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Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes

5 days ago

The current high inflation could theoretically transform into hyperinflation, disinflation, stagflation, or deflation. What does each mean for gold?
Inflation, inflation, inflation. We all know that prices have surged recently. And we all know that high inflation is likely to stay with us for a while, even if we assume that the CPI annual rate has already peaked, which is not so obvious. But let’s look beyond the nearest horizon and think about what lies ahead after months of high inflation, and what consequences it could have for the gold market.
From the logical point of view, there are three options. Inflation rates could accelerate further, leading to hyperinflation in an extreme case. They could remain more or less the same, resulting possibly in stagflation when the pace of GDP

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Is Cash Trash? Economic Analyst Lyn Alden Weighs In

18 days ago

With global central banks printing trillions of new currency these days, the voices claiming that “Cash Is trash” appear to have a valid point. 
Banks give us no return on cash savings. And inflation is swiftly eating away at its purchasing power. 
So what is the future outlook for the world’s major fiat currencies? 
And are there better stores of value we should consider using instead of paper cash? 
We invited economic analyst Lyn Alden to answer these very questions. 
She sees the US dollar continuing to lose its prominence against other global currencies as the world moves to de-dollarize. 
And she sees ALL fiat currencies devaluing against other assets, particularly tangible ones. 
To understand the implications of this erosion of fiat purchasing power, watch

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The Fiat Free-For-All: Currency Creation vs. Gold and Silver Production

29 days ago

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com JUN 28, 2021

Most headlines about the Fed’s open market committee (FOMC) announcement focused on the potential change in interest rates. What went largely ignored was that it will continue to purchase $120 billion in bonds every month.
The central bank said it “might” raise rates in 2023, but there was NO hesitation to continue full steam ahead with its aggressive bond-buying program.
This QE program amounts to $1.44 TRILLION annually in new bank reserves (which are used to purchase Treasuries). And it’s all created out of thin air.
To put that amount into perspective, the market capitalization of IBM is $130 billion. So the Fed creates the currency equivalent of another IBM nearly every month.
That’s a lot of currency. If you live to 95 you

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INFLATION SPIKES! How Will That Impact Your Wealth?

June 15, 2021

Inflation just took a massive spike higher. 
Just-released data shows core inflation has suddenly soared to levels not seen since the early 1990s. 
High inflation is a wealth-killer. Draining the purchasing power of your income and savings, while crushing you under a rising cost of living. 
How worried should you be about it now? 
To answer that, we brought in an expert: a former advisor to the Federal Reserve (whose $trillions in monetary stimulus over the past year are a primary cause of the inflation surge we’re seeing today). 
In this video, Danielle DiMartino Booth breaks down the recent massive spike higher in the core inflation rate data.
She also shares which asset classes appear prudent given the highly uncertain environment now facing today’s investors

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Rising Cost Pressure – What Will Mr. Powell and Mr. Gold Do?

May 26, 2021

The latest IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI signals very fast economic expansion – but also strong inflationary pressure. Good news for gold, overall.
On Friday, the recent IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI has been published . There are two pieces of news for gold – one good and one bad. Let’s start with the negative information. The report signals an unprecedentedly fast expansion in business activity in May. Indeed, the composite index surge from 63.5 in April to 68.1 this month established a new record.
More importantly, both manufacturing and services sectors’ markets have shown strong growth. The former index rose from 60.5 in April to 61.5 in May (also a new record), while the PMI for services soared from 64.7 to 70.1, marking the sharpest jump since data collection for the

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Commodities Boom Only In ‘Early Innings’

May 16, 2021

This perspective on the markets is from our friend Adam Taggart at the newly-launched Wealthion channel; we hope you enjoy it.

