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Gold Daily News: Thursday, February 20

5 days ago

The gold futures contract gained 0.51% on Wednesday, as it further extended its short-term uptrend. The price of gold broke slightly above its January 8 local high of $1,613.30, before closing the highest since the first half of 2013. Investors keep buying the safe-haven asset despite record-breaking stock market and rising U.S. dollar.

Gold is extending its short-term uptrend this morning, as it gains additional 0.4%. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 0.89% on Wednesday, as it broke slightly above its late January local high. The price remains above $18 mark. But it is declining 0.2% this morning. Platinum gained 1.07% yesterday, and today it is 0.7% lower. The metal remains at $1,000 mark. Palladium accelerated the uptrend once again on Wednesday, as it gained 2.95%.

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2020 Gold Price Forecast, Trends, & 5 Year Predictions

5 days ago

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver 

Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables, that even the most educated guess usually misses the mark.
Further, some forecasters base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation).
So instead, my gold price forecast for 2020 will look at the primary factors that impact the gold market to determine if each is likely to push the price higher or lower this year. I’ll conclude with the probable prices I see based on those factors, as well as some long-term projections.
These are the primary

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Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus

6 days ago

Coronavirus, the topic du jour. It is still the major threat for the global health and economy. But we should not forget about other geopolitical and economic developments. What do they imply for the gold market?
Coronavirus, China’s Economy and Gold Prices
The number of cases of coronavirus reported by the WHO have increased from 45,171 cases and 1,115 deaths by February 12 to 51,867 cases and 1,669 deaths by February 16, 2020. However, the number of new cases is slowing down, which suggests that the epidemic could reach a turning point within weeks. This is of key importance not only for the global health but also for the global economy, as the sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover. As a reminder, the quarantines of the whole cities like Wuhan and other

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Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15-30 Days

11 days ago

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600.  If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this year and to continue to move higher attempting to breach the $2100 level.  It is just a matter of time as far as we are concerned where Metals begin a massive upside rally as the global debt markets become an issue throughout the world.
Right now, there is a very clear opportunity for Gold to rally nearly $100 over the next few weeks.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting this really should begin very soon and will likely propel the price of Gold to levels above $1640

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Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15-30 Days

11 days ago

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600.  If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this year and to continue to move higher attempting to breach the $2100 level.  It is just a matter of time as far as we are concerned where Metals begin a massive upside rally as the global debt markets become an issue throughout the world.
Right now, there is a very clear opportunity for Gold to rally nearly $100 over the next few weeks.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting this really should begin very soon and will likely propel the price of Gold to levels above $1640

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Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

12 days ago

The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?
Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?
Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the

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Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

12 days ago

The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?
Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?
Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the

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Will New Coronavirus Kill Global Economy and Humanity?

20 days ago

Will New Coronavirus Kill Global Economy and Humanity, Making Precious Metals Shine?
The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency. What does it mean for the global economy and the gold market?
Will Coronavirus Kill Us All?
So it looks like not the recently feared nuclear war with the North Korea or Iran, but the virus outbreak will destroy humanity. Let it be, I won’t complain, I work from home, so I’m less likely to become infected!
OK, but jokes aside. The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019, is a serious threat. Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency. It is only the sixth declaration of

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How Effective Is Gold As a Hedge?

22 days ago

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com FEB 3, 2020

Gold has been a safe haven for literally thousands of years.
But how effective is it as a “hedge”?
A hedge is an asset that tends to rise when others fall. For example, an investor holding common stocks might find it advantageous to hold some gold too, since it has historically been strong during the worst stock market crashes.
But in the big picture, does it really pay to always have some gold in one’s portfolio?
History provides some clear answers. We analyzed several historical scenarios to see how a theoretical portfolio performed with various amounts of gold (including zero).

Our base portfolio starts with a 60% stock/40% bond mix. We used the S&P 500 for stocks, and the 10-year Treasury for bonds. As gold was added the

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Coronavirus Alert

29 days ago

“May you live in interesting times.”
It’s a famous curse, supposedly of Chinese origin. And it seems nearly as apt today as when it first came to the attention of the Western mainstream in the 1930s.
First quoted in print to a British politician, a much less famous Chamberlain named Austen, in 1936 the saying was quickly repeated again and again throughout the mid- to late-30s in media and speeches to sum up a tumultuous period which we all know now would capstone with WWII.
But it’s appeal was about far more than the rapid rise of –isms… facism, communism, nationalism. The world was healing…
Not only from the loss of 20 million souls to the bloodiest war it had ever known, and just beginning to show signs of recovery from America’s Great Depression…
But also from the

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Gold Bullion Likely to Test the Last Major Overhead Resistance Level

