently warned of market weakness setting up in cross-market sectors.  Additionally, last week, the foreign markets took a bit of a beating while general commodities moved decidedly lower.  Overall, it is tough to argue with this upward price trend – even while other indicators suggest intermediate market strength may be weakening.
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Volume Suggests US Stock Market Momentum Is Weakening

August 13, 2021

Weakening volume after an extended rally phase is fairly common.  It represents a complacency in the markets where traders/investors are unwilling to chase an extended rally phase at higher prices.  Often traders are waiting for some type of market correction or rotation to happen – which will allow them to deploy capital back into the markets at decreased price levels.  Sometimes, this diminishing volume presents a unique scenario where traders shift their expectations away from traditional “buy the dip” thinking and that can sometimes create what is called a Flash Crash event.
Revisiting the August 2015 Flash Crash Event
In August 2015, a unique Flash Crash took place that prompted a -12.5% collapse in the S&P 500 in just four trading days – after a bout of selling pressure on a

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What’s Next For The US Markets?

August 5, 2021

When The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Reenters Price Flag Range – What’s Next For The US Markets?
Early 2021 surprised investors with a very strong bullish price rally in the US major indexes and the Russell 2000. Then, in March, the Russell 2000 peaked near $234.53 and entered a sideways Pennant/Flag formation/rotation. In June and July 2021, a moderate breakout/breakdown of that Pennant/Flat formation took place – resulting in price reentering the Pennant/Flag range near the Apex level. What does this mean for investors/traders?
IWM Rallies To Incredible Highs After November 2020 Elections
First, we want to highlight something very unusual related to the strength of the rally that took place after the November 2020 elections and into early 2021. There has only really been one example of any US

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The Peak Of The S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Nearing The Top?

July 6, 2021

July 6, 2021

Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term.  Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher.  Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher?  Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.
There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500.  First, the Fibonacci

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Q2 To Q3 – Sounds A Bit Like A Chess Game

July 5, 2021

The Question To Answer Being: Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next?

July 1, 2021

As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”.  Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.
The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months.  One simply

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The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Isn’t

June 16, 2021

Dow Jones And Transportation Index Breaching Critical Price Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

Over the past few weeks, we have watched the markets continue their attempt to melt higher. Recently the Down Jones and the Transportation Index have breached a lower upward sloping support channel that suggests traders are preparing for a surprise Fed statement or a breakdown in the current bullish price trend.  My team and I believe this warning sign may be suggesting the reflation trade is over. Traders believe the US Fed will soon begin to act to contain inflation by raising rates.
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As we move closer to the FOMC statements and decisions related to the economy, inflation, and future expectations, the US major

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Preservation Of Wealth vs You Only Live Once – AMC

June 3, 2021

Another Victory For Retail Traders As AMC Price Blasts Off
In a market flush with cash where traders are able to use social media to target heavily shorted symbols – incredible things can, and often do happen.  AMC follows GME to the heavens as retail traders flex their muscles while pushing institutional-level players to the sidelines.  It is a true David vs. Goliath story where the impossible is possible.
To The Moon?  Maybe?  But What About The Landing?
We’ll start off with this 10 Minute AMC chart that shows two incredible rallies over the past 72 hours.  The first, a +42% rally from $32 to $45, and the second, a +65% rally from $36 to $62 as day traders and retail traders drove AMC to incredible highs (over 100% higher) in just 3 days.
What is happening with these price swings is that

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Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase

May 6, 2021

May 3, 2021

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver.
Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals
We interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope.  For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many Bullish Advancing and Declining cycle phases take place – one after another.

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Are Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend?

April 19, 2021

Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data.  Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin’s new recent highs.
All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets.  After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns.  Will the

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SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410…

April 10, 2021

My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021.  The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attempting to front-run inflation concerns.
SPY Targeting $410, then $425 or higher
If the US Dollar continues to strengthen and foreign capital continues to flow into the US stock market, then my research team and I

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How To Spot Boom and Bust Cycles

March 29, 2021

One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending.  Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well.  For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated.  Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.
Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market
When an Excess Phase rally is

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Precious Metals Miners Setting Up For A Breakout Rally. Wait for Confirmation

March 27, 2021

Precious Metals have continued to slide sideways as the US stock markets have rallied into the FOMC meeting last week.  Not by coincidence, metals have continued to base/bottom near recent lows as concerns about the global debt/credit markets, central banks, and precious metal supplies continue to linger.  The US Fed indicated it will do whatever is necessary to support the recovering economy.  The question my research team asks in relation to the basis for a move in metals/miners is “do the global markets believe the global central banks still have control of the underlying global banking/credit markets well enough to prevent another massive rally in metals?”.
This question should be first and foremost for metals precious metals enthusiasts.  Recently, there has been quite a bit of

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Are the U.S. markets sending a warning signal?

March 16, 2021

After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively.  Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling?  We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week.  Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)?  Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher?  What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?
The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs.  Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw

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March 10, 2021

March 9, 2021

This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here:
In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors.   The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function.  We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before… and that

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Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys – Part I

March 8, 2021

March 7, 2021

At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities.  The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises.  The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”.  We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.
Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP.  It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand

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Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again)!

March 1, 2021

March 1, 2021

Since shortly after the US November elections, my research team and I have been clear about our research and our belief that the bullish rally in the markets would continue to drive the strongest sectors higher and higher.  In December 2020, we shared an article suggesting our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and GANN theory indicated a major price peak could set up in early April 2021.  On February 3, 2021, we also published an early warning that Treasure Yields were set up to prompt a big topping pattern sometime over the next 6+ months .  We followed that up with a February 21, 2021 article suggesting future Gold and Silver price trends may be tied to the moves in Treasury Yields and the resulting stock market trends.
Now that the Treasury Yields have

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Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends And Shifting Capital

February 25, 2021

Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength.  The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from increased yield rates. In addition, historically low interest rates have pushed the Real Estate sector, including commodities towards new highs. 
We also note Miners and Metals have shown strong support recently as the US Dollar and Bonds continue to collapse.  The way the markets are shifting right now is suggesting that we may be close to a technology peak, similar to the DOT COM peak, where capital rushes away from recently

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How to Protect Your Positions From A Market Sell-Off Using Options

February 20, 2021

Today we are going to explore how you can use options to hedge against a sudden market reversal. As you know I am going to be launching a new options service with an options specialist, Neil Szczepanski, shortly so you should start seeing more and more research on options from us.
The first question we need to answer is will there be a market sell-off?  If we first look at the S&P chart below, we can see that we have had an incredible run.  In order to determine if this trend is weakening, we need to look at what is happening with key sectors and sector rotation.  Since the beginning of 2021, we have seen a rotation into commodity sectors which is typical of a late-cycle surge.  This might give us a hint that higher volatility projections might be realized. 

What do I mean by

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Gold Setting Up Major Bottom. Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon?

February 18, 2021

February 17, 2021

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately.  The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?
Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad
My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is

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Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options

February 16, 2021

Hi everyone, it’s me Neil Szczepanski again and I’m back to finish off telling you why I love to trade options! If you missed the first half of this article entitled “5 Reasons Why People Prefer To Trade Options Over Stocks” then click on the title to revisit it.  In this second and final installment, I will walk through how adjustments and risk management of options can help give you better control of your trades and profits.  I hope everyone enjoys the information and I look forward to helping everyone win with options trading!
Everyone has heard a story about someone who mischaracterized or misunderstood their options trade, then having their account blow up when the underlying stock goes the wrong way. This happened recently with a Robinhood trader who woke up one morning

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