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Chris Vermeulen



Articles by Chris Vermeulen

Gold Inverted Head-n-Shoulders Suggests $2000+ Is Next Upside Target

8 days ago

After a moderately strong rebound from the $1675 lows in early August, Gold has clearly started to set up the Right Shoulder of what appears to be an Inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern. The recent weakness in the US Dollar suggests any breakdown in the US Dollar below $91.70 will likely prompt a new bullish price advance in Gold targeting highs above $1900 and likely attempt to reach $2100 or higher.
Watch $91.70 On The US Dollar For Next Gold Rally
Currently, the US Dollar is experiencing a few days of upward price trending after breaking downwards from highs near $93.70. Recent lows in the US Dollar, near $91.93 suggest a peak in the US Dollar may have set up. We believe the $91.70 level on the US Dollar is critical to the setup of the Inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern in Gold and

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Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out

25 days ago

After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021.  This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend.
Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends
While the US markets continue to trend higher, some of our custom indicators and modeling systems have recently warned of market weakness setting up in cross-market sectors.  Additionally, last week, the foreign markets took a bit of a beating while general commodities moved decidedly lower.  Overall, it is tough to argue with this upward price trend – even while other indicators suggest intermediate market strength may be weakening.
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Volume Suggests US Stock Market Momentum Is Weakening

August 13, 2021

Weakening volume after an extended rally phase is fairly common.  It represents a complacency in the markets where traders/investors are unwilling to chase an extended rally phase at higher prices.  Often traders are waiting for some type of market correction or rotation to happen – which will allow them to deploy capital back into the markets at decreased price levels.  Sometimes, this diminishing volume presents a unique scenario where traders shift their expectations away from traditional “buy the dip” thinking and that can sometimes create what is called a Flash Crash event.
Revisiting the August 2015 Flash Crash Event
In August 2015, a unique Flash Crash took place that prompted a -12.5% collapse in the S&P 500 in just four trading days – after a bout of selling pressure on a

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What’s Next For The US Markets?

August 5, 2021

When The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Reenters Price Flag Range – What’s Next For The US Markets?
Early 2021 surprised investors with a very strong bullish price rally in the US major indexes and the Russell 2000. Then, in March, the Russell 2000 peaked near $234.53 and entered a sideways Pennant/Flag formation/rotation. In June and July 2021, a moderate breakout/breakdown of that Pennant/Flat formation took place – resulting in price reentering the Pennant/Flag range near the Apex level. What does this mean for investors/traders?
IWM Rallies To Incredible Highs After November 2020 Elections
First, we want to highlight something very unusual related to the strength of the rally that took place after the November 2020 elections and into early 2021. There has only really been one example of any US

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The Peak Of The S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Nearing The Top?

July 6, 2021

July 6, 2021

Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term.  Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher.  Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher?  Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.
There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500.  First, the Fibonacci

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Q2 To Q3 – Sounds A Bit Like A Chess Game

July 5, 2021

The Question To Answer Being: Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next?

July 1, 2021

As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”.  Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.
The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months.  One simply

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The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Isn’t

June 16, 2021

Dow Jones And Transportation Index Breaching Critical Price Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

Over the past few weeks, we have watched the markets continue their attempt to melt higher. Recently the Down Jones and the Transportation Index have breached a lower upward sloping support channel that suggests traders are preparing for a surprise Fed statement or a breakdown in the current bullish price trend.  My team and I believe this warning sign may be suggesting the reflation trade is over. Traders believe the US Fed will soon begin to act to contain inflation by raising rates.
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As we move closer to the FOMC statements and decisions related to the economy, inflation, and future expectations, the US major

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Preservation Of Wealth vs You Only Live Once – AMC

June 3, 2021

Another Victory For Retail Traders As AMC Price Blasts Off
In a market flush with cash where traders are able to use social media to target heavily shorted symbols – incredible things can, and often do happen.  AMC follows GME to the heavens as retail traders flex their muscles while pushing institutional-level players to the sidelines.  It is a true David vs. Goliath story where the impossible is possible.
To The Moon?  Maybe?  But What About The Landing?
We’ll start off with this 10 Minute AMC chart that shows two incredible rallies over the past 72 hours.  The first, a +42% rally from $32 to $45, and the second, a +65% rally from $36 to $62 as day traders and retail traders drove AMC to incredible highs (over 100% higher) in just 3 days.
What is happening with these price swings is that

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Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase

May 6, 2021

May 3, 2021

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver.
Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals
We interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope.  For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many Bullish Advancing and Declining cycle phases take place – one after another.

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Are Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend?

