Friday , May 29 2020
Home / Contributor
Contributor

Contributor



Articles by Contributor

How Would Gold Perform In a Second Stock Market Crash?

3 days ago

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com MAY 22, 2020

1929… the 1970s… 2000… 2008… and now 2020?
In the biggest stock bear markets over the past nine decades, there was an initial crash… followed by a big bounce… and then a more severe selloff, a “second leg down” if you will.
Could it happen again?
As Mark Twain said, “history doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”
And some of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers are convinced a second drop is coming…
Billionaire David Tepper, considered one of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers, said last month that “stocks are the most overvalued I’ve seen in my career.”
Stanley Druckenmiller, whose net worth is $4.7 billion, says “the risk-reward for equities is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career.”
So-called

Read More »

Stagflation Is Coming

9 days ago

Interview with Michael Pento 
May 18, 2020 04:30 pm
Recorded: May 14, 2020
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT (EDITED)
Albert Lu: It’s been way too long. How are you?
Michael Pento: I’m doing fine. I hope you’re holding up well, Albert.
AL: I’m very well. You know that discussion we had was over three years ago. It feels like we’re just picking up from where we left off in many ways. What are your thoughts on what’s gone on in the last three years and obviously especially over the last two months?
MP: So, it would take longer than the duration of this interview for me to cover what happened in the past three years, but I’ll tell you what I am concentrated on. Since the breakout of this Wuhan virus, we’ve seen debt levels surge and balance sheets destroyed across the entire planet. You look at the

Read More »

Will Havoc in the Labor Market and (Dis)Inflation Make Gold Shine?

10 days ago

There is a true havoc in the US labor market, while inflation rate has declined. What does it mean for the gold market?
True Pandemonium Emerges in the US Labor Market
This week was full of economic data. Let’s analyze them, starting, as usual, from the initial jobless claims, which became one of the most carefully studied indicator during the coronavirus crisis. As the chart below shows, in the week from May 2 to May 9, three millions of Americans applied for unemployment benefits.
Chart 1: US Initial Jobless Claims from April 6, 2019 to May 9, 2020
           
            It implies two important things. First, the total number of people who applied for the unemployment benefit surpassed 36 million in the United States. It means that the implied naïve unemployment rate (which assumes no

Read More »

Gold Daily News: Wednesday, May 13

16 days ago

The gold futures contract gained 0.52% on Tuesday as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The market remains close to the price level of $1,700. Gold is still trading within a flat correction after its April’s advance. On April 14 it was the highest since November of 2012 and the high was at $1,788.80. Since then we’ve seen some profit-taking action and a potential medium-term downward reversal.
The price of gold is basically going sideways along $1,700 mark since early to mid April and it’s trading above February-March local highs. So it still looks like a consolidation within a medium-term uptrend.

Gold  is gaining 0.6% this morning, as it continues to trade above $1,700 mark. Global financial markets remain in a risk-on mode, as stocks are hovering close to

Read More »

Gold Daily News: Friday, May 8

21 days ago

The gold futures contract gained 2.21% on Thursday, as it retraced Wednesday’s decline and got above $1,700 price level again. Gold is still trading within a flat correction following April’s advance. On April 14 it was the highest since November of 2012 and the high was at $1,788.80. Since then we’ve seen some profit-taking action and a potential downward reversal.
The price of gold is basically going sideways along $1,700 mark since early to mid April and it’s trading above February-March local highs. So it still looks like a consolidation within a medium-term uptrend.

The price of gold is down 0.2% this morning, as it fluctuates following yesterday’s advance. Global financial markets remain in a risk-on mode, as stocks hover along their medium-term local highs. What about the other

Read More »

Is sudden and soaring inflation right around the corner?

