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Jay Taylor

Articles by Jay Taylor

Gold Gains as Markets Decline

4 days ago

With the S&P down 5.68% while gold and T-Bonds were up, this week was decidedly a “risk-off” week. Note the 5.79% gain in silver along with a 1.63% gain in the Rogers Raw Materials Index, all indicating underlying cost-push inflation is alive and well. Chen suggested a major commitment in China to build huge power lines may have been a catalyst to get silver finally starting to move.
One market move that started to get me thinking this may be the start of a major decline was the failure of the cryptocurrencies to join gold and Treasuries as “safe havens.” Perhaps the markets are starting to realize that cryptocurrencies are just another form of fiat in that they have no intrinsic value. This week, Bitcoin lost 14.61%, Ethereum 18.50%, and Litecoin dropped 17.7% of its value, while both

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Will 2022 be “The Great Crossover” Year?

6 days ago

About Jay TaylorJay Taylor is editor of J Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks newsletter. His interest in the role gold has played in U.S. monetary history led him to research gold and into analyzing and investing in junior gold shares. Currently he also hosts his own one-hour weekly radio show Turning Hard Times Into Good Times,” which features high profile guests who discuss leading economic issues of our day. The show also discusses investment opportunities primarily in the precious metals mining sector. He has been a guest on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg and BNN and many mining conferences.

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Viewing 2022 through the Eyes of Crescat Capital

December 29, 2021

Kevin Smith, Tavi Costa and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
This episode of Turning Hard Times Into Good Times will focus on the macroeconomic views of Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital and the views of Dr. Quinton Hennigh regarding some of your host’s favorite gold and silver exploration stocks, including sponsors to this show. As Daniel DiMartino Booth noted, you can be 100% certain that in the new year the Fed will make a policy error because whatever it does, it will wreck havoc on the markets.
The Fed cannot raise rates because if it does, something like 20% of American companies, that are essentially being kept alive by way of low interest rates, will fail. So the Fed cannot raise rates. At the same time the Fed cannot not raise rates because the

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The Monetary Path to Hell!

December 22, 2021

James Turk, Michael Oliver and Quinton Hennigh return on this week’s program.
America’s Founding Fathers defined the dollar in terms of a set amount of gold and silver because they understood fiat money would enable politicians and private citizens to counterfeit money as a means of robbing honest, hardworking citizens and thereby deprive them of their natural rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Fast forward to 2021, in a world of massive money manipulation by the Federal Reserve Bank, Americans are confined to their homes, mandated to be vaccinated, forced to wear masks, told when and with whom they can assemble, and told what they are allowed to say. Not only is our wealth being stolen through monetary inflation, which would be impossible had we kept gold and silver as

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Inflation is Most Certainly Running Hot!

December 13, 2021

Obviously, it was “risk on” this week as money flowed out of bonds into stocks and commodities. Americans are a gullible population. You see that with senseless obedience to mask and vaccine mandates. We have seen it also with a belief that the Fed is honest and in control of markets. But gullible though they are, just maybe they are starting to catch on to the fact that any talk of faster tapering or any sort of punchbowl removal that would cause stocks to crash is just that—talk. This week suggested Wall Street was no longer spooked by such talk, no matter how hot inflation runs.

And inflation is most certainly running hot! As Peter Boockvar wrote on Dec. 10, the CPI in November rose by 0.8% headline and 0.5% core m/o/m. The core rate was as expected while the headline increase was

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How Long until Inflation Breaks Germany & the World?

December 8, 2021

John Rubino, Michael Oliver and Patrick Highsmith return as guests on this week’s program.
Almost alone among the world’s serious nations, Germany has scenes like this within living memory: During the 1923 Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation, newly-destitute Germans burned their life savings to keep warm or carted wheelbarrows of cash to stores to buy bread and milk. This wipe-out of an entire generation’s wealth led directly to Hitler and WWII, arguably the two dumbest mistakes made by any country ever. Note how in the recent past, before the Deutsche Bundesbank was replaced by the European Central Bank, short-term German interest rates were always set above the inflation rate in order to keep prices under control. Those days are over. Since the Great Recession, German interest rates have

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Matthew Piepenburg: From Gold Manipulation to DC’s Latest Lies, Absolute Distortion Continues

December 2, 2021

The article below was originally published at  on November 30, and it was written by Matthew Piepenburg, but it expresses so well what is going on, that we couldn’t help publishing it here.

