Friday , May 14 2021
Home / Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle



Articles by Daniel Lacalle

The US Recovery Is Weak, Especially Given the Size of the “Stimulus”

8 days ago

It seems that governments want to convince us that they have saved the world when the reality is that the misguided lockdowns were the cause of the economic debacle and lifting them is the main cause of the recovery.  Original Article: “The US Recovery Is Weak, Especially Given the Size of the “Stimulus”​​ This Audio …

Read More »

Three Reasons Why the Biden Tax Increase Makes No Sense

8 days ago

Anyone who believes the “rich” and large corporations will pay for $28 trillion in debt or the $2 trillion in new deficit has a real problem with math. Biden’s announcement of a massive tax increase on businesses and wealthier segments of the population simply makes no sense. The tax hikes will have a significant impact on economic growth, investment, …

Read More »

A Jobless Recovery Is Coming to Europe

17 days ago

The destruction of the free market, competition, and innovation may seem appealing to some now, but the likely outcome of poor employment, negative real wage growth, and stagnation should be a real cause of concern. Original Article: “A Jobless Recovery Is Coming to Europe” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated …

Read More »

The US Recovery Is Weak, Especially Given the Size of the “Stimulus”

20 days ago

The United States: Hardly A Recovery There is an overly optimistic consensus view about the speed and strength of the United States’ recovery that is contradicted by facts. It is true that the United States recovery is stronger than the European or Japanese one, but the macrodata shows that the euphoric messages about aggregate GDP growth are …

Read More »

A Jobless Recovery Is Coming to Europe

23 days ago

The International Monetary Fund has published its April outlook for the global economy. It has been hailed by most commentators due to the strong upgrade in GDP recovery. The report states that “global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, …

Read More »

Lockdowns and Easy Money Bring a Weak Recovery for Europe

April 1, 2021

If we looked at most investment bank outlook reports for 2021, one of the main consensus themes was a strong conviction on a rapid and robust eurozone recovery. They were wrong. This week, Capital Economics joined other analysts and downgraded the eurozone growth, highlighting “We now think that the eurozone economy will recover more slowly than we …

Read More »

Yield Curve Control: Bubbles and Stagnation

March 31, 2021

Central banks do not manage risk, they disguise it. You know you live in a bubble when a small bounce in sovereign bond yields generates an immediate panic reaction from central banks trying to prevent those yields from rising further. It is particularly more evident when the alleged soar in yields comes after years of …

Read More »

The Everything Bubble: How A Debt-Driven Economy Creates More Frequent Crises

March 22, 2021

The pace of global recoveries since 1975 has been slower and weaker, consistently every time, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Recoveries take longer and happen slower. At the same time, periods of crisis are less aggressive albeit more frequent than prior to 1975. Another interesting evidence of the crises and …

Read More »

How a Small Rise in Bond Yields May Create a Financial Crisis

March 18, 2021

How can a small rise in bond yields scare policymakers so much? Ned Davis Research estimates that a 2% yield in the US 10-year bond could lead the Nasdaq to fall 20%, and with it the entire stock market globally. A 2% yield can cause such disruption? How did we get to such a situation? …

Read More »

MMT Is Fake Economics

March 15, 2021

In this era of monetary fiction, one tends to read all types of undocumented and misguided views on monetary policy. However, if there is one that really is infuriating is the MMT (modern monetary theory) science fiction. One of its main principles is based on a fallacy. “A country with monetary sovereignty can issue all the …

Read More »

Subzero Rates Are Coming to the US and the UK

February 17, 2021

Negative rates are the destruction of money, an economic aberration based on the mistakes of many central banks and some of their economists, who all start from a wrong diagnosis: the idea that economic agents do not take more credit or invest more because they choose to save too much and therefore saving must be penalized to …

Read More »

Compared to Europe and China, America Is Still a Safe Bet

January 31, 2021

There’s a lot of excessive optimism about the economy during the next four years in America. However, the US still comes out on top when compared to Europe and China. Original Article: “Compared to Europe and China, America Is Still a Safe Bet” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by …

Read More »

Compared to Europe and China, America Is Still a Safe Bet

January 27, 2021

Many financial experts have rushed to make what has been regarded as “Biden trade” calls based on the projections by the Associated Press, NBC News, and other news outlets of a Joe Biden presidency. The “Biden trade” is a synonym of a recommendation to invest in assets that may benefit from a Democratic presidency judging by …

Read More »

Why Mainstream Economic Forecasts Are So Often Wrong

January 15, 2021

Thanks to politics, confirmation bias, and bad monetary economics, central banks have a lousy record when it comes to economic forecasts. Original Article: “Why Mainstream Economic Forecasts Are So Often Wrong” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.  

