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Jay Taylor



Articles by Jay Taylor

Why the Dollar’s Debt Trap is Inflationary

4 days ago

Alasdair Macleod, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Chen Lin return as guests on the program.
Including bonds and other financial issues emanating from the U.S. Government, the individual states, the private sector and the broad money supply, dollar debt totals roughly $100 trillion, to which we can add shadow banking liabilities realistically estimated at a further $30 trillion. This gives us an idea of the scale of the threat to asset values and banking posed by higher interest rates, which are now all but certain. The prospect of contracting financial asset values is potentially far worse than in any post-war financial crisis, because the valuation base for them starts at zero and even negative interest rates in the case of Europe and Japan. Many argue that if the existing fiat monetary system

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What’s Wrong With Gold? Absolutely Nothing!

10 days ago

Without a doubt, the “real” yields (interest rates less inflation) are perhaps the most important determinant in the dollar price of gold. On your right are four charts that clearly demonstrate the correlation between “real” yields and the price of gold. Interest rates are on the vertical axis and the gold price on the horizontal axis. The Top Chart on the right, covering the period from 1982, when real yields were as high as 9%, to 2007, during which time the average real yield was +3.73%, shows that there was virtually no correlation between real yields and gold. Middle Chart: With QE as a policy response to the financial crisis, the “real” yields slipped to an average of +0.77%. There was a clear correlation as real rates went strongly negative sending gold to a high of $2,000. Bottom

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Crescat’s Macro Economic Case for Gold

11 days ago

Michael Oliver and Quinton Hennigh return while Kevin Smith and Otavio “Tavi” Costa visit for the first time on this week’s program.
At a time in Western culture when individuals are told to stop thinking and simply follow orders, Kevin and Tavi have demonstrated that if you want to avoid following the lemmings into the sea, using your God given intelligence can allow you to rise far above the norm. Starting with Kevin and his wife Carleu Smith in 1992, the legacy of a highly profitable Crescat Capital began. In 2013 Tavi, another individual thinker, joined Crescat where he has built the company’s macro-economic model. Kevin and Tavi explain the company’s investment philosophy and why their macroeconomic model demands investing in gold exploration companies.
Not surprisingly, the

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Pressure on the Fed

13 days ago

A bit of air came out of the market this week, and as inflation rates rise, there will be more pressure on the Fed to start to reduce money printing by reducing the Fed’s bond buying binge. Another pressure point on the Fed may be the enormous increase in reverse repo markets that are approaching $2 trillion. That money can’t be put to work in the real economy because interest rates are too low for banks to make loans. The market has also no doubt taken note that the $3+ trillion the Democrats want to helicopter into the economy may be in jeopardy because a couple of middle-of-the-road Democrat senators are reluctant to go along with the Marxist-leaning Democrat Party and all 50 members of that party have to vote in favor of it before the Vice President can cast her tie-breaking vote.
So

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Jobs Report Miss

20 days ago

This week the big news was the massive miss in the jobs numbers.  Nonfarm payrolls increased just 235,000 after an upwardly revised 1.05 million gain in July. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for 733,000. According to one source I read ~200,000 of the shortfall resulted from a delay in back-to-school jobs. But however you cut it, it was a shock to the markets. If anything, it has tapered taper talk as the Fed tries to convince people that it actually has some credibility left. It certainly does not with me, but there are still a lot of people out in the markets who enjoy this party enough to believe the unbelievable. 
Last week after the disastrous disengagement from Afghanistan, pundits talked about how politicians of both parties have been lying to the American

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Fed Taper Talk: Fake out or Shake out?