Back in December, Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen predicted a massive boom in commodity prices was dead ahead.
Not many others shared that view back then.
But, boy, was he ever right.
Commodity prices have exploded in the five months since that interview was recorded.
And more important, in his eyes we ain’t seen nothin’ yet. He predicts commodity prices are going to continue heading higher, a LOT higher, from here.
Why?
Infrastructure around the world is being rebuilt — much of it badly needed — to the tune of tens of $trillions over the coming decade.
And in the more immediate future, Steen calculates weakening GDP growth will force

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Sprott’s “Nature’s First Green is Silver”

May 6, 2021

BY Paul Wong | Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Gold Gains 3.60%, Silver Climbs 6.14%
April provided precious metals markets redemption from a challenging first quarter, with gold finishing the month at $1,769.13 per ounce, rising 3.60%. Silver rose 6.14%, platinum climbed 1.34% and palladium gained 11.95%. Gold mining equities added 6.16%. For the twelve-month period ended April 30, 2021, gold climbed 4.90%, silver gained 73.13%, platinum rose 54.85%, palladium returned 49.25% and gold equities gained 0.77%.1,4
Month of April 2021
Indicator
4/30/2021
3/31/2021
Change
Mo % Chg
YTD % Chg
Analysis on April
Gold Bullion2
$1,769.13
$1,707.71
$61.42
3.60%
(6.81)%
Held support, small base pattern
Silver Bullion3
$25.92
$24.42
$1.50
6.14%
(1.84)%
Maintaining high level correction
Gold Senior Equities

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Gold Sings a “Hot N Cold” Song

April 30, 2021

Although spring has begun, we can still find ourselves in winter, or even summer. Gold may benefit from such a seasonal aberration.
Oh, how wonderful, spring has finally started, hasn’t it? We have April, after all. Well, in calendar terms, it’s indeed spring, but economically it can be summer already or still the beginning of winter. How so? I refer here to Kondratiev cycles (also known as Kondratieff cycles or Kondratyev cycles).
As a reminder, Nikolai Kondratiev was a Russian economist who noted in the 1920s that capitalist economies experience long super-cycles, lasting 40-60 years (yup, it’s not a very precise concept). His idea was that capitalism was not on an inevitable path to destruction, but that it was rather sustainable and cyclical in nature. Stalin didn’t like this

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Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep?

April 29, 2021

The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged. However, the lack of any action amid economic recovery is dovish – good news for gold.
On Wednesday (Apr. 28), the FOMC has published its newest statement on monetary policy. The statement wasn’t significantly altered. The main change is that the Fed has noticed the progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, and that, in consequence, the economic outlook has improved.
Previously, the US central bank said that indicators of economic activity and employment “have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak”, while now these indicators “have strengthened”, while “the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement”. So, the Fed acknowledged the fact that

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Will Euro and Gold Go Up With Pandemic Upturn in Euro Area?

April 27, 2021

The worst may already be behind the euro area’s economy. This bodes well – both the euro, as well as gold, can benefit from it.
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank met last week, keeping its monetary policy unchanged. The inaction was widely expected – no surprises here. The June meeting could be much more interesting as the ECB will have to decide whether or not to slow its bond buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that was accelerated in the second quarter of the year. Given the dovish stance of the European policymakers, and the bank’s pledge to provide the markets with favorable financing conditions during the pandemic, we shouldn’t expect any tapering soon.
Certainly, there are important dovish parts of the latest ECB’s statement on its monetary policy

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Will a Fiscal Revolution Raise Gold to the Throne?

April 23, 2021

Revolution, baby! There is growing acceptance for an aggressive fiscal policy, which could be supportive for gold prices from the fundamental, long-term point of view.
We live in turbulent times. The pandemic is still raging and will most likely have lost lasting effects on our society. But a revolution is also happening right before our eyes. And I don’t mean another storming of the U.S. Capitol or the clash of individual investors with big fish on Wall Street. I have in mind something less spectacular but potentially more influential: a macroeconomic revolution.
I refer here to the growing acceptance of easy fiscal policy . In the aftermath of the Great Recession , the central banks adopted an aggressive monetary policy , slashing interest rates to almost zero and introducing

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“This Looks Like The Market Peak”

April 3, 2021

Stocks, houses, commodities, Bitcoin – the price of nearly everything is up double digits vs last years pre-coronavirus highs. 
Have the trillions in stimulus ushered in a new bull market in, well, everything? Or have they helped blow the biggest asset price bubble in history?
Macro analyst Wolf Richter suspects the latter. And he doesn’t think we have much time left before it bursts.
In an interview with our friend Adam Taggart, Wolf concludes we’re seeing a mania that will likely pop in the same manner as all that have preceded it, he has another reason for expecting lower asset prices ahead.
We are clearly heading down the path towards much higher inflation. 
And in Wolf’s eyes, that will eventually force the Federal Reserve to start tightening at this point —