January 14, 2020

This article was originally published at Sprott.com
2019 marked the best performance for the precious metals complex in nearly a decade. Gold bullion closed the year at $1,517 (gaining 18.31% for the 12 months). Silver bullion ended the year at $17.85 (up 15.23% in 2019). Platinum climbed 21.56% in 2019, and palladium soared 54.24%. Gold mining equities showed notable strength, finishing 2019 up 46.97% as measured by Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).
Month of December 2019
Indicator
12/31/19
11/30/19
Change
% Chg
Analysis
Gold Bullion
$1,517
$1,464
$53.30
3.64%
Gold correction has ended; up leg resumes
Silver Bullion
$17.85
$17.03
$0.82
4.83%
Silver just shy of $18 level 
Gold Equities (SGDM) 1
$25.15
$23.34
$1.81
7.77%
Gold equities correction over; up leg resumes
Gold Equities (GDX) 2

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Stocks at record highs… will it last?

January 14, 2020

Do you remember last December? 
The stock market wasn’t the raging bull it is today.
It was reeling from a sharp correction. All the gains of the year were quickly erased on Trade War fears and investors’ waning confidence in the Fed’s decision to raise rates for the 10th time since the Great Recession.
How times have changed…
One year… three Fed rate cuts… and a bailed-out Treasury repo market later and the Dow is inching towards 30,000. That’s a 30% gain in 12 months… tripling the annual rate of return for the past 90 years.
No one saw that astronomical rise in stocks coming last December.
But that’s the reality we live in today.  Today’s market is ruled by the Fed.
It’s mission: inflate… and keep history’s longest economic expansion going…
So far it’s working.
Money is

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Druckenmiller Bullish On Copper, Gundlach Says Time To Play Defense

December 20, 2019

Dec 19, 2019 03:47 pm
By Albert Lu
A dovish Federal Reserve and strong labor market make a recession in 2020 unlikely, according to two market experts.
“The odds are against a recession occurring before the end of 2020,” said DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach in an interview with CNBC.
“What’s happened is consumer confidence has really held up … Leading indicators are low right now.”
Stan Druckenmiller, the former chairman and president of Duquesne Capital, concurs. In a recent interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker, Druckenmiller explained,
“I think we’re close enough to the election, at least we can breathe for a few months. I don’t expect any dramatic policy that can overwhelm the favorable backdrop of monetary stimulus and a decent economy.”
Nevertheless, both men agree the

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Silver Mine Grades are Plummeting…

December 16, 2019

What Does it Mean for Your Holdings?

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.comDEC 16, 2019

Silver mines aren’t pulling the same amount of metal out of the ground as they used to, which means less and less silver is coming to market.
Why is less silver coming out of the ground? There are a number of reasons, but there’s one in particular that has sidestepped the notice of most investors, and it may surprise you to find out just how bad the situation has gotten. Let’s look at that reason and what it means for you…
Of course, long-time readers have heard me outline before that new supply from silver mining is locked into a structural decline.
“Structural,” meaning there are barriers and impediments embedded into the silver mining industry itself that cannot be easily or quickly

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The Last Hawk Flew to Heaven

December 11, 2019

Sad moment. Paul Volcker, the former Fed Chairman went to Bank of Heaven. We are not reporting this news due to the implications for gold prices, but as an opportunity to reflect on changes in the central banking since the time of Tall Paul and on their consequences for the gold market.
Tall Paul Has Gone
A great man passed away. Literally. Paul Volcker – who died on Monday, probably due to prostate cancer complications, at 92 – stood 6 feet and 7 inches high, or more than 2 meters. But Volcker’s impressive height wasn’t the only thing he could boast of. Our Readers are aware that we are not fans of central bankers, but we have to admit that Volcker not only literally but also figuratively cast a long shadow across the Fed, standing out by both past and current standards.
First of all,

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The Prospects of Gold’s Next Upswing

November 26, 2019

The USD Index rallied on Friday, and gold responded with an intraday decline – that’s normal. What’s not necessarily normal is the size of the daily change in gold compared to the size of USD’s rally.
USD Index Bounces Higher

Namely, gold futures ended Friday’s session exactly where they had closed on Thursday. There was no daily change in gold, even though it – theoretically – should have declined given USD’s upswing. What does it mean? Gold’s resilience means that gold has probably not finished its short-term upswing yet.
The general rule for any market is that if it doesn’t move in the way it “should” move given what’s going on in the world, it means that – for whatever reason – it’s not the direction in which the market is going to move next. This trading technique doesn’t specify

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“You Stupid Gold Bugs! Trade War Risks Are Over So Sell Your Gold”

