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Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle



Articles by Daniel Lacalle

Real Wages Plummet as Inflation Hits the US Recovery

8 days ago

Friday’s jobs report was weak, but the most alarming datapoint is that real wages are plummeting. Original Article: “Real Wages Plummet as Inflation Hits the US Recovery” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Real Wages Plummet as Inflation Hits the US Recovery

16 days ago

The headline 3.9 percent unemployment rate looks positive, but job creation fell significantly below consensus, at 199,000 in December versus a consensus estimate of 450,000. The weak jobs figure should be viewed in the context of the largest stimulus plan in recent history. With massive monetary and fiscal support and a government deficit of $2.77 …

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2022: The Year of the Hangover?

19 days ago

The global recovery has slowed down significantly since the peak of the reopening effect in June 2021. What many expected would be a multiyear cycle of above-trend growth is proving to be a more modest bounce. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg Economics, the global economy will likely grow in the next ten years at a slower …

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The Fed’s Dovish “Tapering” and the ECB

December 22, 2021

This week, the Federal Reserve gave the most dovish “hawkish” statement ever, an apparent aggressive tapering that, in reality, means maintaining very low rates and massive repurchases for longer. Inflation has skyrocketed and aggressive monetary policy is the key factor in understanding it. I already explained it in my article “The Myth of Cost-Push Inflation.” The Federal Reserve …

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No, Sen. Warren, Greed Is Not Causing Inflation

December 20, 2021

Senator Elizabeth Warren recently stated that rising prices were due to corporations increasing their profits. “This isn’t about inflation, this is about price gouging for these guys.” It is simply incorrect. No, corporations have not doubled their profits, and rising prices are not due to the evildoings of businesses. If evil corporations are to blame for rising …

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When Fiat Currency Stops Being Money

December 16, 2021

If the private sector does not accept a currency as a general means of payment and a store of value, the currency becomes worthless and ceases to be money. Ultimately, it becomes useless paper. Original Article: “When Fiat Currency Stops Being Money” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael …

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When Fiat Currency Stops Being Money

December 4, 2021

Most emerging and developed market currencies have devalued significantly relative to the United States dollar in 2021 despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy. Furthermore, emerging economies that have benefitted from rising commodity prices have also seen their currencies weaken despite strong exports. As such, inflation in developing economies is much higher than the already elevated figures posted …

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The US Misery Index Shows How Weak This Recovery Is

November 29, 2021

United States consumer confidence has plummeted to a decade-low in November. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 66.8 in November, down sharply from the October figure of 71.7 and well below consensus forecasts of 72.4. Inflation is hurting consumers and the impact on daily purchases is more severe than what the Federal Reserve …

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Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Points to Even More Price Inflation

November 22, 2021

An additional—and quick—$1 trillion spending boost in energy-intensive and material consuming industries is likely to create new problems in terms of inflation and supply shortages. Original Article: “Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Points to Even More Price Inflation” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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OPEC Can’t Make High Oil Prices Go Away

November 20, 2021

High oil prices are a symptom of economic and monetary imbalances, not just a consequence of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decisions. Throughout history, we have seen how OPEC cuts have done little to elevate prices when diversification and technology added to rising efficiency. Likewise, OPEC output increases do not necessarily mean lower prices, …

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Why China’s Property Bubble Is a Big Deal

November 13, 2021

China’s real estate problems are three: the massive size of the sector, its excessive leverage, and the amount of developer debt in the hands of average households and retail investors. Original Article: “Why China’s Property Bubble Is a Big Deal​” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Points to Even More Price Inflation

November 13, 2021

What is the worst thing a government can do when there is high inflation and supply shortages? Multiply spending on energy and material-intensive areas. This is exactly what the US infrastructure plan is doing and—even worse—what other developed nations have decided to copy. If you thought there were problems of supply and difficulties to access goods …

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Why China’s Property Bubble Is a Big Deal

November 2, 2021

No economy has been able to ignore a property bubble and even less so offset it and continue to grow, replacing the bust of the real estate sector with other parts of the economy. Heavily regulated economies from Iceland to Spain have failed to contain the negative impact of a real estate sector collapse. It will …

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Governments Love Inflation, and They Won’t Do Anything to Stop It

October 28, 2021

In spite of what they say, governments will do nothing about inflation. Even though “money printing” is the real cause of this, governments will just keep blaming red herrings like supply chain problems. Original Article: “Governments Love Inflation, and They Won’t Do Anything to Stop It” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher …

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The Weak Jobs Report Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies

October 21, 2021

We can see that these massive trillion-dollar stimulus programs generate a virtually nonexistent long-term positive impact, just a short-term bounce that lasts less than a quarter. Original Article: “The Weak Jobs Report Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Governments Love Inflation, and They Won’t Do Anything to Stop It