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Want To Invest In Farmland? Here’s How

March 27, 2021

Adam Taggart, PeakProsperity.com MAR 26, 2021

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Farmland is a “holy grail” asset class for many investors.
It’s tangible, produces income, and has inherent underlying value — making it a great inflation hedge.
It’s supply constrained. Mother Nature isn’t making any more of it… and in total, farm acreage around the world is being lost to development, drought, etc.
Historically it’s an asset class that produces double-digit annual returns while remaining largely uncorrelated with the stock market, making it a valuable component for portfolio diversification.
And even better, it offers the chance to do well by doing good. There are increasing opportunities to convert poorly-managed conventional farmland to organic status through sustainable practices AND command much

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After The Fed Week – What’s Next? Part II

March 22, 2021

In the first part of this research article, we shared more detail related to the Excess Phase Peak technical pattern that is setting up in the NASDAQ and to highlight the validity of our Gann/Fibonacci Technical research which suggested a peak in the markets may set up sometime after April 1, 2021.  We’ve received many questions and comments from our readers and followers related to these articles.  Many people seem to believe we are calling for an April 1 market peak based on this research, yet the technical patterns we are highlighting suggest a longer-term market peak may already be setting up. 
In this second part of our more detailed “what next” article, my research team and I will highlight exactly why we believe traders and investors need to be prepared for an extended technical

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The Stock Market Crash Prep Kit for Silver & Gold Investors

March 17, 2021

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com MAR 17, 2021

When the topic of a stock market crash comes up, the #1 question we get from gold and silver investors is this: won’t gold and silver crash, too? And if so, should I sell my bullion now and rebuy after the crash?
It’s an important topic, because while Mike and I are convinced gold and silver are headed much higher, one’s strategy can impact how much they profit. Or how little.
We don’t know how big a crash might be, and we don’t pretend to know the timing, but let’s look at the best ways for gold and silver investors to prepare for this likelihood.
The best place to start is by asking this question…
Should Gold & Silver Investors Fear a Stock Market Crash?
While no two selloffs are identical, the best clue we have about how gold

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Inflation Or Deflation? Here’s How It Will All End

March 8, 2021

Adam Taggart, PeakProsperity.com MAR 5, 2021

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Our friend Adam Taggart interviews highly-respected market researcher Luke Gromen about the three massive threats facing the global economy at this unique period in history:
1. The first bursting global sovereign debt bubble in over 100 years…
2. The first time in 50+ years that foreign central banks are no longer financing the US economy (i.e., they have stopped growing their holdings of US Treasurys)…
3. The US’ long-standing “petrodollar” advantage is eroding as other countries increasingly strike deals to trade key commodities in non-USD currencies…
As these challenges mount, how will they resolve?
Will increasing weakness cause defaults on the debts that can’t be serviced? (“deflation”) Or will the central planners “do

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A Market Crash AND High Inflation?

February 13, 2021

Adam Taggart, PeakProsperity.com FEB 12, 2021

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Imagine for a moment that the price of all your investments — your stocks, your retirement portfolio, your house — suddenly drop in half this year. Now imagine that on top of that inflation suddenly picks up, making your cost of living skyrocket.
That would be pretty awful, right?
Well, this might not be just some theoretical thought exercise.
Our friend Adam Taggart recently sat down with highly respected financial researcher Jesse Felder to discuss how the twin dangers of a market crash and higher inflation actually could indeed happen in the near future.
For many months Mike Maloney and Adam Taggart both have been sharing the mounting abundance of data points that reveal

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STOCK WARS! The People Rise Up Against Wall Street

January 30, 2021

Adam Taggart, PeakProsperity.com JAN 29, 2021

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An epic David-vs-Goliath battle has erupted on Wall Street.
Millions of individual investors have banded together using Reddit chat boards, Twitter and other forms of social media to wage concentrated attacks against large hedge funds who were recklessly (and possibly illegally) over-shorting the stocks of weak companies.
This has resulted in a series of “Infinite Short Squeezes” that has rocketed the prices of previously-troubled stocks like GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) by thousands of percent over the past two weeks, creating massive losses for the over-exposed hedge funds — a number of whom now find themselves at risk of insolvency from the damage.
To break down exactly what’s going on here, our