November 20, 2019

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.comNOV 20, 2019

I was stupefied at what I was reading…
A Bloomberg article earlier this month reported that JP Morgan and Citibank were significantly reducing their gold positions or closing them out entirely. Based on the article, it seems they made this decision based on the flimsiest of changes in the market:
The US-China trade war seems to be easing up, which led to gold’s biggest weekly loss in three years
China didn’t buy gold last month, after doing so for 10 consecutive months
Gold imports to India have fallen four consecutive months, and are down 46% over the past year
Negative-yielding bonds globally dropped to $12.5 trillion, the lowest since July.
I’m flabbergasted that those were the reasons they closed out their gold positions. What

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Rick Rule on Gold

October 30, 2019

This article was originally published at Sprott.com

Gold and “The Prettiest Mare at the Slaughterhouse”

[embedded content]
Rick Rule, President and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., shares how the worldwide explosion of negative yielding debt shapes his bullish outlook on gold. He examines the impact that a “war on savers” has on the global financial system and on precious metals, and he shares his ideas on where inflation fits into the equation. Rule explains his outlook for the future of the monetary system by analyzing the evolving relationship between cryptocurrencies, precious metals, and fiat currencies.

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Global Industrial Slump and Brexit Dance Go On. Will Gold Bop?

October 30, 2019

The Brexit saga continues. Both the U.S. and China’s industrial sectors suffer from the trade war. How will the Fed react to these downside risks tomorrow? The expectation is that it’ll cut rates, but will that really happen? And how will gold take to that?
Brexit Dance Goes On
Last week, we wrote about the Brexit saga, diving into the latest battles between Johnson and Parliament. But the drama has not ended yet. As we concluded one week ago, “Brexit is far from over, and British politics may surprise us again.” Indeed, Johnson wanted to call a snap general election in December to gain more leverage in the House of Commons, but the UK parliament has rejected Johnson’s proposal. For the third time. But Boris does not like losing, so he proposed today a new bill that lowers the number of

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Gold, the Shining Star Among Commodities

October 24, 2019

Gold is the most effective commodity investment, yet it is under-invested, the WGC reports. What makes it special and deserving of our focus? And how to translate that focus into an appropriate allocation within one’s portfolio?
Gold is Unique Commodity. Or… Maybe Not?
Gold is often included into commodities. It seems natural, gold is a metal, after all. And just like other raw materials, it is used in the production of manufactured goods. But gold is much more than that. According to the recent report published by World Gold Council, there are six features which differentiate gold from other commodities:
Gold has delivered better long-term, risk-adjusted returns than other commodities;
Gold is a more effective diversifier than other commodities
Gold outperforms commodities in low

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The Duel Between Johnson and Parliament. Will Gold Win?

October 23, 2019

Boris Johnson struggles to push the Brexit agreement through the British Parliament. For it can bite back! Who wins this battle? One could hope that gold, but this is not so certain…
Johnson’s Struggle, Explained
On Thursday, the breaking news came out that the EU and the UK reached agreement on Brexit. The agreement scrapped the Irish backstop that had formed the bulk of the opposition to the former proposals. Naive who believed that it would change something! We have to admit that we thought for a while that finally the Brexit saga was coming to an end.
But the British government still has a long way to go! On Saturday, the Parliament voted for a change to the sequencing of the ratification of the deal. It means that they withheld support on Johnson’s Brexit deal until all the necessary

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Don’t Look Now, But India Is Loading Up on Silver

October 23, 2019

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilverOCT 22, 2019

It’s quite possible that a new catalyst for silver is emerging.
It didn’t make a lot of headlines, but India’s silver imports have seen a big jump. So big that we need to talk about it, because if this trend continues it could have a sizable impact on the tiny silver market.
There’s a chart I want you to see, but first…
How Important is Indian Demand?
We all know that India is a big gold buyer. The country is the second-largest global consumer of gold, but there’s evidence they’re the biggest consumer of silver—some think it might be China, but their data is not always transparent.
Either way, India represents a bigger portion of global silver demand than most investors realize. Between jewelry, religious objects, and investment, one of

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The Caveman’s Diary 2019: “Gold Good… Stocks Bad… Get More Gold”

October 17, 2019

By Jeff Clark Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com

A textbook in my Master of Psychology program theorized that most things in life come down to core drives—food, shelter, sex, etc. Throw in Freud’s pain and pleasure principals and this is supposedly what drives everything we do.
We had a good time poking fun of simplistic theories as to what motivates people. Human emotions and motivations are complex.
Except when it comes to money.
Our wallets are more often than not ruled by our most primal emotions, greed and fear, dating back to the days we huddled in caves. Despite all our sophistication and modern technology, most investors still think like a caveman/cavewoman when it comes to investing.