October 19, 2021

No government looking to massively expand its size in the economy and monetize a soaring deficit is going to act against rising prices, despite claiming the opposite. One of the things that surprises citizens in Argentina or Turkey is that their populist governments always talk about the middle classes and helping the poor, yet inflation still soars, making everyone poorer. Inflation is …

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The Weak Jobs Report Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies

October 16, 2021

In the economy, real economic return on investment is not just an important metric. It is crucial. That is why I find it so intellectually dishonest when some economists look at the GDP and employment growth without putting it in the context of the massive increase in debt, spending, and money supply. A stimulus plan is …

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Inflation-Loving Governments Are Now Blaming Private Businesses for Inflation

October 3, 2021

As inflation becomes more obvious, governments will be blaming businesses for causing the inflation that policymakers have fueled. This is a step on the way to price controls. Original Article: “Inflation-Loving Governments Are Now Blaming Private Businesses for Inflation” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Inflation Is Killing the Recovery

September 27, 2021

Last week, Ned Davis Research published a note titled “Turns Out, Growth Looks like It Was Transitory—Inflation Is More Sticky.” There are many factors that show us that consumers and salaries are being eaten away by inflation, leading to an abrupt halt in the recovery. Autos and new home sales plunged, real disposable personal income has plummeted, …

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Evergrande Isn’t China’s “Lehman Moment.” It Could Be Worse than That.

September 25, 2021

The bankruptcy of the Chinese real estate company Evergrande is much more than a “Chinese Lehman.” Lehman Brothers was much more diversified than Evergrande and better capitalized. In fact, the total assets of Evergrande that are on the brink of bankruptcy outnumber the entire subprime bubble of the United States. The problem with Evergrande is that it is not …

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The Eurozone Is Going down the Same Stagnating Road as Japan

September 18, 2021

The European Central Bank announced a tapering of the repurchase program on September 9. One would imagine that this is a sensible idea given the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone to the highest level in a decade and the allegedly strong recovery of the economy. However, there is a big problem. The announcement is not …

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Central Banks Can’t Taper in this Slowdown

September 1, 2021

Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016. Retail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment or industrial production data …

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The End of the Gold Standard. Fifty Years of Monetary Insanity

August 27, 2021

The gold standard supposed a limit to the fiscal voracity of governments, and suspending it unleashed the perverse proclivity of the states toward indebtedness and to pass the current imbalances on to future generations. Original Article: “The End of the Gold Standard. Fifty Years of Monetary Insanity” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by …

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The End of the Gold Standard. Fifty Years of Monetary Insanity

August 21, 2021

This year marks the fiftieth anniversary since Nixon suspended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold. This began the era of a global fiat money, debt-fueled economy. Since then, crises are more frequent but also shorter and always “solved” by adding more debt and more money printing. e8qqhphxmaunbh7.jpg The suspension of the gold standard was …

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Cuba: The Dictatorship and the “Blockade” Lie

August 17, 2021

All the propaganda that whitewashes the Cuban dictatorship is based on two lies: the nonexistent “blockade” and the allegedly excellent “public health.” Original Article: “Cuba: The Dictatorship and the “Blockade” Lie” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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Government “Stimulus” Keeps Having a Diminishing Effect

August 14, 2021

We should be extremely concerned about the short and diminishing impact of monster stimulus plans. Original Article: “Government “Stimulus” Keeps Having a Diminishing Effect” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

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China: The Regime’s Managed Economy Is Stagnating

August 12, 2021

Despite high domestic economic growth and solid global recovery, the Chinese market is down on the year. At the close of this article, the Shanghai CSI 300 is down 5 percent versus the S&P 500’s +18 percent. In the past five years, it has risen 51 percent, a decent but modest figure compared to the S&P 500’s +103 …

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Government “Stimulus” Keeps Having a Diminishing Effect

August 5, 2021

The United States economy recovered at a 6.5 percent annualized rate in the second quarter of 2021, and gross domestic product (GDP) is now above the prepandemic level. This should be viewed as good news until we put it in the context of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history. With the Federal Reserve purchasing $40 billion …

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Why Europe’s Highly Regulated Power Market Is So Bad for Growth

July 29, 2021

In Europe, there is no competitive market for electrical power. And since power is an important factor of production, it also means the overall marketplace is wasteful, inefficient, and sluggish.  Original Article: “Why Europe’s Highly Regulated Power Market Is So Bad for Growth” This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by …

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Cuba: The Dictatorship and the “Blockade” Lie

July 28, 2021

Cuba is a dictatorship that uses terror and propaganda to repress its people. It locks citizens up, strips them of the most basic human rights, silences them, and confronts families using extortion and threats. The regime’s constant practices of illegal detention, the personal ruin of political dissidents, and limitation of fundamental rights have nothing to do with any blockade or embargo …

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