April 19, 2021

Almost in stealth mode, precious metals have begun to bottom and start a new upside price trend while the US stock market focused on the FOMC meeting a few weeks back and current economic data.  Gold, Silver, and many of the Miner ETFs recently started a moderately strong push higher – almost completely behind the scenes of the hype in the markets regarding IPOs and Bitcoin’s new recent highs.
All the Gold traders know that when Gold starts a new leg higher, it could mean inflation fears are being amplified in the global markets and/or fear is starting to creep back into the markets.  After the recent rally in the US major indexes and as we plow through Q1:2021 earnings, it makes sense that some fear and inflation concerns are starting to take precedence over other concerns.  Will the

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SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410…

April 10, 2021

My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021.  The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attempting to front-run inflation concerns.
SPY Targeting $410, then $425 or higher
If the US Dollar continues to strengthen and foreign capital continues to flow into the US stock market, then my research team and I

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How To Spot Boom and Bust Cycles

March 29, 2021

One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending.  Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well.  For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated.  Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.
Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market
When an Excess Phase rally is

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Precious Metals Miners Setting Up For A Breakout Rally. Wait for Confirmation

March 27, 2021

Precious Metals have continued to slide sideways as the US stock markets have rallied into the FOMC meeting last week.  Not by coincidence, metals have continued to base/bottom near recent lows as concerns about the global debt/credit markets, central banks, and precious metal supplies continue to linger.  The US Fed indicated it will do whatever is necessary to support the recovering economy.  The question my research team asks in relation to the basis for a move in metals/miners is “do the global markets believe the global central banks still have control of the underlying global banking/credit markets well enough to prevent another massive rally in metals?”.
This question should be first and foremost for metals precious metals enthusiasts.  Recently, there has been quite a bit of

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Are the U.S. markets sending a warning signal?

March 16, 2021

After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively.  Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling?  We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week.  Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)?  Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher?  What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?
The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs.  Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw

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STIMULUS AND CONSUMERS ARE THE KEYS TO FURTHER US/GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY-II

March 10, 2021

March 9, 2021

This is a continuation of our extended technical review of what my research team and I believe will be required for the US/Global markets to enter a stronger post-COVID-19 recovery phase. If you missed Part I of this research series then you can find it here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com/stimulus-and-consumers-are-the-keys-to-further-us-global-economic-recovery-part-i/.
In this Part II, we will look at how potential currency shifts will prompt new trending in various economic sectors.   The past 20+ years have really changed how the markets operate from a standpoint of capital deployment and capital function.  We certainly live in interesting times from a trader and investor perspective. There is more capital floating around the globe right now than ever before… and that

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Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys – Part I

March 8, 2021

March 7, 2021

At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities.  The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises.  The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”.  We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.
Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP.  It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand

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Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again)!

March 1, 2021

March 1, 2021

Since shortly after the US November elections, my research team and I have been clear about our research and our belief that the bullish rally in the markets would continue to drive the strongest sectors higher and higher.  In December 2020, we shared an article suggesting our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and GANN theory indicated a major price peak could set up in early April 2021.  On February 3, 2021, we also published an early warning that Treasure Yields were set up to prompt a big topping pattern sometime over the next 6+ months .  We followed that up with a February 21, 2021 article suggesting future Gold and Silver price trends may be tied to the moves in Treasury Yields and the resulting stock market trends.
Now that the Treasury Yields have

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Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends And Shifting Capital

February 25, 2021

Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength.  The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from increased yield rates. In addition, historically low interest rates have pushed the Real Estate sector, including commodities towards new highs. 
We also note Miners and Metals have shown strong support recently as the US Dollar and Bonds continue to collapse.  The way the markets are shifting right now is suggesting that we may be close to a technology peak, similar to the DOT COM peak, where capital rushes away from recently

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How to Protect Your Positions From A Market Sell-Off Using Options

February 20, 2021

Today we are going to explore how you can use options to hedge against a sudden market reversal. As you know I am going to be launching a new options service with an options specialist, Neil Szczepanski, shortly so you should start seeing more and more research on options from us.
The first question we need to answer is will there be a market sell-off?  If we first look at the S&P chart below, we can see that we have had an incredible run.  In order to determine if this trend is weakening, we need to look at what is happening with key sectors and sector rotation.  Since the beginning of 2021, we have seen a rotation into commodity sectors which is typical of a late-cycle surge.  This might give us a hint that higher volatility projections might be realized. 

What do I mean by

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Gold Setting Up Major Bottom. Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon?

