Sunday , June 20 2021
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Jay Taylor



Articles by Jay Taylor

COVID 19 and Limits to Global Growth

4 days ago

Robert Moriarty, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Jeff Deist return as guests on this week’s program.
The Club of Rome warns that “the earth’s interlocking resources–the global system of nature in which we all live–probably cannot support present rates of economic and population growth much beyond the year 2100, if that long, even with advanced technology.” Other elite organizations issue similar warnings. But how will population decline when China promotes population growth and supports it by massive growth in power-generated electricity? While 99% of technology may be positive for our well being, it’s also true than 1% of the new tech may actually be systemically destructive.
Robert discusses the unthinkable but scientifically-based concerns of a top independent pharmaceutical scientist about the

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The Party is over & our “Friends” Have Gone Home!

5 days ago

It’s been quite a party for America since World War II and especially since 1971 when President Nixon threw open the monetary liquor cabinet to Americans by detaching gold from money. That meant Americans didn’t have to work for their wealth because the Fed could print money that was accepted by the rest of the world for whatever they produced.
For a while it worked like a charm. After an initial post 1971 bout of double-digit inflation that was corrected by the Volcker Fed, the U.S. printed more and more money, faster and faster, and it was so much fun! What made this free lunch possible for several decades was the willingness of foreigners to use the dollars they earned by selling us stuff to pay for our materialistic orgy by buying U.S. Treasuries. That meant that even as the U.S. went

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Pretending the US is Solvent

6 days ago

Except for gold, all the key market metrics were up this week. I have a feeling—it’s only a feeling—that some of gold’s weakness may be due to price manipulation by the bullion banks to shape a bearish psychology before June 24 when Basel III goes into effect for European banks. One thing we do know and is that if gold started a dramatic rise it would call into question the legitimacy of the dollar. Most Americans don’t give any thought to the dollar’s importance in terms of inflation. But as I noted in my May 20 MIF talk, the fate of the dollar is hyperinflation. Just as in the early 1720s the French had to print unlimited livre to buy shares of the Mississippi Company to pretend France was solvent, the Fed must now print endless trillions of dollars to pretend the U.S. is solvent. 
There

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Precious Metals Begin to Rise June 24?

13 days ago

There are some weeks, like the one just ended, when the basic metrics shown here every week don’t make any sense. Stocks and commodities rising should be bearish for U.S. Treasuries, but this week, long-dated Treasuries rose! But then you realize that markets are rigged at their very core with a bias toward paper assets.
Speaking of paper assets, it seems that one paper market, namely that for gold and silver futures, may no longer be viable for the bullion banks if Basel III regulations hold up. This will be a topic that I discuss with Alasdair Macleod on my radio show next week. The idea is that since Basel III will no longer allow banks to count futures contracts as make-believe gold on the asset side of their balance sheets, they will have to allocate substantial amounts of capital

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Some of my favorites at the May 2021 MIF

17 days ago

As I mentioned previously, “transitory” is a word that seems to be in fashion now, but what is not transitory is the wealth created by gold miners.  Along with my presentation at the MIF on May 20, I introduced five exploration companies that are among some of my favorites.  You can watch their presentations by accessing the links below and that I follow in my own newsletter J Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks (https://miningstocks.com)
Firefox Gold Corp.
TSX-V: FFOX
https://youtu.be/UzJdrPqitfA

Goldsource Mines Inc.
TSX-V: GXS
https://youtu.be/x7mUMyGPm8E

Goliath Resources Limited
TSX-V: GOT
https://youtu.be/mjfmo0MM9tk

NewFound Gold Corp.
TSX-V: NFG
https://youtu.be/iKGl1o7ONRo

 
White Rock Minerals
ASX: WRM
https://youtu.be/Afl47iDdL7I

Hope you enjoy and learn from these

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Inflation? No Worries says David Rosenberg

18 days ago

David Rosenberg, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Eric Coffin return as guests on this week’s program.
While most investors believe a rising CPI in America is a serious economic threat, David thinks those worries are very much overblown. He says that what’s going on isn’t a fundamental shift, but rather a pendulum swinging back to the opposite extreme following the sudden deflationary demand shock caused by the pandemic. Rosenberg argues that the factors that contributed to this surge in prices are already starting to fade. Given that view, how then is David positioning his investments at a time when by almost any metric you name, U.S. stocks are as overvalued as at any time in history. 
Eric provides his views on key metals markets, and following the May 26 report of a 123.6-meter drill intercept

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Is America Facing Stagflation?

