Friday , October 30 2020
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Chris Vermeulen

Articles by Chris Vermeulen

Gold and Silver Ready For Another Rally Attempt

18 days ago

After nearly three weeks of sideways/downward price action in Gold and Silver, our researchers believe both metals have already set up another breakout/rally attempt after breaching downward resistance (shown as the downward sloping CYAN line). This could be another huge opportunity for precious metals traders as the next move higher should prompt a rally above recent highs. That means a target price level in Gold above $2100 and a target price level in Silver above $30.50.
The deep price retracements recently in both Gold and Silver have come from news events. First, the EU Banking Report that destroyed the market on September 21. Then, just recently, the news that President Trump contracted COVID-19. The resilience in both Gold and Silver

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Spy ETF Testing March Price Peak – What Do the Charts Say?

24 days ago

The SPY has been trading below its previous peak resistance level from March for more than two weeks and has begun to retest this level.
If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.
If not, then we may see more of a sideways/melt-down phase headed into the US Presidential Elections.
The SPY, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, has been trading below the $339.50, previous peak resistance level, for more than two weeks recently and has begun to retest this level.  I believe these levels are critical in determining the future trending capacity of the SPY and the US stock market.  If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.  If

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Long term cycles suggest stock price reversion-gold about to explode higher

24 days ago

In the early 1900s, multiple events prompted a rising commodity price level and a decline in the Stocks to Commodities ratio. We expect commodities may begin to appreciate and where stock price levels may stall or decline.
We also believe we are currently nearing the end of a rising cycle in both Stocks to Commodities and S&P500 to Earnings ratios, suggesting a downward/sideways trend in the US stock market will continue while commodities attempt to form a longer-term momentum base.
The current 100-year Gold cycle suggests a Recovery phase is nearly complete and we should expect an Appreciation phase to begin within 2 years (or less). Historically, the Appreciation phase prompts a 200% to 300%+ rally in Gold prices.
My research team and I have been pouring over the

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Massive Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Is Above Critical Support

27 days ago

Will it hold?

A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups.
Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.
If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish.
Critical Support on the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.  The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential

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Gold And Silver Follow Up & Future Predictions For 2020/2021

September 29, 2020

Part I –September 27, 2020

Uncertainty and cycle events will likely lead to continued Gold and Silver price appreciation until the cycle events end (likely in 2024 or 2025).
The gold/silver ratio chart shows very clear levels of support and resistance. With the next targets $2,000-$2,250, $3,200 then $5,500+.
Extended basing may continue for the next 2 to 4+ months.
I have received many comments and questions related to our Gold and Precious Metals predictions originating from research posts we have made recently.  Today’s research article is Part 1 of a two-part series, which will revisit some of our past forecasts and showcase what my research team and I believe will be the most likely outcome for Gold as we push through the end of 2020 and into early 2021.

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Global Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels

September 22, 2020

New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell-off.
Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short-term correction or the start of a downtrend.
Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.
Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.
US and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations.  The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all-time highs again.  My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not

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It’s Go Time for Gold! Next Stop $2,250

September 15, 2020

Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting up new momentum base near $1,925.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt new Gold rally to $2,250.
The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next 4+ weeks. 
The US Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold.   
If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex.  Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925~1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range.  My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start

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Make or Break – Big Trends Ahead

September 14, 2020

Although our modeling systems have recently switched into Bullish Trending mode, we are still very cautious of a Bull Trap pattern.
Bearish technical divergences between price and RSI with an election 50+ days away indicates market weakness and money rotating out of FAANG stocks. FAANGs are at make or break levels – it’s time to act not react.
11% to 22% price rotation ranges are in play – are you ready?
My research team recently highlighted the current market trend setup over the past few weeks as cautiously bullish while watching for a potential Bull-Trap setup.  We have been warning our followers of the risks associated with a Presidential election year event as well as the continued disconnect between the market rally and the real-world economy.  These next few

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FANG Index Nearing Critical Support

September 9, 2020

The washout-low price move in FANG stocks may present a needed rotation in price before another upside move sets up.
Tweezer Bottoms pattern and RSI pennant formation suggest very clear support levels. 
Watch how Volume and the VIX pick up over the next few days, and how price reacts to this bounce at 945. 
Our Custom FANG Index (consisting of Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia) shows the FANG Index, and technology sector, are trading just above critical support near 945.  The congestion area on this chart between July and August just below this 945 level highlights the key resistance/support level that we are currently watching as price support. 
This Custom FANG Index Weekly chart clearly slows