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2021 Gold Price Prediction, Trends, and 5-Year Forecast

January 18, 2021

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver 

Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables, that even the experts usually miss the mark.
Further, some forecasters base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices, as I’ll show below).
But there is value in considering predictions. It can solidify why one has invested, offer factors that may have been overlooked, or even cause one to revise their expectations.
So while we take predictions with a grain of salt, let’s look at what might be ahead for gold price in 2021 and the next 5 years. We’ll first summarize

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Gold Under Fed’s New Monetary Regime

October 4, 2020

Did you believe that the monetary policy of Ben Bernanke in a response to the Great Recession was extraordinary? Nah, Bernanke was an amateur compared to Jerome Powell. The latter quickly reintroduced ZIRP, implemented unlimited quantitative easing, and provided bailouts to Wall Street – and now he risks higher inflation as a result.
In August 2020, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his Jackson Hole speech, unveiling a new monetary framework in the process. He announced a flexible average inflation targeting strategy (FAIT). The new regime implies that when the inflation undershoots its target in one period, the US central bank will try to push inflation above the target in the next period to compensate for the previous shortfalls. In other words, after periods of persistently

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Fed Not Thinking about Rate Hikes. Maybe Thinking about Gold?

September 29, 2020

The Fed Vice Chair says that the Fed will not even think about hiking interest rates until the inflation reaches 2 percent. Meanwhile, the price of gold decreases further. What is exactly happening in the gold market?
Over the last week, several Fed officials spoke publicly with the purpose of convincing investors that their new policy strategy would be positive for the economy. Powell himself testified three times before Congress. However, the most interesting remarks were delivered by Richard Clarida, Fed Vice-Chair.
On Wednesday, he told Bloomberg Television that the FOMC would not even think about hiking the federal funds rate until the inflation reaches 2 percent:
Rates will be at the current level, which is basically zero, until actual observed PCE inflation has reached 2%. That’s

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Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold?

September 22, 2020

The number of new daily infections in Europe is rapidly increasing, even reaching new heights in several countries. That is just another reminder that the second wave in fall or winter is upon us.
Yes, I know. You are all fed up reading about the coronavirus. And yet, the coronavirus is not fed up with spreading around the globe. The number of new daily infections keeps going up, as the chart below shows.

Most significantly, the coronavirus cases are in a dramatic rise across Europe. The weekly cases have now exceeded the reported levels when the pandemic first peaked in Europe back in March. Furthermore, the number of new daily infections has also reached record highs in several countries, such as Spain or France, as shown in the chart below.

Without a doubt, the improved testing

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Is Silver the Next Tesla?

September 14, 2020

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com SEP 14, 2020

It’s no secret that one of the Nasdaq’s best performing stocks this year has been Tesla. Its meteoric rise, until recently, flashed dollar signs in the dreams of its investors.
Given silver’s historical volatility, a question dawned on me: could silver log a similar runaway price advance in the not-too-distant future?
It’s a fair question. Not only can silver be highly volatile, but potentially life-changing catalysts are staring us in the face. So let’s have a little fun and see if silver could have a comparable parabolic run…
The Core Reason for Silver’s Volatility
Long-time silver investors already know this, but the primary reason the silver price is so volatile is because it’s a teeny tiny market. It takes less cash coming in

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Unemployment Rate Drops. Will It Drag Gold Down?

September 8, 2020

The U.S. labor market improved in August, although headlines paint too rosy a picture. What does it all mean for the gold market?
Great news for the U.S. labor market: according to the BLS, the American economy regained 1.4 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time in the pandemic era! To be more precise, the unemployment rate declined from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August, as the chart below shows.