25 days ago

David McAlvany, Michael Oliver and Dr. Roger Moss return on this week’s episode of the radio program.
The Fed has been hinting at reducing QE. But how seriously should we take Fed tapering talk when its credibility isn’t any better than the credibility of Dr. Fauci’s mask wearing advice? The Fed assured us just before the dot com crisis, as well as just prior to the 2008 financial crisis, that the financial markets were soundly under control. Why then do we take their taper talk seriously when even the slightest rise in interest rates will predictably toss the economy over a deflationary the cliff? Is it simply a matter of cognitive dissonance that keeps us believing in Fed happy talk when The Fed has no politically palatable choice but to hyperinflate the dollar into oblivion in order to

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Preparing for Accelerating Price Inflation

August 25, 2021

Lyn Alden, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Chen Lin return as guests on this week’s radio program.
Lyn will explain why rates of inflation may be transitory but prices levels will continue to rise, and possibly dramatically so. Her outlook for oil and gas is very bullish because she doesn’t believe alternative sources of energy can come on stream nearly as rapidly as assumed by many investors. She also favors alternative forms of money like gold and silver and remains open to owning Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. She explains those key investment views, which are largely shaped by a Federal Reserve Bank that is a prisoner of a debt trap of its own doing. The only way out is massive money creation from thin air that will force the price of goods and services much higher as measured in an

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Global Liquidity Crisis

August 23, 2021

By every measure this was a “risk off” week. And I believe James Rickards not only has the answer why but also that it may not be over yet by any means. His article published August 10, is titled, “Global Liquidity Crisis Is Underway.” Rickards expects these liquidity issues will in the short run lead to a rising dollar as investors scramble to sell what they are able to sell to build cash and/or pay back debt. In fact, that is exactly what I think we are seeing this week, which is why gold shares across the board are down this week.
Rickards lays the blame for this liquidity crisis on two major factors. First, the so-called recovery is not nearly as strong as the Biden Administration thinks. The economic slowdown at the start of Q3 is very tepid compared to the first half of this year. He

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Profiting From The Coming Dollar Collapse

August 18, 2021

John Rubino, Patrick Highsmith and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
In 2004, John Rubino and James Turk wrote “The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from it.” John Maynard Keynes stated, “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose.” Rubino and Turk wrote about the upcoming dollar collapse 17 years ago but the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. Were they wrong? Or is America’s current move into fascism under President Biden evidence that an ongoing destruction of the dollar since 1971 is leading to the destruction of American

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The Fed’s Fast-Approaching Dilemma and Yours

August 4, 2021

Alasdair Macleod, Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
On July 22, Alasdair wrote: “The problem fast approaching all major central banks is that a rise in interest rates will be brought forward by their misjudgment on price inflation, a development which will directly challenge the policy of deploying QE to support financial markets and sustain confidence in the economy. And with the end of zero official interest rates, to continue support for financial assets requires an increase in quantitative easing to compensate. In other words, the money being fed to investing institutions will have to be supplemented to prevent risk assets falling in value.” Alasdair believes we are on the eve of a massive currency destruction that mirrors that of the French

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Surviving the Destruction of America

July 28, 2021

Dr. Roger Moss and Daby Carreras are first time guests and Peter Boockvar return as guests on this week’s program.
As CIO of a $3.5 billion fund, Peter closely watches macro economic conditions. Are the June 5.2% CPI & 7.3% PPI readings hinting at the start of a significant 1970s stagflation ahead of us? With the Fed painting itself into a corner so that it’s impossible to raise interest rates without triggering a financial market collapse, how will that impact our investment decisions? Peter addresses those issues.
Meantime, Daby who is running for controller of NYC is focused on issues that impact the economics of American cities. He explains why America is being destroyed from inside out and what he hopes to accomplish as NYC’s next controller. Of direct interest to those of you who

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Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Can the Fed Escape?

July 14, 2021

Alasdair Macleod, Patrick Highsmith and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
With foreigners no longer buying U.S. Treasuries, the Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place; either it keeps on inflating or the whole confidence-based valuation of financial assets will collapse, either it raises interest rates or the dollar collapses. Predictably the Fed will kick the can down the road leading to a prospect for hyperinflation. How will stock, commodity and housing prices respond? Those and many more questions were discussed with Alasdair.
Patrick updates us on Firefox Gold’s very exciting gold exploration program in Finland and Dr. Hennigh provides updated details on Lion One Metals and on what appears to be a very rare, but large scale, high-grade alkaline gold

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Fed Buying is Supporting Markets