25 days ago

Lyn Alden and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Michael sees a layered but significant equity bear market. In the near term, US Treasuries and gold will benefit. But as deficits surge, inflation rises forcing the Fed to fund nearly all of the Treasury needs. Confidence will be lost in the Fed and Treasuries will join equities and other asset classes into a bear market. Michael sees prospects for a 1970s-style stagflation when double-digit inflation was joined by very high unemployment rates. 
Lyn just wrote a paper titled “The Ultimate Guide to Inflation” in which she describes various forms of inflation. What does she think of Michael’s stagflation view or Alasdair Macleod’s view of a parallel between the Mississippi Bubble disaster and the Fed’s need to print money

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The Fed Tries to Keep Things in Balance

27 days ago

This week has to be considered a “mild” risk off week with stocks and commodities down but with the safe havens, gold and T-Bonds, up. The mild response seems appropriate in relation to the Fed minutes released last week. Peter Boockvar termed them “very slightly hawkish”). In my MIF presentation on May 20, I noted a topping pattern that may be starting to take shape in the U.S. equity markets. With each credit cycle, the level of interest that represents an insurmountable headwind for stocks continues to fall to significantly lower levels. When I did the slide shown above for the MIF presentation, the 10-Yr. was at ~ 1.7%. In its Keynesian arrogance, the Fed thinks it can thread the needle to exactly just the right interest rate to keep things in balance. It cannot! That has been proven

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Preparing for the Best of Times and the Worst of Times

May 19, 2021

Kevin Duffy and Chen Lin Return. Carl Löfberg of Firefox Gold visits for the first time.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” That famous quote from Charles Dickens best describes the view of Kevin who sees both enormous social upheaval and poverty but at the same time sees “the hockey stick of human prosperity.”
According to those views, we asked Kevin how he is investing his funds’ resources. Chen, who is no stranger to bio technologies that can better the lives of humanity, shares his views on the market and Carl talks about some very

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Why Rising Inflation is not Transitory

May 12, 2021

John Williams, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Peter Boockvar told us last week that the Fed actually believes that rising inflation rates are transitory but think that by generating more inflation now that would be positive for the economy. But does it really matter what the Fed thinks and wants? John Williams believes the Fed will get higher inflation and will get it in spades. Even the Fed admits that surging money creation no longer boosts the economy but according to John it is likely to lead to hyperinflation. He remains hugely bullish on gold and silver.
Michael Oliver believes the next move higher for gold will be when the equity markets head south so we will want to know what his latest forecast is on stocks. Quinton provides updates

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All Sign Point to Inflation

May 10, 2021

Wow! It’s getting harder and harder not to take rising inflation seriously. My IDW rose 1.1% during the week to hit a new high of 187.66. And while Equities rose a bit, the real zingers were Copper (+6.29%), Silver (+6.11%), Housing (+4.90%), and the Rogers Raw Materials Index (+3.85%). This is in keeping with the rise of commodity prices since March of 2020 when Fed Chairman Powell gave up on any responsible monetary policy whatsoever.
At the same time, gold and T-Bonds, which are considered the go-to safe havens, also gained. You can make the case for gold as an inflation hedge, but money flowing to T-Bonds doesn’t make a lot of sense. But then why would we think the Fed would keep its mitts off of the bond markets when inflation is starting to appear to be a problem?
The fact is that

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Why the Future of Money is Gold & Silver

April 28, 2021

Alasdair Macleod, Michael Oliver and Chen Lin return as guests on this week’s radio program.
With bitcoin’s price still rising and expected to rise even more, there has been a growing belief in crypto currency circles that it will replace unbacked government currencies when they eventually fail. Alasdair says the assumptions behind this conclusion are naïve, exposing hardly any knowledge in what qualities are needed for sound money. Governments resist a return to gold-backed currencies but Alasdair explains why governments will have no choice but to do so as a result of powerful market forces. And we will ask him what signs to look for that will tell us a change to gold-backed money is upon us.
Michael updates us on the markets he thinks are the ones you need to watch most closely as the