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Bitcoin down almost 10%, you’ll be surprised to hear what’s next

September 7, 2020

September 3, 2020

Bitcoin collapsed near Triple Fib Amplitude Arcs – is this a sign of pending reversal for other assets?
It is very likely that Bitcoin price levels will fall below the May through July levels, near $9k in an attempt to identify new support levels. The $8k level would be the next downside price target.  Beyond that, possibly $7k or even $6k.
Gold and Silver will move lower before going higher as a potential price collapse in Bitcoin suggests general market fear is hitting all global assets.
As other assets decline in valuation levels, the US Dollar will likely be viewed as the strongest currency to own and rise.
Many of you are familiar with my team’s advanced study of Fibonacci Price Theory and our use of our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude

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September 2, 2020

FANG Index may begin to peak/top as RSI Divergence pattern sets up.
Dow Theory trend divergence confirmation suggests the end of the “Excess Rally” is near.
The VIX moving higher suggests greater concerns of increased volatility.
Dow Jones Utility Index moving lower on increased volume may be the key in a multiple-pattern set up that will confirm larger market trends.
For some context into today’s research article, please review our recent Dow Theory Trending article from last week.  We believe the divergent trend between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow Jones Transport Index, and the Dow Jones Utilities are keys to understanding the current market setup.  Today, the Utilities are moving lower with moderately increased volume while the $INDU and $TRAN are

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Expanding Wedge May Prompt Big Price Correction

August 29, 2020

The Monthly S&P500 E-Mini Futures chart is revealing an Expanding Wedge pattern that has been setting up since Jan/Feb 2018.
The VIX has set up a base and begun to move moderately higher over the past 7+ days – above the 20.00 point level and above the GAP created by the initial COVID-19 selloff. 
Our Custom Volatility Index chart warns of a “bull trap” set up, and we may see an 11% to 15% (or more) sell-off in the US and global markets if the Custom Volatility Index collapses below 10 over the next few weeks.
Are These Technical Setups Warning That A Market Top Is Forming?
I want to bring this large expanding wedge pattern to your attention as my research team and I watch the markets continue to push to new all-time highs.  This is a follow on to our research from

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Look For Platinum To Rally – Following Gold

August 27, 2020

Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.
Platinum could rally more than 300%, somewhere near $3,450 or higher.
This might push Gold above $7,500 an ounce and may push silver somewhere north of $125 per ounce.
Rally hinges on platinum breaking out above $1,050.50.
Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.  At that time, Gold had already begun to rally above $340 and Platinum had rallied to levels above $600.  Then, while Gold continued to rally, Platinum contracted to price levels near $400 on diminishing volume.  Once that contraction was complete, Platinum began and upside price move with stronger volume levels which lasted almost seven years – reaching a

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Natural Gas Rally Nearing $2.95 Resistance – May Target $3.75 or higher

August 25, 2020

Quietly, as we’ve been focused on Gold, Silver, and other symbols, Natural Gas has rallied above the $2.00 level and is starting to break higher again targeting the $2.95 level.  The very deep “rounded bottom” pattern that set up in early 2020 presented a very real opportunity for skilled technical traders by setting up multiple, very deep entry points.  We wrote about these setups in a May article when Natural Gas broke $2.00 and again a few weeks ago when NG started its upside breakout move.
The current rally as seen in the chart below appears to be stalling near the $2.50~$2.55 level, which goes all the way back to the Fibonacci Predictive Modeling System trigger levels from April 2020 and October 2020 (see the RED LINES on the chart).  We believe any stalling price levels near the

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Special Alert: Massive Dual Head-and-Shoulders Setup

August 19, 2020

Dual Head-and-Shoulders patterns warn of a potentially big downside move and new highs may be a trap for bulls
Valuation levels suggest the broader US stock market is lagging
Precious metals continue to warn of risks
The market “melt-up” may be nearing an end

