Saturday , July 31 2021
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Jay Taylor



Articles by Jay Taylor

Surviving the Destruction of America

3 days ago

Dr. Roger Moss and Daby Carreras are first time guests and Peter Boockvar return as guests on this week’s program.
As CIO of a $3.5 billion fund, Peter closely watches macro economic conditions. Are the June 5.2% CPI & 7.3% PPI readings hinting at the start of a significant 1970s stagflation ahead of us? With the Fed painting itself into a corner so that it’s impossible to raise interest rates without triggering a financial market collapse, how will that impact our investment decisions? Peter addresses those issues.
Meantime, Daby who is running for controller of NYC is focused on issues that impact the economics of American cities. He explains why America is being destroyed from inside out and what he hopes to accomplish as NYC’s next controller. Of direct interest to those of you who

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Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Can the Fed Escape?

17 days ago

Alasdair Macleod, Patrick Highsmith and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
With foreigners no longer buying U.S. Treasuries, the Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place; either it keeps on inflating or the whole confidence-based valuation of financial assets will collapse, either it raises interest rates or the dollar collapses. Predictably the Fed will kick the can down the road leading to a prospect for hyperinflation. How will stock, commodity and housing prices respond? Those and many more questions were discussed with Alasdair.
Patrick updates us on Firefox Gold’s very exciting gold exploration program in Finland and Dr. Hennigh provides updated details on Lion One Metals and on what appears to be a very rare, but large scale, high-grade alkaline gold

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Fed Buying is Supporting Markets

19 days ago

Gold and T-Bonds, the safe havens, gained during the past week when equities were quite volatile. My IDW fell a bit again last week mostly because of commodity prices, which are taking a breather and perhaps providing some justification for the gain in T-Bonds. But there can be no doubt that the continuation of $120 billion per month in Treasury purchases by the Fed is keeping equities from a long overdue bear market. How can stocks go down when money printing is aimed at keeping that from happening? That’s one question I want to ask Alasdair Macleod on my show next Tuesday. The shakiness of stocks this week had me reducing 80% of my Amyris holdings. Yes, I fear I may be sorry. I   truly think Amyris may be a major winner like Apple and some other tech stocks of recent decades. But the

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Is America in Decline? Preparing for the Outcome

24 days ago

Former New South Wales Judge Michael Pembroke visits for the first time. Michael Oliver and Michael Hudson return.
From his cosmopolitan background, Judge Pembroke discusses important geopolitical changes underway with the center of power and wealth shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific regions of the world. What are the causes for America’s declining power and wealth? Aside from Asian countries, which regions of the world will fare best and which ones not as well? How should individuals prepare to survive in a much less affluent setting? One suggestion always offered is to trade rapidly declining fiat currency for tangible assets starting with real money, gold and silver, and the companies that discover and mine those monetary metals.
Michael Hudson talks about progress being made by

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The Fed is Painted into a Corner

26 days ago

This week was without a doubt a “risk off” week. Or was it?
One might expect Treasuries to decline (rates to rise) if the economy is so strong. As James Rickards tweeted at the end of the second quarter, “On March 31, 2021, the yield-to-maturity on the 10-Year Treasury note 1.75%. Today the yield is 1.460%. That’s a disinflationary signal from a market that almost always gets things right. (The stock market is the last to know.) The inflationists are marching off a cliff.”
I recall one time asking guest Pat Gorman (now deceased) on my radio show whether he was more worried about inflation or deflation. His answer was “Yes!” 
Pat wasn’t trying to be a wise guy; his point was that both inflation and deflation dynamics are always taking place simultaneously. It could very well be that Jim

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Monetary Climate Change and Gold

June 30, 2021

Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Dr. Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
The “Fourth Turning” written in 1997 predicted that during the mid 2000’s, major social, economic and political changes would occur in the U.S.  The 2008-09 financial crisis followed by the election of Barak Obama has indeed marked America’s 4th Fourth Turning. Fourth turnings always bring major social and political changes.  And so we now see BLM & Antifa clamor for Marxist rule and many, if not most Democrats and the intelligence community, seem to be in sympathy with those aspirations.
Lenin said that the best way to destroy the capitalist system is through currency debasement because by so doing, governments can confiscate wealth, secretly and unobserved, from an important part of its citizenry.