April 22, 2020

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver APR 22, 2020

Here’s How High Inflation Could Soar and How Quickly It Could Get There
With deflation engulfing the world right now, is there really any reason to worry about inflation?
Yes. As I’ll show below, not only has inflation started abruptly many times throughout history, the current actions of the Fed and other central bankers are the very actions that have caused high inflation in the past.
We have some research on inflation that we haven’t seen elsewhere, research that can potentially be very useful to all of us in preparing for what is likely ahead.
The Setup
You’ve undoubtedly heard about the unprecedented level of fiscal and monetary stimulus governments and central bankers have undertaken. The response to the virus has been

Read More »

GOLD in the New Financial Landscape

April 21, 2020

Apr 20, 2020 12:42 pmThis article was originally published at Sprott.com

If you have trouble viewing the webcast above, please try this: RIA Replay Link.
Sprott’s Ed Coyne, Whitney George and John Hathaway provide in-depth analysis on gold and gold equities. The COVID-19 pandemic has created a new financial landscape, where returns from traditional financial assets could be subpar for many years. By contrast, the crisis continues to highlight gold’s value as a safe haven investment.
Topic: The COVID-19 pandemic has created a new financial landscape, where returns from traditional financial assets, in real terms, could be subpar for many years. By contrast, this crisis continues to highlight gold’s value as a safe haven investment. 
We discussed:
Gold is one of the few assets that offers

Read More »

Is the Extreme High in the Gold/Silver Ratio Setting Up For an Extreme Reversal?

April 20, 2020

By Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com APR 20, 2020

There are a few times in an investor’s life where, as Jim Rogers once put it, you see a pile of money sitting in a corner and you can go pick it up. In other words, an investment opportunity that’s not just obvious, but has a high reward-to-risk ratio.
It may not have been expected by many investors, but the gold/silver ratio (gold price divided by the silver price) has stretched to never-before-seen levels. It’s soared to not just a generational high, but a historic high. As in 5,000 years of history.
Does this extreme reading suggest there is a pile of money sitting in a corner that we can go pick up? At a minimum it suggests a highly compelling investment opportunity.
Let’s take a look at the ratio and see what message

Read More »

Steven Feldman On Why Goldman Sachs Is Mistaken About Gold

April 14, 2020

The following article appeared at https://goldsilver.com/blog/why-goldman-sachs-is-mistaken-about-gold/ and shows the views on gold of a retired Goldman Sachs partner.

APR 14, 2020

By: Steven FeldmanCEO, Gold Bullion International ( www.bullioninternational.com)CEO, Auvere ( www.auvere.com)Retired partner, Goldman SachsCurrent Wealth Management Client, Goldman Sachs Private Bank
As a former partner of Goldman Sachs (GS) and current gold industry executive, it came as no surprise when dozens of customers and colleagues reached out to me this week to get my take on the latest research note from GS’s Investment Strategy Group (ISG).  In its note, ISG responds to a number of GS’s wealth management clients who had inquired about adding gold to their portfolios during these unprecedented

Read More »

March Roars in Like a Lion (Sprott Insights)

April 8, 2020

Gold continued to deliver strong relative performance and was up 3.95% on a year-to-date basis through March 31, 2020. This compares to a -19.60% first-quarter return for the S&P 500 Total Return Index.
Month of March 2020
Indicator
3/31/2020
2/29/2020
Change
% Chg
Analysis
Gold Bullion
$1,577
$1,586
($8.51)
(0.54)%
Gold flat in market chaos
Silver Bullion
$13.97
$16.67
($2.69)
(16.15)%
Silver more economic sensitive
Gold Equities (SGDM)1
$19.86
$22.66
($2.80)
(12.36)%
Gold equities in market storm
Gold Equities (GDX)2
$23.04
$26.22
($3.18)
(12.13)%
same as above
DXY US Dollar Index3
99.05
98.13
0.92
0.01%
U.S. dollar funding stress & hoarding
U.S. Treasury 10 YR Yield
0.67%
1.15%
(0.48)%
(47.71)%
U.S. Fed goes to zero rate policy
German Bund 10 YR Yield
(0.47)%
(0.61)%
0.14%
18.03%