Below we look at the latest official fantasies from DC as well as the same ol’ big-boy gold manipulation tricks meant to keep precious metal markets anything but free or natural.
From Dumb to Dumber: DC’s Latest Inflation Solution, More Spending…
In a recent report from The Hill, we discover that the Biden advisory team is now accepting that inflation is not only a financial reality (rather than “transitory blip”), but far more importantly (to them), a political problem.
It will come as no surprise to

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Tapering Talk to Fade

November 29, 2021

Friday when I woke, I checked the price of gold as I always do. Before I was aware of the new COVID variant, the cash price of gold was up 25.25 to over $1,800 again. But from there it was downhill for the safest of all safe havens as the big bullion banks went to work in the paper markets to disguise the true price of gold. Only the T-Bond proved to be a safe haven on Friday, which of course is exactly what the bullion banks want. But as Alasdair Macleod tweeted on Friday: “A few more days with falls on Wall Street like this and you can say goodbye to tapering.” In fact, I’d add that not only can we expect a cessation of taper talk but also a return to QE, perhaps at a lightning-like pace! But to keep the con game going, it is imperative that the masses do not trade paper money in for

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Focusing on World Class Gold & Silver Discoveries Underway

November 24, 2021

Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver are returning guests on this week’s program.  
Looks like Michael Oliver “nailed it” once again in his latest call to aggressively go long gold and gold shares as soon as gold were to register a weekly close above $1,825 anytime this quarter. As a technical analyst, Michael leaves the complex causes of why markets behave as they do to fundamentalists like Alasdair. Alasdair has explained that after Basel III banks will effectively no longer be able to hold derivatives like futures contracts and options without allocating additional capital to their balance sheet, which over time should lead to more accurate price discovery.   This should be massively bullish for gold and silver because approximately 15,000 times more paper gold than physical gold is

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Approaching the End of Gold’s Decline

November 22, 2021

This was a good week for “good inflation”—in other words, stocks and bonds. But that’s not to say all is well in America’s financial markets. To the contrary, I would urge you to read Alasdair’s latest article titled “Returning to sound money.” Alasdair argues that a return to gold-backed money is inevitable. But there will likely be some extreme difficulties before Nature’s laws that apply to economics are forced on politicians.
Bob Hoye sent a reminder to me today discussing the signs of an ending financial bubble. Among those signs are falling “real” interest rates and a decline in the real price of gold. Both of those have been happening in spades, though there is some evidence we may be approaching the end of gold’s decline in real terms. And from a global perspective, it may be that

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Gold’s Rise Clears Oliver’s $1,825 Triggering the Next Bull Run

November 17, 2021

Michael Oliver has categorically stated that we need to see a weekly gold price close this quarter above $1,825 in order for the next gold bull market to begin. That was achieved on Nov. 12, 2021. The chart above left shows the monthly average price of gold (red line) since 1995. But that chart is very deceptive. The chart above on your right is a more accurate picture of the current price of gold because it measures gold against the amount of money created out of thin air by the Fed. As you can see, the real price of gold based on the money supply is at a level on a par with the 1970s when gold traded less than $40/oz and in the early 2000’s when gold traded at around $250 per ounce.
On the basis of inflation alone, which the Fed is now losing control of, gold should surge dramatically

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What are the Signs of Fiat Currency Destruction?