July 12, 2021

Gold and T-Bonds, the safe havens, gained during the past week when equities were quite volatile. My IDW fell a bit again last week mostly because of commodity prices, which are taking a breather and perhaps providing some justification for the gain in T-Bonds. But there can be no doubt that the continuation of $120 billion per month in Treasury purchases by the Fed is keeping equities from a long overdue bear market. How can stocks go down when money printing is aimed at keeping that from happening? That’s one question I want to ask Alasdair Macleod on my show next Tuesday. The shakiness of stocks this week had me reducing 80% of my Amyris holdings. Yes, I fear I may be sorry. I   truly think Amyris may be a major winner like Apple and some other tech stocks of recent decades. But the

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Is America in Decline? Preparing for the Outcome

July 7, 2021

Former New South Wales Judge Michael Pembroke visits for the first time. Michael Oliver and Michael Hudson return.
From his cosmopolitan background, Judge Pembroke discusses important geopolitical changes underway with the center of power and wealth shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific regions of the world. What are the causes for America’s declining power and wealth? Aside from Asian countries, which regions of the world will fare best and which ones not as well? How should individuals prepare to survive in a much less affluent setting? One suggestion always offered is to trade rapidly declining fiat currency for tangible assets starting with real money, gold and silver, and the companies that discover and mine those monetary metals.
Michael Hudson talks about progress being made by

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The Fed is Painted into a Corner

July 5, 2021

This week was without a doubt a “risk off” week. Or was it?
One might expect Treasuries to decline (rates to rise) if the economy is so strong. As James Rickards tweeted at the end of the second quarter, “On March 31, 2021, the yield-to-maturity on the 10-Year Treasury note 1.75%. Today the yield is 1.460%. That’s a disinflationary signal from a market that almost always gets things right. (The stock market is the last to know.) The inflationists are marching off a cliff.”
I recall one time asking guest Pat Gorman (now deceased) on my radio show whether he was more worried about inflation or deflation. His answer was “Yes!” 
Pat wasn’t trying to be a wise guy; his point was that both inflation and deflation dynamics are always taking place simultaneously. It could very well be that Jim

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Monetary Climate Change and Gold

June 30, 2021

Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Dr. Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
The “Fourth Turning” written in 1997 predicted that during the mid 2000’s, major social, economic and political changes would occur in the U.S.  The 2008-09 financial crisis followed by the election of Barak Obama has indeed marked America’s 4th Fourth Turning. Fourth turnings always bring major social and political changes.  And so we now see BLM & Antifa clamor for Marxist rule and many, if not most Democrats and the intelligence community, seem to be in sympathy with those aspirations.
Lenin said that the best way to destroy the capitalist system is through currency debasement because by so doing, governments can confiscate wealth, secretly and unobserved, from an important part of its citizenry.

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Short-Term Transitory Inflation

June 28, 2021

The energy heavy Rogers Raw Materials Index was up considerably this week. Otherwise, the components of my Key Market Metrics were up only marginally. And my IDW has actually declined over the past four weeks from 189.17 to 184.24 as of Thursday, June 24. But from all I can see, the decline in my IDW is transitory rather than the CPI and PPI, which are the propaganda from the Fed and President Biden.
There is anecdotal information everywhere suggesting wage inflation may be a very significant problem for the first time since 2021. That would not be possible of course if it were not for transfer payments being sent to millions of lower income workers to stay home rather than go to work. When Mrs. Taylor and I went to a restaurant in Clarion, Pennsylvania, the manager of the restaurant told

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The Outlook for U.S. Stocks?

June 23, 2021

Dr. Peter Treadway, Michael Oliver and Corwin Coe return as guests on this week’s program.
On May 5, Peter opined that “The outlook for U.S. stocks has turned negative.” That article focused on the costs of green energy being imposed on Americans by far-left politicians. But Peter who is focused on global markets will most certainly have some views on the Asian markets, which he is very much involved with from his part time perch in Hong Kong. Specifically, I ask him about his views on the worsening of Chinese-US relations now that a more antagonistic Trump administration is no longer in charge.
Michael has not hidden the fact that he too thinks the bullish days for stocks are numbered.  He provides his latest views on all the markets of great importance to our listeners and Corwin Coe