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America’s Economic Decline & Rising Geopolitical Tensions

April 21, 2021

John Rubino and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
America’s economic, social and spiritual decline is well recognized apart from Marxists who are cheering it on. U.S. debt is growing exponentially & can’t be serviced without higher rates that will send us into a deflationary depression akin to the 1930s or worse, or massive money printing leading to hyperinflation. With neither option politically viable, why not distract Americans with a war? President Biden has personally assured President Volodymyr Zelensky of America’s “unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbass and Crimea.” At the same time, Russia has established a red line where the U.S. and NATO dare not tread.
John gives his

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In Government and Scholars We Trust

April 19, 2021

Everything went up this week, so if ever there was a risk off week it was the one we just passed through, although something tells me we may be just at the beginning. President Biden, the Fed, Wall St., and the Pentagon see no reason why we can’t print money forever in infinite amounts and everyone can have everything they want. Shucks! There isn’t any reason why people even have to work. They can simply collect checks from the government and be happy. Don’t worry that businesses that are trying to start moving toward production again can’t find any workers.  Someone Ielse can produce the items they need. As long as I have dollars in my pocket, who needs to work?
Since Government is now trusted as God by the woke left, we can simply depend on the miracles of the money printers. These

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Living & Investing in a Dystopian Digital Currency World

April 14, 2021

David McAlvany, Michael Oliver & Quinton Hennigh return on this week’s episode of the radio show.
The handwriting is on the wall now for EVERYONE to see. Freedom to spend your money as you wish without government permission is about to end. That’s because a mismanaged global monetary system now requires not only low interest rates but negative interest rates to hold the system together. To be able to take money away from your accounts, you will be forced into a digital only monetary system.  Aside from our loss of personal liberty and privacy, might there be ways to minimize the theft of our wealth by governments and central banks? That and other topics of interest are discussed with David.
Michael provides updates on his structure and momentum of key markets and Quinton explains what is

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Appearance of U.S. Government Solvency

April 12, 2021

Growing fear of financial fragility in the markets and rising fears of inflation are keeping the Fed suppressing the long end of the yield curve and proclaiming anti-inflation rhetoric. It reminds me very much of my early adult years, of the inflationary 1970s, when my first mortgage rate was 17.5%.
Only this time, we are infinitely worse off because we can’t take long-term rates much above 2% or the whole dollar-based system will implode. Money has to be created out of thin air, with the money supply growing infinitely. That’s necessary not only to keep the U.S. government appearing to be solvent but also to paper over growing evidence of insolvent hedge funds and to keep stock prices elevated, lest we have pension funds all over America biting the dust. 
Almost every day, Chairman Powell

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Real World Inflation

March 29, 2021

The financial markets enjoyed a great week at the expense of the monetary metals and commodities. And in his March 25, 2021, missive, Michael Oliver’s work suggests that commodities are likely to become involved in a choppy arm-wrestling consolidation at or around current levels for the next month or two although it is not unreasonable to wonder just how much impact the lack of transport through the Suez Canal will have on prices at the same time massive stimulus is being released in America. But given the torrid pace of inflation in the real world as displayed on the following chart, some sideways action would seem reasonable and welcome. Our government can talk about 2% inflation, but whose kidding who? The chart on your left gives you an idea of the massive inflation in all manner of

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Interest Rates amid Out of Control Spending

March 24, 2021

John Rubino, Corwin Coe and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
As countless thousands of illegal immigrants swarm over the U.S. southern borders from all over the world, Democrats can’t wait to give them free stuff in exchange for votes. It’s as if money grows on trees.  But it doesn’t! Each dollar created has behind it not gold but a dollar of debt. The math doesn’t work because debt is growing much faster than income. Sooner or later, the system will either implode into deflationary depression or explode into a hyperinflation.
How much more of this debt-based money can be produced before we face a hyper inflationary end? That is what was discussed with John. Corwin, who heads up Sitka Gold Corp., provides  updates on not just one but on three exciting gold