Read More »

This Time Is Not Different: More Debt, Less Growth

January 11, 2021

I remember that in 2009 three messages were constantly repeated: “In this crisis measures are different, because governments are investing in the recovery by increasing public spending,” “the funds from stimulus plans will strengthen the recovery “and “central banks help a stronger recovery by lowering rates and increasing liquidity.” Then, 2010 arrived and the Eurozone entered …

Read More »

Why Mainstream Economic Forecasts Are So Often Wrong

January 8, 2021

Every end of the year, by the end of the year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, almost in all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year. If we look at the track record of central banks, it …

Read More »

The ECB’s Latest Big Mistake

December 31, 2020

One of the great mistakes among economists is to receive the measures of central banks as if they were the revealed truth. It is surprising and concerning that it is considered mandatory to defend each one of the actions of central banks. That, of course, in public. In private, many colleagues shake their heads in disbelief …

Read More »

New Lockdowns and More Regulations Are Disastrous for US Jobs

December 10, 2020

United States jobless claims have picked up, since the elections and the second wave of coronavirus have slowed down the economic recovery. Uncertainty about tax increases and changes in labor laws, including an increase in the minimum wage, add to the fear of new lockdowns, as employers see the devastating effects of these lockdowns in European employment. …

Read More »

There Is No Chinese Economic Miracle

December 7, 2020

In most economies, inventories are valued at market prices, while in China they are valued by the authorities and adjusted later. This is just one of many ways China manipulates GDP data. Original Article: “There Is No Chinese Economic Miracle”. This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

Read More »

The “Great Reset” and Plans for a Global War on Savings

December 7, 2020

Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year, according to the Institute of International Finance. Developed markets’ total debt—government, corporate, and households—jumped to 432 percent of GDP in the third quarter. Emerging market debt-to-GDP hit nearly 250 percent in the third quarter, with China reaching 335 …

Read More »

There Is No Chinese Economic Miracle

December 4, 2020

Listen to the Audio Mises Wire version of this article. The year 2020 will be an extremely tough year for the European economy. Added to an unprecedented drop is a strong impact in the fourth quarter due to the new lockdowns. Morgan Stanley estimates that the eurozone’s GDP will fall by 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, a …

Read More »

While Household Income Falls, Central Bankers Are Pushing for Higher Prices

November 16, 2020

Central banks continue to be obsessed with inflation. Current monetary policy is like the behaviour of a reckless driver running at 200 miles per hour, looking at the rear-view mirror and thinking “we have not crashed yet, let’s accelerate”. Central banks believe that there is no risk in current monetary policy based on two wrong …

Read More »

American Voters: Don’t Look to Europe as a Model

October 31, 2020

The United States election campaign is focused primarily on how much the next president will spend and the measures to combat coronavirus. Both issues should point to one conclusion: unlike what candidate Biden wants to do, the next United States president should not copy the European Union. As we face a second wave of coronavirus outbreak in …

Read More »

Furloughed Jobs Disguise the Eurozone Employment Crisis

October 20, 2020

The United States jobs recovery slowed down slightly in September, but the employment recovery is still faster than in most comparable economies. The jobs report showed a healthy 661,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls last month. Much of the difference with consensus came from shifts in government payrolls, which fell 216,000 in September. However, private payrolls …

Read More »

The Recovery Is Stalling. We Need Pro-Market Reforms Now.

October 20, 2020

Politicians have ignored the threat to small businesses that are failing not because their owners used the wrong strategies, but have been destroyed by the misguided and ineffective forced shutdown. This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Millian Quinteros. Original Article: “The Recovery Is Stalling. We Need Pro-Market Reforms Now.​”.

Read More »

The Recovery Is Stalling. We Need Pro-Market Reforms Now.

October 14, 2020

The Economic Sentiment Index of the European Commission for August shows that the recovery of the European economy is slowing down. Not only has the pace of recovery slowed significantly, but the data for Spain reflected evidence of being the only economy in the euro area where the index fell compared to July. If we look …

Read More »

If the US Adopts Eurozone Policies, the Jobs Recovery Will Suffer

October 5, 2020

The best social policy is one that supports job creation and rising wages. Entitlements do not make a society more prosperous, and ultimately drive it to stagnation. This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Millian Quinteros. Original Article: “If the US Adopts Eurozone Policies, the Jobs Recovery Will Suffer​”.

Read More »

If the US Adopts Eurozone Policies, the Jobs Recovery Will Suffer

September 28, 2020

The employment recovery in the United States is as impressive as the collapse due to the lockdowns. In April I wrote a column stating that “The U.S. Labor Market Can Heal Quickly,” and the improvement has been positive. Very few would have expected the unemployment rate to be at 8.4 percent in August after soaring to almost 15 …

Read More »

The US Dollar Collapse Is Greatly Exaggerated

September 14, 2020

The US Dollar Index has lost 10 percent from its March highs and many press comments have started to speculate about the likely collapse of the US dollar as world reserve currency due to this weakness. These wild speculations need to be debunked. The US dollar year-to-date (August 2020) has strengthened relative to 96 out of …

Read More »

Bankruptcies Rise Despite Trillions in New Liquidity

September 7, 2020

Misguided lockdowns have destroyed the global economy and the impact is likely to last for years. The fallacy of the “lives or the economy” argument is evident now that we see that countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Austria, Sweden, and Holland have been able to preserve the business fabric and the economy while doing a much …

Read More »