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Short-Term Transitory Inflation

June 28, 2021

The energy heavy Rogers Raw Materials Index was up considerably this week. Otherwise, the components of my Key Market Metrics were up only marginally. And my IDW has actually declined over the past four weeks from 189.17 to 184.24 as of Thursday, June 24. But from all I can see, the decline in my IDW is transitory rather than the CPI and PPI, which are the propaganda from the Fed and President Biden.
There is anecdotal information everywhere suggesting wage inflation may be a very significant problem for the first time since 2021. That would not be possible of course if it were not for transfer payments being sent to millions of lower income workers to stay home rather than go to work. When Mrs. Taylor and I went to a restaurant in Clarion, Pennsylvania, the manager of the restaurant told

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The Outlook for U.S. Stocks?

June 23, 2021

Dr. Peter Treadway, Michael Oliver and Corwin Coe return as guests on this week’s program.
On May 5, Peter opined that “The outlook for U.S. stocks has turned negative.” That article focused on the costs of green energy being imposed on Americans by far-left politicians. But Peter who is focused on global markets will most certainly have some views on the Asian markets, which he is very much involved with from his part time perch in Hong Kong. Specifically, I ask him about his views on the worsening of Chinese-US relations now that a more antagonistic Trump administration is no longer in charge.
Michael has not hidden the fact that he too thinks the bullish days for stocks are numbered.  He provides his latest views on all the markets of great importance to our listeners and Corwin Coe

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A Big Risk-Off Week

June 21, 2021

Given a need to travel on Friday, I’m commenting here on the basis of a four-day work week, so things could change dramatically tomorrow. But this is one of the biggest risk-off weeks in quite a while with everything down except T-Bonds. But this is nothing but a con game played by the Fed over and over again, manipulating public opinion to believe they are really in control. Gold gets $100/oz. to the downside, the dollar gains, and T-Bonds gain.
So the propaganda worked once again, but if you think the Fed has an ability to actually stop its inflationary policy, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. I would encourage you to reflect on that question after you read Michael Oliver’s article on the following pages. I’m simply sorry I didn’t arrange to have more cash in my account now

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COVID 19 and Limits to Global Growth

June 16, 2021

Robert Moriarty, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Jeff Deist return as guests on this week’s program.
The Club of Rome warns that “the earth’s interlocking resources–the global system of nature in which we all live–probably cannot support present rates of economic and population growth much beyond the year 2100, if that long, even with advanced technology.” Other elite organizations issue similar warnings. But how will population decline when China promotes population growth and supports it by massive growth in power-generated electricity? While 99% of technology may be positive for our well being, it’s also true than 1% of the new tech may actually be systemically destructive.
Robert discusses the unthinkable but scientifically-based concerns of a top independent pharmaceutical scientist about the

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The Party is over & our “Friends” Have Gone Home!

June 15, 2021

It’s been quite a party for America since World War II and especially since 1971 when President Nixon threw open the monetary liquor cabinet to Americans by detaching gold from money. That meant Americans didn’t have to work for their wealth because the Fed could print money that was accepted by the rest of the world for whatever they produced.
For a while it worked like a charm. After an initial post 1971 bout of double-digit inflation that was corrected by the Volcker Fed, the U.S. printed more and more money, faster and faster, and it was so much fun! What made this free lunch possible for several decades was the willingness of foreigners to use the dollars they earned by selling us stuff to pay for our materialistic orgy by buying U.S. Treasuries. That meant that even as the U.S. went

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Pretending the US is Solvent

June 14, 2021

Except for gold, all the key market metrics were up this week. I have a feeling—it’s only a feeling—that some of gold’s weakness may be due to price manipulation by the bullion banks to shape a bearish psychology before June 24 when Basel III goes into effect for European banks. One thing we do know and is that if gold started a dramatic rise it would call into question the legitimacy of the dollar. Most Americans don’t give any thought to the dollar’s importance in terms of inflation. But as I noted in my May 20 MIF talk, the fate of the dollar is hyperinflation. Just as in the early 1720s the French had to print unlimited livre to buy shares of the Mississippi Company to pretend France was solvent, the Fed must now print endless trillions of dollars to pretend the U.S. is solvent. 
There

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Precious Metals Begin to Rise June 24?