February 18, 2021

February 17, 2021

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately.  The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?
Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad
My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is

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Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options

February 16, 2021

Hi everyone, it’s me Neil Szczepanski again and I’m back to finish off telling you why I love to trade options! If you missed the first half of this article entitled “5 Reasons Why People Prefer To Trade Options Over Stocks” then click on the title to revisit it.  In this second and final installment, I will walk through how adjustments and risk management of options can help give you better control of your trades and profits.  I hope everyone enjoys the information and I look forward to helping everyone win with options trading!
REDUCE RISK
Everyone has heard a story about someone who mischaracterized or misunderstood their options trade, then having their account blow up when the underlying stock goes the wrong way. This happened recently with a Robinhood trader who woke up one morning

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Custom Valuations Index suggests Precious Metals will decline before their next attempt to rally

January 18, 2021

My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields.  The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions.  Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector).  Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.
Weekly custom valuations index chart
The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below.  The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart

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Bitcoin Rallies Above $28,300 – Is This The Peak?

December 29, 2020

We hope you enjoyed the brief holiday break… it seems Bitcoin has been busy while the markets have been resting! Bitcoin enthusiasts are adamant that the price rally has just started a parabolic move higher.  From a technical standpoint, this current rally certainly appears to have gone parabolic.  As any trader already understands, what goes up may eventually come crashing downward.
My research team and I believe failure at the current highs would represent a clear technical divergence pattern between price and the RSI indicator. Additionally, the current rally that started on December 20 consists of a $10,850 rally phase.  The previous rally that took place from October 20 to December 2 consisted of a $9,200 rally phase.  We believe this current rally phase from December 11 could be a

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Bitcoin Rally Similarities – Is This The Peak?

December 23, 2020

The recent rally in Bitcoin is strangely similar to the rally that took place in 2017.  Although the range of price throughout the rally is somewhat different, the structure of price throughout the rally phase is very similar.  Our researchers believe this similarity suggests a peak may be forming in Bitcoin and the big volume on Monday, December 21, 2020, may have represented a “blow-off peak” in price.
Bitcoin 2017 Peak Structure
The following Weekly Bitcoin chart highlights the three rally phases that took place before the peak level was reached in December 2017. Pay very close attention to the structure you are seeing on this chart and the highlights we’ve made to help you understand how the price structure is being mirrored in the current rally phase.

Initially, we saw a $2100 rally

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Metals/Miners Shifting Gears – Are You Ready For What’s Next? – Part II

December 19, 2020

In the first part of our research, we highlighted our broad market super-cycle trend analysis.  This analysis suggests the global markets are shifting away from a stock market appreciation phase into a depreciation phase.  This shift will likely prompt a new commodities sector appreciation phase to begin fairly quickly.

If our research is correct, the current Depreciation phase has just started and we are experiencing an “excess phase” (blow-off) top formation in the US and Global stock markets.  This longer-term cycle phase chart (below) helps to illustrate how these cycles work.  Even though some of you may be able to find areas on this chart where the US Stock market did not decline within a depreciation phase, watch how the US Dollar and Gold reacted throughout these phases as

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Metals/Miners Shifting Gears – Are You Ready For What’s Next? – Part I

December 17, 2020

The recent bottom in Metals/Miners has everyone excited to see what this next upside price leg is capable of achieving.  The extended Pennant/Flag formation that setup a peak in August 2020 has nearly reached the Apex.  The upside move in Gold and Silver, as well as Junior Miner ETFs, over the past few weeks suggests a new upside price trend is setting up.  The concept that commodities and metals are very new to historically low price levels sets up expectations that a longer-term price advance could send Gold above $3750 and send Silver above $50 as expectations adjust to the new price cycles.
WHERE ARE WE IN THE COMMODITY/METALS CYCLE?
Some of my team’s recent research has highlighted our belief that we are just starting a Depreciation cycle for the US/Global stock market which aligns

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LT Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals-Part II

December 17, 2020

In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline.  We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline.  Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market.  This past research article – How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II – is an excellent review item for today’s Part II conclusion to our current article.
Custom Metals Index Channels & Trends
Our Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside

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Copper & Bonds telegraphed the 2020 COVID collapse

December 10, 2020

A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020.  T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020.  Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020.
My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand”

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SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend

November 23, 2020

My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX.  Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.
An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls.  This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation.  Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal.  Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very

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Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To SPY & QQQ – Part II

November 16, 2020

In Part I of this research article I highlighted the incredible rally in Gold related to a 2020 Anchor point and how that rally in Gold compared to the QQQ and SPY.  In this second Part I am going to highlight the price appreciation in the QQQ and SPY in comparison to Gold since 2009.  It is important to understand how the equities/stocks have rallied in comparison to Gold because the ratio of valuation levels in equities/stocks compared to Gold appears to show when price disparities become outrageous and begin to revert.
Part I of our research showed the 2000 anchor point ratios, where we saw that Gold appreciated faster than the QQQ and the SPY over the span of the past 20 years.  You’ll also see that the QQQ and SPY have appreciated very quickly over the past 5+ years in an attempt to

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