November 17, 2021

Alasdair Macleod and Roger Moss return as guest on this week’s program.
Central banks now face a dilemma. Either they allow interest rates to rise to sufficient levels to tackle price inflation and lend support to their currencies, or they take one last gamble on yet more stimulus in the hope that recessions can be avoided.  Politics and neo-Keynesian economics strongly favor monetary inflation and continued interest rate suppression. But following that course leads to the destruction of currencies. Alasdair helps us to identify the milestones as we pass them toward the ultimate destruction of fiat money and massive price inflation. He also explains why, in the end, cryptocurrencies will not replace state-issued currencies, but rather are likely to become just another imploding

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Markets Taking Inflation Seriously

November 15, 2021

Now as it gets very difficult to buy inflation transitory view, there is direct evidence that the market is taking inflation much more seriously. Stocks were down but so was long-dated U.S. Treasuries. Normally when stocks decline, money moves into the U.S. debt market, but not this week so far, as evidenced by a decline of 0.84% in TLT. But as you can see from the table above, commodities, silver, and gold all advanced.Signs of a mounting inflation problem are everywhere. My own IDW surged to a new high at 192.01. My IDW includes financial inflation, labeled “good inflation” by those getting rich on Wall Street, as well commodity inflation otherwise known as “bad inflation” by the boys and girls on Wall Street who hate to have anything like gold or high interest rates get in the way of

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It’s Time For Gold Miners & Other Value Stocks

November 10, 2021

Lyn Alden, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Gold and Silver miners are the only non-financial sector in the S&P 500 that has been generating real positive free cash flows. Yet the value orientated gold shares are not performing anything like growth stock sectors, including IT. Lyn believes the tables may now be turning in favor of value stocks over growth stocks, in which case gold and silver miners should be nearing the time for their next major breakout. Lyn explains the drivers for value stocks as well as those for growth stocks. It will also be interesting to get her latest views on Bitcoin and crypto currency in general, and how she views those “growth” stocks relative to precious metals and energy stocks in general.
The major gold and

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Silver is Indicator of Inflation

October 24, 2021

The 10.73% rise in the price of silver sticks out, relative to what is more and more obviously taking place—namely, that inflation is on the rise, big time! Note my IDW below hit another all-time high rising to 191.64 by the end of this week. The point is that everything is rising because the supply of dollars is rising and the trajectory of its future rise is exponential.  An uptick in rates this week in response to rising inflation, not to the Fed’s talk of tapering, is evidenced by the decline in the T-Bond (TLT). Gold and silver have been laggards for one very good reason. Establishment propaganda requires bullion banks to manipulate those prices downward for as long as possible in order to keep people confident in the existing dollar-based system.

But what happens to the Fed’s

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The Monetization of Gold

October 20, 2021

For those who deny that gold is the real money, we dare you to read the following article published by Bloomberg on October 20, 2021: “Venezuelans Break Off Flakes of Gold to Pay for Meals, Haircuts” by Alex Vasquez and Ezra Fieser.

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How America’s Emerging Revolution is Similar to Cuba’s

October 20, 2021

Richard Maybury and Dr. Roger Moss return this week on the radio program.
When President Eisenhower was leaving the Presidency, he warned Americans of the emerging “military industrial complex” (MIC) that would destroy our democratic form of government. Sadly, it seems the President was right as a massive bureaucracy now makes rules that have nothing to do with the will of the electorate. A move away from power by the people to power of the government over the electorate to dictate every area of life has provoked growing anger from conservatives.  Conservatives crave retention of the Constitution that guarantees the rights of Americans to be free of government tyranny. Much of the current lack of agreement is related to social issues, with economic issues taking a back seat.

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Credit Creation Has Run Off a Cliff

October 18, 2021

The markets through the first four days of this week have been a total risk on as you can see from our Key Market Metrics shown below. But as this was being written, the mainstream fiat currency fraudsters who run our world are smashing gold down in the futures markets once more while equities are once again roaring higher. So we shall see how this work ends up.
What I can tell you is that through the first 4 days of this week, my IDW has hit a brand new all time high at 189.86. That’s up from 187.91 four days earlier. Clearly the FED is juicing the money supply which is all they can do to prolong the life of this economy for another few days. But clearly the U.S. economy requires a constant respirator to retain life and breath.