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Inflation Fears

March 22, 2021

We witnessed a slight whiff of deflation last week as fears of inflation drove interest rates higher to the point where they started to give stocks a bit of competition. The 10 Yr. Treasury rose to 1.75%, which compares to the 1.34% on the S&P 500. True, you get a 1.82%% dividend yield on the Dow but if it’s income you are looking for, why would you want to own stocks for a mere 7 basis points especially when stocks are at historically high levels and when U.S. Treasuries bring much, much less volatility? Certainly, insurance companies and pension funds must be thinking like that even if retail investors generally are not.
Ten Year U.S. Treasuries
At least before the market started melting down this past week, some people were suggesting that the Fed should allow rates to rise rapidly,

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Central Bank’s Deception of Monetary Reality

March 17, 2021

Chris Powell, Michael Oliver and Patrick Highsmith return as guests this week on the program.
If individuals created money out of thin air as central banks do, they would go to jail for counterfeiting theft. The need for this central bank’s immorality is to be able to clandestinely pick the pockets of its citizens to fund “essential” services run by the military industrial complex and “bleeding heart” socialist politicians.  To achieve that end, the price of gold must be capped within possible limits to con the masses into remaining confident in a dollar that has lost massive amounts of purchasing power.
Chris explains the mechanical operations of how this con job is carried out by America’s ruling elite. Within this con operation gold creeps silently higher over time, allowing retention

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A Sick Cycle of Money Printing

March 15, 2021

In America, money grows on trees. Actually, it doesn’t: In America, money grows from computer keystrokes! So, party on! Wall Street celebrated this week—sort of—though there are growing concerns even among Keynesians that inflationary pressures may be about to get out of hand. Oil was a big weaker this week, but base metals soared and gold and silver found their footing and rose a bit. But the big kicker in my view was a surge in interest rates, evidenced by the decline in the long bond (TLT). Also, my IDW hit yet a new high this week, rising from 181.7 last week to 183.25 as of March 12, 2021.
As Michael Lebowitz, CFA, tweeted out last week, “if the Fed prints friendly gradual inflation, it has a numbing effect. It impoverishes the middle class, 

but enriches those who are already filthy

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Investments for this Brave New World

March 10, 2021

Frank Holmes and Jeff Deist return as guests on this week’s program.
Trillions of dollars created out of thin air serve to reduce interest rates toward zero. This combined with lower capital gains taxes has resulted in the greatest financial gambling casino in history and taken wealth away from production. Now, with inflation on the rise, the days of zero interest rates appear to be numbered. And a new administration is likely to hike capital gains taxes forcing capital more toward companies that actually produce useful products and profits.  What kind of companies will benefit most from this rapidly changing environment? Gold and various commodity producers should do well as raw materials prices rise. But what about technology stocks, including crypto currencies?
We asked Frank, whose

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We Hold these Truths to Be Self Evident. Not!

March 8, 2021

The founding of America in 1776 was based on the following values spelled out in our Declaration of Independence.
“The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of

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The Return of the Bond Vigilantes?

March 1, 2021

Bloody Awful! While copper and oil continued to rise and the Rogers Raw Materials posted a strong gain this week, the Biden Treasury and friends made sure price discovery for gold and silver, which compete as money with fraudulent fiat, was denied. The paper markets once again smashed those honest money metals and it wreaked havoc on our Model Portfolio, which, prior to this week, had been outpacing the S&P 500 by a wide margin.
Let me comment quickly about my IRA trades this week, because they reflect my gut feeling about the dangers that we are facing now that my worst fears seem to be unfolding.
What are my worst fears? They are that we will have a replay of the 1970s when the Fed lost control of interest rates. A new term, “Bond Vigilantes,” was invented then to describe the market

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Rising Interest Rate Concern

February 22, 2021

Everything was down this week except commodities (Rogers Raw Materials Index) and by my Inflation/Deflation Watch). This is evidence of rising prices in the real economy rather than financial market inflation and it seems the Bond Market (TLT) is responding with higher rates. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury rose this week to another high of 1.34% since the rise began last August.
It’s pretty amazing that my IDW eked out a gain this week despite the fact that virtually all stock indexes in the Watch fell. But copper surged by 7.64%. That along with the Rogers Fund was sufficient to increase my IDW from 182.05 last week to 182.13 this week. 
Also, note that in this letter’s Model Portfolio shown above left, the only positive sector is the Base Metals Energy & Tech stocks. Alliance Bioenergy has

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Could Rising Rates Pop the Equity Bubble?