Read More »

Market News Report: April 6, 2020 – April 10, 2020

April 6, 2020

The economic data releases are starting to show coronavirus crisis impact on the economy. Last week’s Thursday’s Unemployment Claims number has reached almost 7 million! And we will likely get more bad economic data this week. Let’s take a look at the details.
The week behind
Last week’s economic data releases have been overshadowed by the ongoing corona virus crisis developments again. And it wasn’t that surprising. However, Thursday’s weekly Unemployment Claims number hit record high again as it got close to 7 million! In the previous week it has been the first data to show impact of the pandemic on the U.S. economy. Last Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number release has also been worse than expected. However, the markets will pay much more attention to the next jobs data for the month of

Read More »

Germany Hoarding Gold – Anticipation of Currency Changes?

April 2, 2020

The following article appeared at https://www.voimagold.com/insight/germany-hoarding-gold-to-prepare-for-currency-reform-italy-dishoards:

Germany Hoarding Gold to Prepare For Currency Reform, Italy Dishoards

The Germans are hoarding gold. I estimate that the Germans own 9000 tonnes in private gold—nearly as much gold as the French and Italians have combined. What is their motivation?

World Gold Council (WGC) states there are roughly 198,000 tonnes of gold above ground, of which 35,000 tonnes is held by central banks. Who owns the remaining 155,000 tonnes? And where it is located? In a previous article I estimated that China holds over 20,000 tonnes in private gold (in China called the “People’s Gold”). Today, we will have a look at the largest economies in Europe: Germany, France,

Read More »

Gold Daily News: Tuesday, March 31

March 31, 2020

The gold futures contract lost 0.66% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate following last week’s Monday’s – Tuesday’s rally. The market reacted to the previous Sunday’s Fed unlimited Quantitative Easing announcement. Yellow metal has retraced all of the previous sell-off, as it got back close to March 9 medium-term high of $1,704.30. Since then, gold is trading within the mentioned short-term consolidation.

Gold is down 2.0% this morning, as it retraces some more of the recent rally. What about the other precious metals? Silver lost 2.77% on Monday and today it is 0.7% lower. Platinum lost 2.40% yesterday and today it is trading 1.1% lower. Palladium was unchanged on Monday. Today it is also unchanged. So precious metals are backing down slightly following last week’s rally.
Investors

Read More »

James Grant: Nobody Knows Anything

March 28, 2020

James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
Recorded: March 24, 2020
[T]his introduces the possibility of everything that gold bugs have been praying for.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT (EDITED)
Albert Lu: It’s another day of volatility for investors, as hope for a government stimulus package pushes the Dow Jones Industrial Average back above the 20,000 point mark. But how long will [it] last?
Joining me now is the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and the author of several books, including The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself.
Jim Grant, welcome. It’s a pleasure to have you on and I promised you just now that I will not require you to answer that question but I’m sure we’ll have plenty of things to talk about. How are you?
James Grant: I’m fine. Thank you,

Read More »

Sunshine Profits: Gold Daily News – Tuesday, March 24

March 24, 2020

The gold futures contract gained 5.59% on Monday following Sunday’s Fed unlimited Quantitative Easing announcement. Yellow metal has retraced almost half of its recent sell-off, as it got back above the $1,550 level yesterday. Today, gold is extending that short-term rally and it gets closer to March 9 medium-term high of $1,704.30.

Gold is rallying 7.0% today following Euro vs. U.S. dollar advance, among other factors. It gets closer to the mentioned medium-term high. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 7.07% on Monday and today it is gaining an additional 5.0%. Platinum has gained just 0.8% yesterday and today it is gaining 6.7%. Palladium gained 1.08% on Monday and today it rallies by almost 12%.
The financial markets react to the mentioned Sunday’s Fed announcement.