And what’s happening in the markets right now is so clear that even a caveman

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Gold, the Ultimate Safe Haven Asset. A Looming Nobel Prize?

October 15, 2019

Yesterday, the Nobel prizes in economics were awarded. Unfortunately, gold has been omitted and got nothing. How unfair! But looking at the Dutch central bank press release, gold would have much higher chances if they were the ones granting the prizes and not the Swedish central bank!
2019 Nobel in Economics and Gold
Yesterday was a big day! At least for all those boring economists and similar bean-counters. The Nobel Prize in economics was awarded. Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer became 2019 laureates for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.
Nice! But, dear Nobel Committee, we also have great ideas how to reduce poverty in the world. Just give everyone some gold! We know, that’s not the quick road to wealth, but whatever the current outlook, gold

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The Fed Grows Concerned – Should Gold Investors Do the Same?

October 11, 2019

The Fed released the minutes from its last meeting yesterday. What can we learn from the new light they shine on the U.S. monetary policy? How will it affect the gold market?
Minutes Show That FOMC Members Are More Worried Now
The minutes from the Sep FOMC meeting show that the Fed is more worried about the economy. The Committee members noted that downside risks had become more pronounced due to the increased trade conflicts, more intensified geopolitical uncertainty, and more fragile prospects for global and domestic economic growth:
Participants generally judged that downside risks to the outlook for economic activity had increased somewhat since their July meeting, particularly those stemming from trade policy uncertainty and conditions abroad. In addition, al­though readings on the

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Millionaire Technical Analyst Says This about Gold Right Now

October 10, 2019

By Jeff Clark Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com

We don’t employ technical analysis that much, one reason being we’re buying gold and silver for what we believe will be a major shift in our markets, economy and currency. The strategy then, is just keep accumulating and preparing for that shift.
But I know someone who is very good at technical analysis. So good, in fact, he’s a multi-millionaire primarily from trading via technical analysis.
His name is Dominick Graziano, and we’ve become friends over the years. Despite our friendship, he absolutely refuses to tell me what I want to hear (gold’s going through the roof!). So I know when I get a chart from him that it will be dispassionate and solely about a trade he thinks will make him money. I also know I should probably pay

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Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment

October 7, 2019

Many believe that negative interest rates will never arrive to the United States. This can’t possibly happen here. The discussions of their theoretical benefits almost remind you of the not-in-my-backyard mentality. But this is not true – they are already present in America. Hard to believe it? Hiding in plain sight, let’s take it a step further and look at gold in the negative real interest rates environment.
 
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment
Many people believe that negative interest rates are the ailment of Europe and Japan, and that they will never materialize in the United States. But this is not true. They are already present in America. Can’t believe it? Please take a look at the chart below.
Chart 1: Yields on the US 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury in 2019

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Is Reserve Bank of Australia a New Friend of Gold?

October 1, 2019

Reserve Bank of Australia joined the chorus of easing central banks, cutting interest rates to record lows. Predictably, that sent the Aussie dollar plunging. Should gold bulls cheer this move?
Reserve Bank of Australia Slashes Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official interest rate from 1.00 percent to 0.75 percent earlier today. As the chart below shows, the 0.25 percentage point moved the interest rate to a record low level, following cuts in June and July.
Chart 1: RBA’s cash rate target from February 2000 to October 2019.

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe explained the move as follows:
The Board took the decision to lower interest rates further today to support employment and income growth and to provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent

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Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds

September 21, 2019

Teaser:
The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. Isn’t this economic madness? We invite you to read our today’s article about the negative interest rates and find out what they imply for the gold market.
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds
 The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German government bonds went negative for the first time ever, while Nordea Bank, a leading Danish bank, said it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate mortgages with zero interest, as well as 30-year mortgages at minus 0.5 percent. Isn’t this economic madness? And what does it imply for the gold

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Carney Urges Libra-Like Reserve Currency to End Dollar Dominance

August 25, 2019

As per article authored by Brian Swint and published by Bloomberg News on Aug. 23, 2019:
Mark Carney laid out a radical proposal for an overhaul of the global financial system that would eventually replace the dollar as a reserve currency with a Libra-like virtual one.
Just a few months before he steps down as Bank of England governor, Carney offered his vision for the international economy at a time of sweeping change. Trade wars and the threat of currency wars are hurting growth and upending multilateral cooperation, while central banks are trapped in a low interest-rate world as they struggle to revive inflation.
“The combination of heightened economic policy uncertainty, outright protectionism and concerns that further, negative shocks could not be adequately offset because of limited

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