Richard Duncan pointed out today that the economy is in big

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Playing Three Card Monte With President Biden

October 13, 2021

John Rubino, Michael Oliver and Dr. Quinton Hennigh return as guest on this week’s program.
David Stockman had a last-minute conflict with the timing of his interview with us, so John Rubino will be replacing him on today’s program, but we asked for John’s comments on David Stockman’s article. Don’t believe your eyes!  The U.S. border is closed. America’s exit from Afghanistan has made America safer. The $3.5 trillion stimulus program will cost nothing. The Federal Reserve can simply create dollars from computer keystrokes! David recently wrote an article titled “Washington Idiots at Work.”  He suggested low IQs of elected officials in Washington are to blame for America’s obviously economic decline. There is reason to believe that policies put into effect like those at the border, or the

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More Inflation Showing Up

October 11, 2021

More hints of inflation are noticeable in our Key Market metrics with commodities up 2.55% and the T-Bond down 2.39%, meaning yields are up by a similar amount. Peter Boockvar reported that, “According to the Manheim Used Vehicle Index, prices went up 5.3% m/o/m in September and are up 27.1% y/o/y. The index is at a fresh record high. Supplies of motor vehicles are not keeping up with demand due to supply chain problems. Clearly, inflation is taking a bite out of the living standards of average Americans, and housing is a major issue. According to an Atlanta Fed report this week, median income households need to apply 32% of their income now to meet housing expenses. According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, anything above 30% is referred to as ‘cost burdened.’ Adding

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Can Virtual Money be backed by Gold?

October 6, 2021

Frank Holmes, Michael Hudson and Chen Lin return as guests on this weeks program.
Last time we talked with Frank he suggested that China is leading the world toward a crypto currency that would be backed by gold. But does a gold-backed crypto currency make sense if the Chinese virtual currency is engineered to remove all freedoms and liberties from every human being by governing where you go, what you buy, and what you are allowed to believe?
By contrast, gold has served as the most fair, egalitarian and pro free- market money ever used by humankind. While gold systems have in the past helped to slow down government theft by way of inflation, is there any reason to think the Chinese Communist Party would allow a gold-backed monetary system to lead to a free-market capitalist system? What

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Fed Policy is Unsurprisingly Insane

October 4, 2021

Even the Federal Reserve is now catching on to the idea that rising levels of inflation is not transitory. But the Fed still doesn’t understand that it is the primary cause of rising price levels. Print massive amounts of money to pay for trillions of vote-buying free stuff that politicians hand out, including money paid to people to not work, which increases demand and reduces supply and you wonder why we have inflation? Where did all these Ph.D. economists at the Fed get their degrees? Was it from a Sears catalog? But why should we be surprised? Financial insanity fits into everything else we are being lied to about, including the need to wear masks and the need to get vaccinated even when it is now proven that people who have had COVID are far more protected than people who never had

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The Money Tree, Open Borders & Other AOC Fantasies

September 29, 2021

John Rubino, John Watson & Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
As the Biden administration invites the world’s poor to come to America to receive free college, free medical care, free housing, etc., and vote Democrat, how will all those services be paid for? No problem, say Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer & AOC. A money tree at the Federal Reserve is the gift that just keeps on giving. Why worry?  Money created by the Fed’s keystroke costs nothing! Moreover, the Fed’s money tree has resulted in more stock market prosperity than ever, thus proving the Fed’s omnipotence. Yet history reveals that this Keynesian monetary theory is a big lie. John Law tried it in 1719-1720, when his French national bank created so much debt-manufactured money that the financial system completely

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Can The Fed Taper Enough?

September 27, 2021

Early in this past week, equity markets were troubled by fears that China’s Evergrande insolvency would lead to a global financial pandemic. As well, Wall Street continues to believe against all evidence that inflation is transitory and thus that the Fed is on its way to tapering. I tend to believe China is in a better position to deal with its debt than the U.S. is because China’s debt is owed to itself, unlike the U.S., which owes trillions to foreigners—though I’m not dismissing a possible global contagion stemming from Evergrande.
What I don’t believe is that the Fed will be able to taper much if at all without triggering a massive decline in asset prices. But as my friend Jeff Deist liked to say when he worked as Ron Paul’s Chief of Staff, “Perception is reality” in politics, and the

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Why the Dollar’s Debt Trap is Inflationary

September 22, 2021

Alasdair Macleod, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Chen Lin return as guests on the program.
Including bonds and other financial issues emanating from the U.S. Government, the individual states, the private sector and the broad money supply, dollar debt totals roughly $100 trillion, to which we can add shadow banking liabilities realistically estimated at a further $30 trillion. This gives us an idea of the scale of the threat to asset values and banking posed by higher interest rates, which are now all but certain. The prospect of contracting financial asset values is potentially far worse than in any post-war financial crisis, because the valuation base for them starts at zero and even negative interest rates in the case of Europe and Japan. Many argue that if the existing fiat monetary system

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What’s Wrong With Gold? Absolutely Nothing!