My research team is issuing a Special Alert Warning after the NASDAQ and SPY reached new all-time highs.  Our research team identified a massive Head-and-Shoulders pattern (highlighted in BLUE) that originated in 2014, set up a “head” in 2018, and is now forming a “right shoulder” spanning 2019 and 2020.  Additionally, a minor Head-and-Shoulders pattern is setting up on the right side of the chart below (highlighted in MAGENTA) that peaks in early February 2020 – just before the COVID-19 price collapse.  Will this dual

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Technical Analysis Points to US Dollar Upside Potential – Part I

August 17, 2020

Article Highlights:
The US Dollar Presidential Price Cycle indicates rising US Dollar
The US Dollar is not the best asset, but rather the best of all currencies
Price Relationships Suggest The US Dollar Is Currently Undervalued
How The Presidential Price Cycle May Create Opportunities in Precious Metals and the US Stock Market
It’s been a while since we published an article about the US Dollar and this is the perfect time to discuss that is likely to happen over the next 6 to 18+ months.  The US Presidential Election is just around the corner and traders/investors are certain to interpret the uncertainty of the US Presidential Election cycle, and the pending policy and liability related changes, as a warning that equities and the US Dollar may be in for a wild ride over the next 6+

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Our Proprietary ADL Predictions for US Markets

August 15, 2020

Our friends and followers love it when we publish and Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling chart.  These are very special charts because they show us what our proprietary predictive modeling system is suggesting is a likely outcome many weeks or months into the future.  We wanted to highlight the YM ADL chart, below, because we published it near the end of 2019 in a research article suggesting a deep price correction was setting up for 2020.  Additionally, you should be able to follow the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart to see how and where the ADL predictive modeling system suggested the YM price would target.
This new ADL research, in combination with our other recent research posts, suggests the US stock market may be stalling ahead of the US Presidential elections in a

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Hyper-Chaotic Expectations Could Collapse Recovery Expectations

August 12, 2020

As much as we may not want to deal with the reality of the situation, recent news from the state of California suggests it and many other states may be reaching the fiscal boundaries of the COVID-19 economic contraction.  The reality of the economic situation is that when consumers are restricted from normal activities, taxes, sales, and revenues decrease for the state exponentially.  States that depend on consumers and business activity with very large budgets are at greater risk of experiencing immediate fiscal issues the longer the COVID-19 virus event continues.  A recent Moody’s Analytics article suggested Nevada, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Florida, DC, and Connecticut would be hit the hardest by the COVID-19 virus.
One has to use their imagination to attempt

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President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets

August 10, 2020

Up until the end of the last week, Republicans and Democrats were locked in heated negotiations regarding the size and scope of pending COVID-19 relief efforts. Our researchers had little hope that any negotiations would be successful given the two sides were so far away from one another in terms of wants and wishes.
On Saturday, August 8, 2020, President Trump signed a new Executive Order (and memorandums) to provide additional relief from the coronavirus that continues to spread in the US and around the world. These measures provide for as much as $400 in enhanced unemployment payments, and also offer Americans with temporary payroll tax relief, student loan deferments, and assistance to homeowners and renters.
The markets, meanwhile, continued to

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NASDAQ Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction

July 28, 2020

July 27, 2020

Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist.  We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes.  The NASDAQ (NQ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting and concerns about future earnings/revenues continue to shock investors.  It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “Fed Recovery” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price

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Precious Metals Fire Warning Shot Across The Bow – Part II

July 24, 2020

This second part of our multi-part article researching the massive upside price move in Silver recently should cause skilled technical traders to begin sweating a bit.  In our opinion, nothing moves metals more than fear and a move like this in Silver, recently, is a very clear indication that global traders fear the current global economic ability to sustain market valuation levels in the face of bigger and more sustained economic and COVID-19 virus crisis events.
A series of potentially destructive economic events are lining up over the next 6 to 12+ months and they all relate to the efficiency of the economic recovery many traders have banked their long positions on.  Will the COVID-19 virus subside before the end of 2020?  Will the US

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Precious Metals Spike and Us Warn Of Danger – Part I