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A Big Risk-Off Week

June 21, 2021

Given a need to travel on Friday, I’m commenting here on the basis of a four-day work week, so things could change dramatically tomorrow. But this is one of the biggest risk-off weeks in quite a while with everything down except T-Bonds. But this is nothing but a con game played by the Fed over and over again, manipulating public opinion to believe they are really in control. Gold gets $100/oz. to the downside, the dollar gains, and T-Bonds gain.
So the propaganda worked once again, but if you think the Fed has an ability to actually stop its inflationary policy, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. I would encourage you to reflect on that question after you read Michael Oliver’s article on the following pages. I’m simply sorry I didn’t arrange to have more cash in my account now

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COVID 19 and Limits to Global Growth

June 16, 2021

Robert Moriarty, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Jeff Deist return as guests on this week’s program.
The Club of Rome warns that “the earth’s interlocking resources–the global system of nature in which we all live–probably cannot support present rates of economic and population growth much beyond the year 2100, if that long, even with advanced technology.” Other elite organizations issue similar warnings. But how will population decline when China promotes population growth and supports it by massive growth in power-generated electricity? While 99% of technology may be positive for our well being, it’s also true than 1% of the new tech may actually be systemically destructive.
Robert discusses the unthinkable but scientifically-based concerns of a top independent pharmaceutical scientist about the

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The Party is over & our “Friends” Have Gone Home!

June 15, 2021

It’s been quite a party for America since World War II and especially since 1971 when President Nixon threw open the monetary liquor cabinet to Americans by detaching gold from money. That meant Americans didn’t have to work for their wealth because the Fed could print money that was accepted by the rest of the world for whatever they produced.
For a while it worked like a charm. After an initial post 1971 bout of double-digit inflation that was corrected by the Volcker Fed, the U.S. printed more and more money, faster and faster, and it was so much fun! What made this free lunch possible for several decades was the willingness of foreigners to use the dollars they earned by selling us stuff to pay for our materialistic orgy by buying U.S. Treasuries. That meant that even as the U.S. went

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Pretending the US is Solvent

June 14, 2021

Except for gold, all the key market metrics were up this week. I have a feeling—it’s only a feeling—that some of gold’s weakness may be due to price manipulation by the bullion banks to shape a bearish psychology before June 24 when Basel III goes into effect for European banks. One thing we do know and is that if gold started a dramatic rise it would call into question the legitimacy of the dollar. Most Americans don’t give any thought to the dollar’s importance in terms of inflation. But as I noted in my May 20 MIF talk, the fate of the dollar is hyperinflation. Just as in the early 1720s the French had to print unlimited livre to buy shares of the Mississippi Company to pretend France was solvent, the Fed must now print endless trillions of dollars to pretend the U.S. is solvent. 
There

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Precious Metals Begin to Rise June 24?

June 7, 2021

There are some weeks, like the one just ended, when the basic metrics shown here every week don’t make any sense. Stocks and commodities rising should be bearish for U.S. Treasuries, but this week, long-dated Treasuries rose! But then you realize that markets are rigged at their very core with a bias toward paper assets.
Speaking of paper assets, it seems that one paper market, namely that for gold and silver futures, may no longer be viable for the bullion banks if Basel III regulations hold up. This will be a topic that I discuss with Alasdair Macleod on my radio show next week. The idea is that since Basel III will no longer allow banks to count futures contracts as make-believe gold on the asset side of their balance sheets, they will have to allocate substantial amounts of capital

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Some of my favorites at the May 2021 MIF

June 3, 2021

As I mentioned previously, “transitory” is a word that seems to be in fashion now, but what is not transitory is the wealth created by gold miners.  Along with my presentation at the MIF on May 20, I introduced five exploration companies that are among some of my favorites.  You can watch their presentations by accessing the links below and that I follow in my own newsletter J Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks (https://miningstocks.com)
Firefox Gold Corp.
TSX-V: FFOX
https://youtu.be/UzJdrPqitfA

Goldsource Mines Inc.
TSX-V: GXS
https://youtu.be/x7mUMyGPm8E

Goliath Resources Limited
TSX-V: GOT
https://youtu.be/mjfmo0MM9tk

NewFound Gold Corp.
TSX-V: NFG
https://youtu.be/iKGl1o7ONRo

 
White Rock Minerals
ASX: WRM
https://youtu.be/Afl47iDdL7I

Hope you enjoy and learn from these

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Inflation? No Worries says David Rosenberg