Read More »

Point of No Return

March 20, 2020

By John Hathaway
Credit Deflation and Gold
Gold and precious metals mining shares are casualties of panic selling across all financial markets. The scenario is similar to what happened in 2008 during the global financial crisis (GFC). When the general selling exhausted itself in late 2008, gold and mining shares delivered superior absolute and relative performance for the following three years. We believe that this pattern is likely to repeat following this sell-off.
While COVID-19 outbreak is grabbing the headlines, the far bigger story is the deflation of financial assets that it has triggered and the resulting loss of investment confidence. Markets that had been priced for perfection must now reckon with a likely recession, soaring fiscal deficits and the very real possibility of a

Read More »

Gold Daily News: Wednesday, March 18

March 18, 2020

The gold futures gained 2.64% on Tuesday, as it retraced some of the recent sell-off after bouncing off $1,450-1,500 price level. Yellow metal fell the lowest since late November of 2019 on Monday, before bouncing off new medium-term low of $1,450.90. Earlier last week the market bounced off new medium-term high of $1,704.30. Two weeks ago the gold price collapsed to the local low of $1,564 despite an ongoing corona virus scare. However, the gold price retraced all of the decline recently, as virus fears reappeared. Then on Thursday and Friday it has reversed sharply lower. Today gold is retracing some of yesterday’s rebound.

Gold is 1.5% down on Wednesday morning. What about the other precious metals? Silver lost 2.50% on Tuesday and today it is 3.3% lower, as it trades close to $12

Read More »

Gold Daily News: Thursday, February 20

February 20, 2020

The gold futures contract gained 0.51% on Wednesday, as it further extended its short-term uptrend. The price of gold broke slightly above its January 8 local high of $1,613.30, before closing the highest since the first half of 2013. Investors keep buying the safe-haven asset despite record-breaking stock market and rising U.S. dollar.

Gold is extending its short-term uptrend this morning, as it gains additional 0.4%. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 0.89% on Wednesday, as it broke slightly above its late January local high. The price remains above $18 mark. But it is declining 0.2% this morning. Platinum gained 1.07% yesterday, and today it is 0.7% lower. The metal remains at $1,000 mark. Palladium accelerated the uptrend once again on Wednesday, as it gained 2.95%.

Read More »

2020 Gold Price Forecast, Trends, & 5 Year Predictions

February 20, 2020

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver 

Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables, that even the most educated guess usually misses the mark.
Further, some forecasters base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation).
So instead, my gold price forecast for 2020 will look at the primary factors that impact the gold market to determine if each is likely to push the price higher or lower this year. I’ll conclude with the probable prices I see based on those factors, as well as some long-term projections.
These are the primary

Read More »

Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus

February 18, 2020

Coronavirus, the topic du jour. It is still the major threat for the global health and economy. But we should not forget about other geopolitical and economic developments. What do they imply for the gold market?
Coronavirus, China’s Economy and Gold Prices
The number of cases of coronavirus reported by the WHO have increased from 45,171 cases and 1,115 deaths by February 12 to 51,867 cases and 1,669 deaths by February 16, 2020. However, the number of new cases is slowing down, which suggests that the epidemic could reach a turning point within weeks. This is of key importance not only for the global health but also for the global economy, as the sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover. As a reminder, the quarantines of the whole cities like Wuhan and other

Read More »

Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15-30 Days

February 13, 2020

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600.  If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this year and to continue to move higher attempting to breach the $2100 level.  It is just a matter of time as far as we are concerned where Metals begin a massive upside rally as the global debt markets become an issue throughout the world.
Right now, there is a very clear opportunity for Gold to rally nearly $100 over the next few weeks.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting this really should begin very soon and will likely propel the price of Gold to levels above $1640

Read More »

Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15-30 Days

February 13, 2020

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600.  If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this year and to continue to move higher attempting to breach the $2100 level.  It is just a matter of time as far as we are concerned where Metals begin a massive upside rally as the global debt markets become an issue throughout the world.
Right now, there is a very clear opportunity for Gold to rally nearly $100 over the next few weeks.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting this really should begin very soon and will likely propel the price of Gold to levels above $1640

Read More »

Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

February 13, 2020

The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?
Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?
Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the

Read More »

Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

February 13, 2020

The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?
Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?
Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the

Read More »

Will New Coronavirus Kill Global Economy and Humanity?

