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Articles by David Stockman
This kind of volatility especially at the shortest maturity suggests limited and temporary capacity for spare liquidity. It is the result of a titanic struggle to maintain control. The PBOC has had better success at term, but perceptions about the shortest maturity heavily color how participants act. If you think there’s a good chance you might need liquidity in a pinch, and this is what you see for overnight funding, it’s a little like volunteering for a game of Russian roulette.
https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/?p=308210&preview_id=308210&preview_nonce=b18eb10ebd&preview=trueRead More »
Therefore, it is remarkable that five years after this massacre shook the world, no one has been sentenced for any of the Maidan killings. This was the best documented case of mass killing in history, broadcast live on TV and the internet, in presence of thousands of eyewitnesses. It was filmed by hundreds of journalists from major media in the West, Ukraine, Russia, and many other countries as well as by numerous social media users. Yet, to this day, no one has been brought to justice for this major and consequential crime.
https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/Read More »
Across the US, hot and cold housing markets all thrown into one bucket: Sales of “existing homes” (single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops) in March dropped 5.4% from March last year,
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/22/lower-mortgage-rates-no-relief-for-us-home-sales/Read More »
Tesla Inc.’s autonomous-driving showcase was riddled with so many pie-in-the-sky statements and inaccuracies that Chief Executive Elon Musk looks more like a huckster car salesman than the “genius” that his fans declare him to be
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-is-just-another-car-salesman-2019-04-22Read More »
Unfortunately for the nation, the RussiaGate fiasco is only half over. There is just too much documented official turpitude on the public record for the authorities to answer for and the institutional damage runs too deep. Act One, the Mueller investigation, was a 22-month circle-jerk of prosecutorial misconduct and media malfeasance. Act Two will be the circular firing squad of former officials assassinating each other’s character to desperately avoid prosecution.
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/ominous-tendings-in-the-nervous-here-and-now/Read More »
There is a big problem with the amount of non-housing debt floating in the economy. Much of this is tied to non-wealth building areas:
http://www.mybudget360.com/millennials-will-be-crushed-under-debt-non-housing-debt-now-reaches-4-trillion-in-the-united-states/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mybudget360%2FQePx+%28My+Budget+360%29Read More »
Probably Bush’s biggest folly was the Gulf War against Iraq. Bush said that America had to restore Kuwait’s “rightful leaders to their place.” Why should Americans care which Arab dictators control which patches of sand? The United States had previously been arming and bankrolling Saddam Hussein — so he was probably surprised when the United States flipped on him. The Bush administration pushed bushels of falsehoods to spur public support for the war.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2019/04/james-bovard/george-h-w-bushs-forgotten-debacles-and-demagoguery/Read More »
Ever now and then we get a vivid reminder that America’s biggest threat are not a handful of Facebook ads bought by the KGB, nor Iran’s already brittle regime, nor Venezuela’s hyperinflating basket case of an economy, but over $100 trillion in unfunded future liabilities. Today was one such day, because that’s when the board of trustees for Social Security and Medicare reported that Medicare’s hospital insurance fund – also known as Medicare Part A – will be depleted in 2026, while Social Security program costs would exceed total income in 2020, for the first time since 1982.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-22/dont-tell-bernie-medicares-hospital-fund-will-run-out-money-seven-yearsRead More »
We have been cogitating on the gross anomaly of our time: Namely, the fact that pre-tax corporate profits of $2.2 trillion (annual rate) posted for Q4 2018 were actually a tad lower than they were 7 years ago in Q1 2012, yet the S&P 500 has gained 125% during the interim.
To hear the talking heads of Wall Street tell it, of course, there is no anomaly at all because, why, corporate profits have been “gangbusters”. For instance, so called “operating” profits are forecasted to rise by 23% between the end of 2018 and 2020, implying hitting the buy key is a no brainer.
But the above numbers are just another iteration of Wall Street’s ex-items forward hockey stick, which is absolutely useless because it way overstates true GAAP
The Social Security program’s costs will exceed its income in 2020 for the first time since 1982—two years later than officials projected last year—forcing the program to dip into its nearly $3 trillion trust fund to cover benefits. But by 2035, those reserves will be depleted and Social Security will no longer be able to pay its full scheduled benefits, according to the latest annual report by the trustees of Social Security and Medicare released Monday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-trust-fund-to-be-depleted-in-2035-trustees-say-11555946113?mod=hp_lead_pos4Read More »
January and February saw sharp downturns in U.S. new vehicle sales, though many in the industry tried to downplay the poor showing by blaming the bad weather that spread across the country. Things didn’t look much better in March, with overall first-quarter demand down by nearly 4%. Even powerhouse manufacturers like General Motors and Toyota tumbled, only four brands finishing out the first three months of the year with increased retail sales.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/automakers-fret-over-impending-sales-slowdown-at-new-york-auto-show.htmlRead More »
Nevertheless, as Bayer-Monsanto shows, that takeovers can turn sour, even if they are credit-financed. One reason could be that since the late 1980s central banks have undermined the disciplinary role of debt by pushing interest rates to ever lower levels. With interest rates near zero and not being expected to rise, managers without internal funds can rely on cheap large-scale external funds to increase the firm size even if no significant efficiency gains are achieved. Hoffmann and Schnabl (2016) have argued that the persistently benign liquidity conditions created by central banks have released the pressure on enterprises for efficiency gains and innovation. Once, Kornai (1986) dubbed similarRead More »
The neocons firmly in control of US foreign policy under Donald Trump are ready to make the next move as they wend their way toward all-out war with Iran. There will be no waivers for the importation of Iranian oil. Trump took to Twitter to make yet another one of his notorious and worthless promises.