June 2, 2021

David Rosenberg, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Eric Coffin return as guests on this week’s program.
While most investors believe a rising CPI in America is a serious economic threat, David thinks those worries are very much overblown. He says that what’s going on isn’t a fundamental shift, but rather a pendulum swinging back to the opposite extreme following the sudden deflationary demand shock caused by the pandemic. Rosenberg argues that the factors that contributed to this surge in prices are already starting to fade. Given that view, how then is David positioning his investments at a time when by almost any metric you name, U.S. stocks are as overvalued as at any time in history. 
Eric provides his views on key metals markets, and following the May 26 report of a 123.6-meter drill intercept

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Is America Facing Stagflation?

May 26, 2021

Lyn Alden and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Michael sees a layered but significant equity bear market. In the near term, US Treasuries and gold will benefit. But as deficits surge, inflation rises forcing the Fed to fund nearly all of the Treasury needs. Confidence will be lost in the Fed and Treasuries will join equities and other asset classes into a bear market. Michael sees prospects for a 1970s-style stagflation when double-digit inflation was joined by very high unemployment rates. 
Lyn just wrote a paper titled “The Ultimate Guide to Inflation” in which she describes various forms of inflation. What does she think of Michael’s stagflation view or Alasdair Macleod’s view of a parallel between the Mississippi Bubble disaster and the Fed’s need to print money

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The Fed Tries to Keep Things in Balance

May 24, 2021

This week has to be considered a “mild” risk off week with stocks and commodities down but with the safe havens, gold and T-Bonds, up. The mild response seems appropriate in relation to the Fed minutes released last week. Peter Boockvar termed them “very slightly hawkish”). In my MIF presentation on May 20, I noted a topping pattern that may be starting to take shape in the U.S. equity markets. With each credit cycle, the level of interest that represents an insurmountable headwind for stocks continues to fall to significantly lower levels. When I did the slide shown above for the MIF presentation, the 10-Yr. was at ~ 1.7%. In its Keynesian arrogance, the Fed thinks it can thread the needle to exactly just the right interest rate to keep things in balance. It cannot! That has been proven

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Preparing for the Best of Times and the Worst of Times

May 19, 2021

Kevin Duffy and Chen Lin Return. Carl Löfberg of Firefox Gold visits for the first time.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” That famous quote from Charles Dickens best describes the view of Kevin who sees both enormous social upheaval and poverty but at the same time sees “the hockey stick of human prosperity.”
According to those views, we asked Kevin how he is investing his funds’ resources. Chen, who is no stranger to bio technologies that can better the lives of humanity, shares his views on the market and Carl talks about some very

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Why Rising Inflation is not Transitory

May 12, 2021

John Williams, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Peter Boockvar told us last week that the Fed actually believes that rising inflation rates are transitory but think that by generating more inflation now that would be positive for the economy. But does it really matter what the Fed thinks and wants? John Williams believes the Fed will get higher inflation and will get it in spades. Even the Fed admits that surging money creation no longer boosts the economy but according to John it is likely to lead to hyperinflation. He remains hugely bullish on gold and silver.
Michael Oliver believes the next move higher for gold will be when the equity markets head south so we will want to know what his latest forecast is on stocks. Quinton provides updates

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All Sign Point to Inflation

May 10, 2021

Wow! It’s getting harder and harder not to take rising inflation seriously. My IDW rose 1.1% during the week to hit a new high of 187.66. And while Equities rose a bit, the real zingers were Copper (+6.29%), Silver (+6.11%), Housing (+4.90%), and the Rogers Raw Materials Index (+3.85%). This is in keeping with the rise of commodity prices since March of 2020 when Fed Chairman Powell gave up on any responsible monetary policy whatsoever.
At the same time, gold and T-Bonds, which are considered the go-to safe havens, also gained. You can make the case for gold as an inflation hedge, but money flowing to T-Bonds doesn’t make a lot of sense. But then why would we think the Fed would keep its mitts off of the bond markets when inflation is starting to appear to be a problem?
The fact is that

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