February 17, 2021

Lyn Alden and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Even though M. Oliver has been bearish on U.S. Treasuries, his analysis persistently convinced him it is not yet time to pull the plug on the U.S. T-Bond. However, his work has also persistently pointed to a rise in commodity prices and long-term dollar decline. He awaits his momentum and structural analysis to dictate Treasury plug pulling time. He suspects rising levels of inflation will trigger a rate rise explosion that leads to the Fed’s loss of control of rates which will in turn trigger stock market carnage.
Lyn explains how rising rates impact equity markets and if she can perceive of market dynamics that might cause central banks to lose control over rates. We ask M. Oliver for his latest T-Bond rate analysis &

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With Inflation & Interest Rates on the Rise Stocks May be in for Trouble!

February 16, 2021

I’m very concerned now that we are entering a period of stagflation akin to but likely much worse than that of the 1970s. Not only has my IDW hit new highs early this year but since the March 20, 2020 Covid-19 stock market crash, the first 4 of the top 5 components of the IDW were housing and commodities and 6 of the top 8 were related to real estate and commodities.
Despite the rise off the bottom of the commodity sector, the chart below left shows just how suppressed commodities are relative to their 2011 top. As inflation begins to rise, we are also seeing interest rates begin to rise (note TLT is down 8% this year meaning yields are up) and the dollar has begun to decline which adds still more inflationary pressures. Michael Oliver views the following chain of events: 1. Inflation

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“Mugs & Metals” on the silver squeeze. Got gold?

February 15, 2021

Last week I joined February’s “Mugs & Metals” panel that discussed the “silver squeeze” that is going on. In this discussion, lead by Elijah Johnson, I joined Frank Holmes, Andy Schectman, Lobo Tiggre, Patrick Vierra, Chris Marcus, Robert Kientz and Tavi Costa.
From Andy Schectman, we learned that retail bullion dealers are unable to access silver without paying huge premiums even as in some instances they have to wait many weeks to take delivery. At the current price, constrained by the massive paper markets, supply is simply not coming on to the markets. Andy opined that it would take at least $50 silver before some supply might be pried from the hands of silver hoarders. He went on to say “We’ve seen the most demand in 30 years for silver at Miles Franklin in the last two weeks.”
I

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Inflation Showing Up

February 15, 2021

Is the T-Bond starting to sniff out some inflation concerns? The 10-Year U.S. Treasury nudged higher to 1.21% this week. As this chart shows, the trend is undeniable.
My IDW hit a new high again this week at 182.05 as this “everything bubble” continues to expand. It is primarily the Commodity items in my index, which eventually show up in the CPI, rather than Stocks, that have risen the most since January 1, 2021. The Rogers Index, which measures food, clothing, energy, and base metals, is up 11.24% in the first six weeks of 2021. The Housing Index is up by 11.78%. The big gainer is Oil, which is up 22.77%. Copper has gained 6.12%. Various equities sectors like the Auto, Real Estate, and Consumers are represented as well as India and China stocks. Those have all gained in this everything

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The Upcoming Revolt of the Middle Class

February 3, 2021

Charles Hugh Smith, Michael Oliver and Chen Lin return as guests on this week’s program.
Last summer BLM & Antifa wrecked havoc in most of the large cities in the U.S. while the mainstream media paid little attention to it or to the plight of America’s middle class who have become increasingly impoverished by the transfer of wealth from manufacturing to government-funded enterprises. With their voices not heard for decades & their President censored from partisan Twitter & Facebook, the anger of a small number of Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” triggered the January 7 storming of the U.S. Capitol building. Will silencing descent lead to national unity or is that akin to pouring fuel on to the fire?
Charles explains the reasons for the evolution of two separate Americas and what impact

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