https://kurtnimmo.blog/2019/04/22/trump-neocons-put-war-agenda-on-fast-track/#more-867Read More »
Why did Biden want him fired? The prosecutor was leading a wide-ranging corruption investigation into the natural gas firm – while Biden’s son, Hunter, sat on the board of directors. Corruption is a major problem in Ukraine, and Biden contributed to it, bringing U.S. corruption to Ukraine.
https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/ukraine-why-ou-lost-by-a-landslide/Read More »
According to the study directed by Christoph Buchal of the University of Cologne….. electric vehicles have "significantly higher CO2 emissions than diesel cars." That is due to the significant amount of energy used in the mining and processing of lithium, cobalt, and manganese, which are critical raw materials for the production of electric car batteries.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/new-study-shocks-electric-cars-considerably-worse-climate-diesel-carsRead More »
While the media touts the “jump in auto sales,” it is a far different story when compared to the increase in the population….. In fact, the current level of auto sales on a per capita basis is only back to where near the bottom of recessions with the exception of the “financial crisis.”
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/auto-sales-arent-nearly-as-strong-as-reported/Read More »
China’s bond market is hosting a battle of wills between the country’s leadership and lower-ranking officials and corporate bosses. They are fighting over perpetual bonds, debtlike securities that lack a maturity date and technically never need to be repaid. Issuance has surged since the start of 2018, partly because state-backed companies see them as a way to hit Beijing-mandated debt-reduction targets without going through a painful restructuring or diluting government control.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/perpetual-motion-chinese-state-companies-fine-tune-their-financial-engineering-11555848002Read More »
During the Q&A session, Pompeo boasted that in the CIA both the training and culture are geared toward the following: "We lied, we cheated, we stole." Interestingly, a Christian religious news broadcaster was the only media that seemed to pick up on Pompeo’s words last week, and described it as follows: "that’s not the resume of the Secretary of State… that’s the resume of Satan."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/i-was-cia-director-we-lied-we-cheated-we-stoleRead More »
Reuters spoke with dozens of drivers, regional operators, and industry officials across the U.S. to assess the performance of the U.S. trucking sector. What they discovered was an industry that slumped in late 2018, with accelerating deterioration into April. Reuters noted that the decline in freight rates and hauling is not an indication of an immient recession, but as we have explained earlier this week, it’s a tariff hangover that currently plagues the U.S. economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-18/tariff-hangover-trucking-slump-hits-orders-miles-decline-latest-fears-downturnRead More »
Maltese professor Joseph Mifsud was used to tie George Papadopoulos to Russia by the Mueller team and their mainstream media. After he was interviewed by the Mueller team he went missing. Two days ago he was finally located in Rome next to the US embassy. It’s time to ask him who he was working for.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/04/deep-state-spy-located-fake-russian-joseph-mifsud-who-set-up-trump-campaign-volunteer-papadopoulos-located-in-rome/?utm_source=TGPemail&utm_medium=email&utm_content=subscriber_id:553009928&utm_campaign=Auto%20Send%20from%20The%20Gateway%20Pundit%20on%20April%2020,%202019%20at%2003:06:08%20PMRead More »
One of the most repeated messages among European financial analysts this week is this: “we are in a global slowdown”. However, the sentence hides important nuances and very relevant differences. The European Union suffers a severe slowdown. The rest of the world only a moderate reduction in the pace of growth.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-19/eurozone-slowdown-worse-global-oneRead More »
Here’s a chart that shows you exactly why the Fed rigs the stock market using QE, low interest rates, and propaganda jawboning.
https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/?p=307087&preview_id=307087&preview_nonce=ccd5bf4364&preview=trueRead More »
Needless to say, the federal student loan program is a mess, and millions of recipients of its loans are mired in debt. So mired, in fact, that, according to two recent studies :40 percent of borrowers may default on their student loans by 2023: 250,000 borrowers default on their federal student loans each quarter: It takes 19.4 years, on average, to pay off student loans
https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/?p=307250&preview_id=307250&preview_nonce=8e81c3e88b&preview=trueRead More »
“Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody?” Carter asked. “None. And we have stayed at war.” The U.S., he noted, has only enjoyed 16 years of peace in its 242-year history, making the country “the most warlike nation in the history of the world,” Carter said. This is, he said, because of America’s tendency to force other nations to “adopt our American principles.”
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jimmy-carter-china-war-infrastructure-economy-trade-war-church-1396086Read More »
Once upon a time, the stock market reflected the state of the main street economy and the level of business profits. In the present age of Keynesian central banking, not so much.
To wit, since the first quarter of 2012, the S&P 500 has risen from 1300 to 2900 or by nearly 125%. At the same time, pre-tax corporate profits of $2.20 trillion (annualized rate) in Q1 2012 have gone nowhere at all – actually posting a tad lower at $2.18 trillion in Q4 2018; and that dismal number, in turn, was down by nearly 6% from the peak $2.32 trillion level posted in Q3 2014.
The chart below might give rise to the rash thought that something here is not on the up and up about the vaunted bull market.
And it’s not: Those allegedly booming profits