February 4, 2020

Will New Coronavirus Kill Global Economy and Humanity, Making Precious Metals Shine?
The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency. What does it mean for the global economy and the gold market?
Will Coronavirus Kill Us All?
So it looks like not the recently feared nuclear war with the North Korea or Iran, but the virus outbreak will destroy humanity. Let it be, I won’t complain, I work from home, so I’m less likely to become infected!
OK, but jokes aside. The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019, is a serious threat. Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency. It is only the sixth declaration of

Read More »

How Effective Is Gold As a Hedge?

February 3, 2020

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com FEB 3, 2020

Gold has been a safe haven for literally thousands of years.
But how effective is it as a “hedge”?
A hedge is an asset that tends to rise when others fall. For example, an investor holding common stocks might find it advantageous to hold some gold too, since it has historically been strong during the worst stock market crashes.
But in the big picture, does it really pay to always have some gold in one’s portfolio?
History provides some clear answers. We analyzed several historical scenarios to see how a theoretical portfolio performed with various amounts of gold (including zero).

Our base portfolio starts with a 60% stock/40% bond mix. We used the S&P 500 for stocks, and the 10-year Treasury for bonds. As gold was added the

Read More »

Coronavirus Alert

January 27, 2020

“May you live in interesting times.”
It’s a famous curse, supposedly of Chinese origin. And it seems nearly as apt today as when it first came to the attention of the Western mainstream in the 1930s.
First quoted in print to a British politician, a much less famous Chamberlain named Austen, in 1936 the saying was quickly repeated again and again throughout the mid- to late-30s in media and speeches to sum up a tumultuous period which we all know now would capstone with WWII.
But it’s appeal was about far more than the rapid rise of –isms… facism, communism, nationalism. The world was healing…
Not only from the loss of 20 million souls to the bloodiest war it had ever known, and just beginning to show signs of recovery from America’s Great Depression…
But also from the

Read More »

Gold Bullion Likely to Test the Last Major Overhead Resistance Level

January 14, 2020

This article was originally published at Sprott.com
2019 marked the best performance for the precious metals complex in nearly a decade. Gold bullion closed the year at $1,517 (gaining 18.31% for the 12 months). Silver bullion ended the year at $17.85 (up 15.23% in 2019). Platinum climbed 21.56% in 2019, and palladium soared 54.24%. Gold mining equities showed notable strength, finishing 2019 up 46.97% as measured by Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).
Month of December 2019
Indicator
12/31/19
11/30/19
Change
% Chg
Analysis
Gold Bullion
$1,517
$1,464
$53.30
3.64%
Gold correction has ended; up leg resumes
Silver Bullion
$17.85
$17.03
$0.82
4.83%
Silver just shy of $18 level 
Gold Equities (SGDM) 1
$25.15
$23.34
$1.81
7.77%
Gold equities correction over; up leg resumes
Gold Equities (GDX) 2

Read More »

Stocks at record highs… will it last?

January 14, 2020

Do you remember last December? 
The stock market wasn’t the raging bull it is today.
It was reeling from a sharp correction. All the gains of the year were quickly erased on Trade War fears and investors’ waning confidence in the Fed’s decision to raise rates for the 10th time since the Great Recession.
How times have changed…
One year… three Fed rate cuts… and a bailed-out Treasury repo market later and the Dow is inching towards 30,000. That’s a 30% gain in 12 months… tripling the annual rate of return for the past 90 years.
No one saw that astronomical rise in stocks coming last December.
But that’s the reality we live in today.  Today’s market is ruled by the Fed.
It’s mission: inflate… and keep history’s longest economic expansion going…
So far it’s working.
Money is

Read More »