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Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle



Articles by Daniel Lacalle

The Weak Jobs Report Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies

6 days ago

We can see that these massive trillion-dollar stimulus programs generate a virtually nonexistent long-term positive impact, just a short-term bounce that lasts less than a quarter. Original Article: “The Weak Jobs Report Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Governments Love Inflation, and They Won’t Do Anything to Stop It

8 days ago

No government looking to massively expand its size in the economy and monetize a soaring deficit is going to act against rising prices, despite claiming the opposite. One of the things that surprises citizens in Argentina or Turkey is that their populist governments always talk about the middle classes and helping the poor, yet inflation still soars, making everyone poorer. Inflation is …

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The Weak Jobs Report Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies

11 days ago

In the economy, real economic return on investment is not just an important metric. It is crucial. That is why I find it so intellectually dishonest when some economists look at the GDP and employment growth without putting it in the context of the massive increase in debt, spending, and money supply. A stimulus plan is …

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Inflation-Loving Governments Are Now Blaming Private Businesses for Inflation

24 days ago

As inflation becomes more obvious, governments will be blaming businesses for causing the inflation that policymakers have fueled. This is a step on the way to price controls. Original Article: “Inflation-Loving Governments Are Now Blaming Private Businesses for Inflation” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Inflation Is Killing the Recovery

September 27, 2021

Last week, Ned Davis Research published a note titled “Turns Out, Growth Looks like It Was Transitory—Inflation Is More Sticky.” There are many factors that show us that consumers and salaries are being eaten away by inflation, leading to an abrupt halt in the recovery. Autos and new home sales plunged, real disposable personal income has plummeted, …

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Evergrande Isn’t China’s “Lehman Moment.” It Could Be Worse than That.

September 25, 2021

The bankruptcy of the Chinese real estate company Evergrande is much more than a “Chinese Lehman.” Lehman Brothers was much more diversified than Evergrande and better capitalized. In fact, the total assets of Evergrande that are on the brink of bankruptcy outnumber the entire subprime bubble of the United States. The problem with Evergrande is that it is not …

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The Eurozone Is Going down the Same Stagnating Road as Japan

September 18, 2021

The European Central Bank announced a tapering of the repurchase program on September 9. One would imagine that this is a sensible idea given the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone to the highest level in a decade and the allegedly strong recovery of the economy. However, there is a big problem. The announcement is not …

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Central Banks Can’t Taper in this Slowdown

September 1, 2021

Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016. Retail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment or industrial production data …

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The End of the Gold Standard. Fifty Years of Monetary Insanity

August 27, 2021

The gold standard supposed a limit to the fiscal voracity of governments, and suspending it unleashed the perverse proclivity of the states toward indebtedness and to pass the current imbalances on to future generations. Original Article: “The End of the Gold Standard. Fifty Years of Monetary Insanity” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by …

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The End of the Gold Standard. Fifty Years of Monetary Insanity

August 21, 2021

This year marks the fiftieth anniversary since Nixon suspended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold. This began the era of a global fiat money, debt-fueled economy. Since then, crises are more frequent but also shorter and always “solved” by adding more debt and more money printing. e8qqhphxmaunbh7.jpg The suspension of the gold standard was …

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Cuba: The Dictatorship and the “Blockade” Lie

August 17, 2021

All the propaganda that whitewashes the Cuban dictatorship is based on two lies: the nonexistent “blockade” and the allegedly excellent “public health.” Original Article: “Cuba: The Dictatorship and the “Blockade” Lie” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Government “Stimulus” Keeps Having a Diminishing Effect

August 14, 2021

We should be extremely concerned about the short and diminishing impact of monster stimulus plans. Original Article: “Government “Stimulus” Keeps Having a Diminishing Effect” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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China: The Regime’s Managed Economy Is Stagnating

August 12, 2021

Despite high domestic economic growth and solid global recovery, the Chinese market is down on the year. At the close of this article, the Shanghai CSI 300 is down 5 percent versus the S&P 500’s +18 percent. In the past five years, it has risen 51 percent, a decent but modest figure compared to the S&P 500’s +103 …

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Government “Stimulus” Keeps Having a Diminishing Effect

August 5, 2021

The United States economy recovered at a 6.5 percent annualized rate in the second quarter of 2021, and gross domestic product (GDP) is now above the prepandemic level. This should be viewed as good news until we put it in the context of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history. With the Federal Reserve purchasing $40 billion …

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Why Europe’s Highly Regulated Power Market Is So Bad for Growth

July 29, 2021

In Europe, there is no competitive market for electrical power. And since power is an important factor of production, it also means the overall marketplace is wasteful, inefficient, and sluggish.  Original Article: “Why Europe’s Highly Regulated Power Market Is So Bad for Growth” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by …

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Cuba: The Dictatorship and the “Blockade” Lie

July 28, 2021

Cuba is a dictatorship that uses terror and propaganda to repress its people. It locks citizens up, strips them of the most basic human rights, silences them, and confronts families using extortion and threats. The regime’s constant practices of illegal detention, the personal ruin of political dissidents, and limitation of fundamental rights have nothing to do with any blockade or embargo …

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This Is a Weak Jobs Recovery

July 28, 2021

The United States’s jobs recovery is extremely poor, especially if we consider the size of the monetary and fiscal stimulus and the spectacular upgrade to GDP estimates. Original Article: “This Is a Weak Jobs Recovery” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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We Can Have Low Interest Rates Or Robust Growth. But Not Both.