June 7, 2021

There are some weeks, like the one just ended, when the basic metrics shown here every week don’t make any sense. Stocks and commodities rising should be bearish for U.S. Treasuries, but this week, long-dated Treasuries rose! But then you realize that markets are rigged at their very core with a bias toward paper assets.
Speaking of paper assets, it seems that one paper market, namely that for gold and silver futures, may no longer be viable for the bullion banks if Basel III regulations hold up. This will be a topic that I discuss with Alasdair Macleod on my radio show next week. The idea is that since Basel III will no longer allow banks to count futures contracts as make-believe gold on the asset side of their balance sheets, they will have to allocate substantial amounts of capital

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Some of my favorites at the May 2021 MIF

June 3, 2021

As I mentioned previously, “transitory” is a word that seems to be in fashion now, but what is not transitory is the wealth created by gold miners.  Along with my presentation at the MIF on May 20, I introduced five exploration companies that are among some of my favorites.  You can watch their presentations by accessing the links below and that I follow in my own newsletter J Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks (https://miningstocks.com)
Firefox Gold Corp.
TSX-V: FFOX
https://youtu.be/UzJdrPqitfA

Goldsource Mines Inc.
TSX-V: GXS
https://youtu.be/x7mUMyGPm8E

Goliath Resources Limited
TSX-V: GOT
https://youtu.be/mjfmo0MM9tk

NewFound Gold Corp.
TSX-V: NFG
https://youtu.be/iKGl1o7ONRo

 
White Rock Minerals
ASX: WRM
https://youtu.be/Afl47iDdL7I

Hope you enjoy and learn from these

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Inflation? No Worries says David Rosenberg

June 2, 2021

David Rosenberg, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Eric Coffin return as guests on this week’s program.
While most investors believe a rising CPI in America is a serious economic threat, David thinks those worries are very much overblown. He says that what’s going on isn’t a fundamental shift, but rather a pendulum swinging back to the opposite extreme following the sudden deflationary demand shock caused by the pandemic. Rosenberg argues that the factors that contributed to this surge in prices are already starting to fade. Given that view, how then is David positioning his investments at a time when by almost any metric you name, U.S. stocks are as overvalued as at any time in history. 
Eric provides his views on key metals markets, and following the May 26 report of a 123.6-meter drill intercept

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Is America Facing Stagflation?

May 26, 2021

Lyn Alden and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Michael sees a layered but significant equity bear market. In the near term, US Treasuries and gold will benefit. But as deficits surge, inflation rises forcing the Fed to fund nearly all of the Treasury needs. Confidence will be lost in the Fed and Treasuries will join equities and other asset classes into a bear market. Michael sees prospects for a 1970s-style stagflation when double-digit inflation was joined by very high unemployment rates. 
Lyn just wrote a paper titled “The Ultimate Guide to Inflation” in which she describes various forms of inflation. What does she think of Michael’s stagflation view or Alasdair Macleod’s view of a parallel between the Mississippi Bubble disaster and the Fed’s need to print money

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The Fed Tries to Keep Things in Balance

May 24, 2021

This week has to be considered a “mild” risk off week with stocks and commodities down but with the safe havens, gold and T-Bonds, up. The mild response seems appropriate in relation to the Fed minutes released last week. Peter Boockvar termed them “very slightly hawkish”). In my MIF presentation on May 20, I noted a topping pattern that may be starting to take shape in the U.S. equity markets. With each credit cycle, the level of interest that represents an insurmountable headwind for stocks continues to fall to significantly lower levels. When I did the slide shown above for the MIF presentation, the 10-Yr. was at ~ 1.7%. In its Keynesian arrogance, the Fed thinks it can thread the needle to exactly just the right interest rate to keep things in balance. It cannot! That has been proven

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Preparing for the Best of Times and the Worst of Times

May 19, 2021

Kevin Duffy and Chen Lin Return. Carl Löfberg of Firefox Gold visits for the first time.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” That famous quote from Charles Dickens best describes the view of Kevin who sees both enormous social upheaval and poverty but at the same time sees “the hockey stick of human prosperity.”
According to those views, we asked Kevin how he is investing his funds’ resources. Chen, who is no stranger to bio technologies that can better the lives of humanity, shares his views on the market and Carl talks about some very

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Why Rising Inflation is not Transitory

May 12, 2021

John Williams, Dr. Quinton Hennigh and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.
Peter Boockvar told us last week that the Fed actually believes that rising inflation rates are transitory but think that by generating more inflation now that would be positive for the economy. But does it really matter what the Fed thinks and wants? John Williams believes the Fed will get higher inflation and will get it in spades. Even the Fed admits that surging money creation no longer boosts the economy but according to John it is likely to lead to hyperinflation. He remains hugely bullish on gold and silver.
Michael Oliver believes the next move higher for gold will be when the equity markets head south so we will want to know what his latest forecast is on stocks. Quinton provides updates