July 23, 2020

If you have not been paying attention to what is happening in Gold, Silver, and Platinum over the past 3+ days, then read this research article carefully.  If you have been paying attention to the move in Precious Metals, then keep reading to learn why this move is so important.  Here we go…
Precious metals have been on the move higher for much of the past 24+ months.  Yet, certain forces have attempted to quell the upside advance as global investors adopt a more fearful stance relating to the global economy.  As the COVID-19 virus event hit, a big downside washout move took place in Gold and Silver. 
This type of low price rotation is a common pattern as traders are forced to liquidate precious metals positions to cover margin requirements related to open long positions in a deep downside

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US Stock Market Stalls Near A Double Peak

July 20, 2020

The US stock market stalled early this week as earnings started to hit.  A number of news and other items are pending with earnings just starting to roll in.  There have been some big numbers posted from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.   Yet, the markets have reacted rather muted to these blowout revenues.
We believe this is a technical “Double Top” set up in the making.  The NASDAQ has been much weaker than the S&P and the Dow Industrials.  We believe the US stock market is reacting to the reality of earnings and forward guidance after the recent rally in price levels over the past 9+ weeks.  If we are correct and this Double-Top pushes price levels lower, then this technical resistance level may become the price ceiling headed into Q3 and Q4 2020.
Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to

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Retail Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again

July 9, 2020

Yes, we certainly live in interesting times.  This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020.  If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.
On May 24th, 2020, we published this research article related to our super-cycle research. It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments

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The Big Short #2 Is Happening!

July 7, 2020

The Big Short #2 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again, Part I
One thing is very certain right now – we live in very interesting times.  As the world rushes head-first into the 21st Century, it appears one of the most pressing issues before all of us is to navigate the risks and opportunities that continue to stack up ahead of us.  Within the first 20 years of this century, the global markets have experienced many shifts and big price rotations.  Emerging markets, Oil, Technology, Bio-Tech, Miners, Metals, Currencies, Cryptos – we can look at all of these on a longer-term basis and see a boom cycle and a moderate bust cycle event.
The current trends suggest global investors are pouring capital into the US technology stocks which is what is driving the NASDAQ to new all-time

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Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go

June 29, 2020

One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base.  It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new momentum rally to a new momentum price base.
We believe July and August 2020 could prompt a series of these types of rotations as Gold attempts a move above $2100 or higher.  Allow us to explain our thinking as we explore this price pattern a bit further.
The first thing we need to realize is that Gold is nearing the $1900 level as it continues to push higher.  This is a very significant level for Gold because it would be very close to breaking the 2011 all-time high level near $1917.90.

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US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move-Part II

June 25, 2020

In the first part of this research article, we briefly discussed the recent price and global economic events related to the 2018 to 2020 US stock market volatility and the COVID-19 virus event.  The premise of this research post was to highlight the current upside parabolic price trend that initiated shortly after the 2015~16 US election cycle event.  It is almost impossible to look at the NAS100 chart, below, and not see the dramatic upside price advance that took place after the November 2016 US elections.
It is almost as if the US stock markets had been primed by Federal Reserve intervention over the previous 5+ years and someone let the monster out of the cage.  The deregulation, changes to tax structures and general perception of market opportunity changed almost immediately after the

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Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs

June 24, 2020

We warned about this move many months ago and just 6 days ago we issued a research post suggesting Gold had cleared major resistance and would start a rally mode to push above $2000 – possibly above $2100.  Well, guess what happened right after we made that statement? Yup – Gold started to rally higher and is currently trading near $1790 – about to break $1800 for the first time in 2020.
You can read some of our most recent Gold articles below:
June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher
June 18, 2020: Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time For Liftoff
June 20, 2020: All That Glitters When The World Jitters Is Probably Gold
What we really want you to focus on is the fact that Gold is rallying to levels above

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All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold

June 22, 2020

The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.
In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720.  Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008.  We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.
An underlying

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Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time for Liftoff

June 19, 2020

Our research team authored an article on April 24, 2020, suggesting Gold would have to clear a major resistance channel/arc before any further attempt at a rally would take place.  You can read that article here.
At that time, we expected this resistance channel to contain gold Prices for a short 10 to 14+days before a bigger upside price move was going to begin.  You can see from our original charts that we believed the resistance channel would be broken fairly quickly.  Yet, Gold has continued to trail moderately lower as the US stock market has continued to rally and the US Fed has stepped up their support and is buying up all sorts of debt and assets.

Comparing the original chart to the current Daily Gold chart, below, you

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