July 24, 2021

Central banks should know by now that you cannot have negative interest rates with low bond yields and strong growth. One or the other. Central banks have chosen low bond yields at any cost, despite all the evidence of stagnation ahead. This creates enormous problems and perverse incentives. It is not a surprise that markets have bounced aggressively, …

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Why Europe’s Highly Regulated Power Market Is So Bad for Growth

July 12, 2021

Despite an endless chain of monetary and fiscal stimuli, the eurozone consistently disappoints in growth and job creation. One of the reasons is demographics. No monetary and public spending stimulus can offset the impact on consumption and economic growth of an aging population, as Japan can also confirm. However, there is an especially important factor that tends to …

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This Is a Weak Jobs Recovery

July 9, 2021

The United States’s jobs recovery is extremely poor, especially if we consider the size of the monetary and fiscal stimulus and the spectacular upgrade to GDP estimates. After a massive consensus increase in GDP recovery estimates to 6.5 percent in 2021, no one should be cheering a 5.9 percent unemployment rate, 58 percent employment-to-population ratio, …

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The Stimulus Boom Is Already Over. Now Comes Stagnation.

June 28, 2021

The United States retail sales and jobless claims weakness, significantly below estimates, coincides with the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in history. Something is not right when these figures come significantly below estimates in an environment of massive upgrades to gross domestic product (GDP). Why? The diminishing returns of stimulus plans are very evident. Artificially boosting GDP with large …

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The G7’s Reckless Commitment To Mounting Debt

June 14, 2021

Historically, meetings of the largest economies in the world have been essential to reach essential agreements that would incentivize prosperity and growth. This was not the case this time. The G7 meeting agreements were light on detailed economic decisions, except on the most damaging of them all. A minimum global corporate tax. Why not an agreement …

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Biden’s Budget Plan: Weaker Growth and Fewer Jobs

June 9, 2021

The first thing any economist should do when reading a budget proposal is to analyze the basic macro assumptions and the results presented by the administration. When both are poor, the budget should be criticized. This is the case of the Biden Budget Plan. Same growth, a lot more debt and less employment. According to the …

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“Supply Bottlenecks” as an Excuse for Inflation

June 8, 2021

One of the arguments most used by central banks regarding the increase in inflation is that it is because of bottlenecks and that the recovery in demand has created tensions in the supply chain. However, the evidence shows us that most commodities have risen in tandem in an environment of a wide level of spare capacity and …

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More Evidence the American Economic “Recovery” Will Disappoint

June 2, 2021

Two things should concern us. First, the weakness of the recovery in the middle of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus seen in decades, and second, the short and diminishing effect of these programs. Original Article: “More Evidence the American Economic “Recovery” Will Disappoint” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated …

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More Evidence the American Economic “Recovery” Will Disappoint

May 27, 2021

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 82.8 in May, from 88.3 in April. More importantly, the current conditions index slumped to 90.8, from 97.2 and the expectations index declined to 77.6, from 82.7. Hard data also questions the strength of the recovery. April retail sales were flat, with clothing down 5.1 percent, general merchandise …

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Investors Won’t Buy the “Transitory” Inflation Line

May 25, 2021

Governments always justify printing more money with the excuse that there is no inflation. When inflation rises, they say it is transitory. And when inflation soars, governments blame businesses and shop owners, presenting themselves as the solution with “price controls.” Original Article: “Investors Won’t Buy the “Transitory” Inflation Line​” This Audio Mises Wire is generously …

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Three Reasons Why the Biden Tax Increase Makes No Sense

May 14, 2021

Biden’s tax increase plan does not make sense from a growth, revenue, or deficit perspective, and it does virtually nothing to address the real problem: ballooning spending on programs like Social Security. Original Article: “Three Reasons Why the Biden Tax Increase Makes No Sense​” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated …

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The US Recovery Is Weak, Especially Given the Size of the “Stimulus”

May 6, 2021

It seems that governments want to convince us that they have saved the world when the reality is that the misguided lockdowns were the cause of the economic debacle and lifting them is the main cause of the recovery.  Original Article: “The US Recovery Is Weak, Especially Given the Size of the “Stimulus”​​ This Audio …

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Three Reasons Why the Biden Tax Increase Makes No Sense

May 6, 2021

Anyone who believes the “rich” and large corporations will pay for $28 trillion in debt or the $2 trillion in new deficit has a real problem with math. Biden’s announcement of a massive tax increase on businesses and wealthier segments of the population simply makes no sense. The tax hikes will have a significant impact on economic growth, investment, …

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