September 16, 2021

Without a doubt, the “real” yields (interest rates less inflation) are perhaps the most important determinant in the dollar price of gold. On your right are four charts that clearly demonstrate the correlation between “real” yields and the price of gold. Interest rates are on the vertical axis and the gold price on the horizontal axis. The Top Chart on the right, covering the period from 1982, when real yields were as high as 9%, to 2007, during which time the average real yield was +3.73%, shows that there was virtually no correlation between real yields and gold. Middle Chart: With QE as a policy response to the financial crisis, the “real” yields slipped to an average of +0.77%. There was a clear correlation as real rates went strongly negative sending gold to a high of $2,000. Bottom

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Crescat’s Macro Economic Case for Gold

September 15, 2021

Michael Oliver and Quinton Hennigh return while Kevin Smith and Otavio “Tavi” Costa visit for the first time on this week’s program.
At a time in Western culture when individuals are told to stop thinking and simply follow orders, Kevin and Tavi have demonstrated that if you want to avoid following the lemmings into the sea, using your God given intelligence can allow you to rise far above the norm. Starting with Kevin and his wife Carleu Smith in 1992, the legacy of a highly profitable Crescat Capital began. In 2013 Tavi, another individual thinker, joined Crescat where he has built the company’s macro-economic model. Kevin and Tavi explain the company’s investment philosophy and why their macroeconomic model demands investing in gold exploration companies.
Not surprisingly, the

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Pressure on the Fed

September 13, 2021

A bit of air came out of the market this week, and as inflation rates rise, there will be more pressure on the Fed to start to reduce money printing by reducing the Fed’s bond buying binge. Another pressure point on the Fed may be the enormous increase in reverse repo markets that are approaching $2 trillion. That money can’t be put to work in the real economy because interest rates are too low for banks to make loans. The market has also no doubt taken note that the $3+ trillion the Democrats want to helicopter into the economy may be in jeopardy because a couple of middle-of-the-road Democrat senators are reluctant to go along with the Marxist-leaning Democrat Party and all 50 members of that party have to vote in favor of it before the Vice President can cast her tie-breaking vote.

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Jobs Report Miss

September 6, 2021

This week the big news was the massive miss in the jobs numbers.  Nonfarm payrolls increased just 235,000 after an upwardly revised 1.05 million gain in July. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for 733,000. According to one source I read ~200,000 of the shortfall resulted from a delay in back-to-school jobs. But however you cut it, it was a shock to the markets. If anything, it has tapered taper talk as the Fed tries to convince people that it actually has some credibility left. It certainly does not with me, but there are still a lot of people out in the markets who enjoy this party enough to believe the unbelievable. 
Last week after the disastrous disengagement from Afghanistan, pundits talked about how politicians of both parties have been lying to the American

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Fed Taper Talk: Fake out or Shake out?

September 1, 2021

David McAlvany, Michael Oliver and Dr. Roger Moss return on this week’s episode of the radio program.
The Fed has been hinting at reducing QE. But how seriously should we take Fed tapering talk when its credibility isn’t any better than the credibility of Dr. Fauci’s mask wearing advice? The Fed assured us just before the dot com crisis, as well as just prior to the 2008 financial crisis, that the financial markets were soundly under control. Why then do we take their taper talk seriously when even the slightest rise in interest rates will predictably toss the economy over a deflationary the cliff? Is it simply a matter of cognitive dissonance that keeps us believing in Fed happy talk when The Fed has no politically palatable choice but to hyperinflate the dollar into oblivion in order to

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