Importantly, the fall in the unemployment rate was bigger than expected – and it was accompanied by an increase in the labor-force participation rate, from 61.4 to 61.7 percent, which makes the decline in the unemployment rate even better.
The headline numbers are, thus, negative for the gold market. They reflect improvements in the labor

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Pension Funds Join the Gold Party

September 4, 2020

Things Are About to Get Interesting

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver SEP 4, 2020

Today, institutional participation – the enormous Wall St and global wealth management and investment firms and their clients from hedge funds to pension funds – in the gold market is minimal.
But with interest rates near zero globally, we’re seeing signs that this is changing rapidly.
The latest such news was first brought to our attention by our investor, Gold Bullion International, who services institutions like these: the Ohio Police and Fire Pension fund announced it will allocate 5% of its assets to gold.
This follows on the heels of other institutional investors that bought gold or silver in Q2, but it’s the first major pension fund this year to publicly announce it has entered the gold

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Gold Needs to “Glow Up”

August 27, 2020

BY Peter Grosskopf | Tuesday, August 25, 2020
As of August 24, gold bullion1 has gained 27.13% YTD and 39.74% YOY. Gold mining equities (SGDM)2 are up 38.85% YTD and 61.54% YOY. This compares to 7.55% YTD and 11.96% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index.3  Silver has posted outsized gains, climbing 49.03% YTD and 50.00% YOY.
Gold is a Mandatory Portfolio Asset
Now that gold has powered over $2,000, it’s an excellent time to take stock of what has been accomplished by the monetary metal and what may lie next. As for my Gen-Z “Glow Up” reference (and more below), conversations with my 16-year-old daughter are a constant reminder that I, too, like the gold market, need some updating and modernization.   
Most importantly, in our view, it has been established as a baseline that a diversified

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FOMC Minutes Push Gold Down

August 25, 2020

July FOMC minutes hit the gold prices. But what’s next for the yellow metal?
The key event last week was the publication of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. After their release, the U.S. dollar jumped, while the price of gold dropped, as the chart below shows. Why? Well, the Fed officials disappointed investors who expected some clues about upgrading the U.S. central bank’s forward guidance in September. In other words, the Fed failed to provide any new guidance as to the interest rate expectations.

And, perhaps even more importantly, the discussion among the FOMC members shows that they do not want to introduce the yield curve control, at least not now, as costs outweigh benefits:
Of those participants who discussed this option, most judged that yield caps and targets would

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What the Upcoming Wealth Transfer Could Look Like

July 14, 2020

Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst JUL 14, 2020

With gold up 20% year-to-date and silver breaking through the $19 barrier for the first time in almost a year, it’s time to consider what a gold and silver mania might look like. If Mike Maloney is right about what’s ahead, we’ll soon be part of a life-changing shift. Have you thought about how the wealth transfer might play out? Not like this you haven’t…
You grab a calculator for the third time that day, multiplying your gold and silver ounces by the price of each… the total staggers you all over again, even though you checked it just a few hours ago. Precious metals prices have been screaming higher for weeks now, jumping 5% to 10% every day, frequently higher. One day last week gold was up 20% and silver a whopping 36%, just

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Into Darkness (System hurtling Towards Breakdown)

July 1, 2020

On January 23, 2020, our close friend Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity issued an alert warning people to prepare for a coming pandemic, the likes of which we hadn’t seen in generations…
We now know Chris was right.
And unfortunately, 99% of Americans ignored Covid-19 until it was too late.
Now, Chris has issued another warning. 
A threat not to our health… but our wealth.
If you look closely, the warning signs are everywhere. 
The social upheaval… the wealth gap… the dysfunction in government… it’s all tied to a greater economic trend that according to Chris most members of the media are just flat out getting wrong… at the worst possible time.
To find out the truth about what’s really happening in the markets, the economy and how Chris is preparing today, read his full

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Daily Gold News: Monday, June 22 – Gold Closer to Medium-Term High

June 22, 2020

The gold futures contract gained 1.27% on Friday, as it broke slightly above the price level of $1,750. Last week’s Powell’s testimonies on Wednesday, Thursday and his Friday’s speech didn’t bring any new surprises for the financial markets. But gold got closer to its medium-term highs. However, it continues to trade within a consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Gold is 0.2% higher this morning, as it is trading along Friday’s daily high. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 1.94% on Friday and today it is 1.1% higher. Platinum gained 1.86% and today it is up 1.0%. Palladium lost 0.01% on Friday and today it is 0.5% higher. So precious metals’ prices are gaining today.
Last Thursday’s Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has been much better-than-expected but the

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