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All Sign Point to Inflation

May 10, 2021

Wow! It’s getting harder and harder not to take rising inflation seriously. My IDW rose 1.1% during the week to hit a new high of 187.66. And while Equities rose a bit, the real zingers were Copper (+6.29%), Silver (+6.11%), Housing (+4.90%), and the Rogers Raw Materials Index (+3.85%). This is in keeping with the rise of commodity prices since March of 2020 when Fed Chairman Powell gave up on any responsible monetary policy whatsoever.
At the same time, gold and T-Bonds, which are considered the go-to safe havens, also gained. You can make the case for gold as an inflation hedge, but money flowing to T-Bonds doesn’t make a lot of sense. But then why would we think the Fed would keep its mitts off of the bond markets when inflation is starting to appear to be a problem?
The fact is that

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Why the Future of Money is Gold & Silver

April 28, 2021

Alasdair Macleod, Michael Oliver and Chen Lin return as guests on this week’s radio program.
With bitcoin’s price still rising and expected to rise even more, there has been a growing belief in crypto currency circles that it will replace unbacked government currencies when they eventually fail. Alasdair says the assumptions behind this conclusion are naïve, exposing hardly any knowledge in what qualities are needed for sound money. Governments resist a return to gold-backed currencies but Alasdair explains why governments will have no choice but to do so as a result of powerful market forces. And we will ask him what signs to look for that will tell us a change to gold-backed money is upon us.
Michael updates us on the markets he thinks are the ones you need to watch most closely as the

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America’s Economic Decline & Rising Geopolitical Tensions

April 21, 2021

John Rubino and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
America’s economic, social and spiritual decline is well recognized apart from Marxists who are cheering it on. U.S. debt is growing exponentially & can’t be serviced without higher rates that will send us into a deflationary depression akin to the 1930s or worse, or massive money printing leading to hyperinflation. With neither option politically viable, why not distract Americans with a war? President Biden has personally assured President Volodymyr Zelensky of America’s “unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbass and Crimea.” At the same time, Russia has established a red line where the U.S. and NATO dare not tread.
John gives his

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In Government and Scholars We Trust

April 19, 2021

Everything went up this week, so if ever there was a risk off week it was the one we just passed through, although something tells me we may be just at the beginning. President Biden, the Fed, Wall St., and the Pentagon see no reason why we can’t print money forever in infinite amounts and everyone can have everything they want. Shucks! There isn’t any reason why people even have to work. They can simply collect checks from the government and be happy. Don’t worry that businesses that are trying to start moving toward production again can’t find any workers.  Someone Ielse can produce the items they need. As long as I have dollars in my pocket, who needs to work?
Since Government is now trusted as God by the woke left, we can simply depend on the miracles of the money printers. These

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Living & Investing in a Dystopian Digital Currency World

April 14, 2021

David McAlvany, Michael Oliver & Quinton Hennigh return on this week’s episode of the radio show.
The handwriting is on the wall now for EVERYONE to see. Freedom to spend your money as you wish without government permission is about to end. That’s because a mismanaged global monetary system now requires not only low interest rates but negative interest rates to hold the system together. To be able to take money away from your accounts, you will be forced into a digital only monetary system.  Aside from our loss of personal liberty and privacy, might there be ways to minimize the theft of our wealth by governments and central banks? That and other topics of interest are discussed with David.
Michael provides updates on his structure and momentum of key markets and Quinton explains what is

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Appearance of U.S. Government Solvency

April 12, 2021

Growing fear of financial fragility in the markets and rising fears of inflation are keeping the Fed suppressing the long end of the yield curve and proclaiming anti-inflation rhetoric. It reminds me very much of my early adult years, of the inflationary 1970s, when my first mortgage rate was 17.5%.
Only this time, we are infinitely worse off because we can’t take long-term rates much above 2% or the whole dollar-based system will implode. Money has to be created out of thin air, with the money supply growing infinitely. That’s necessary not only to keep the U.S. government appearing to be solvent but also to paper over growing evidence of insolvent hedge funds and to keep stock prices elevated, lest we have pension funds all over America biting the dust. 
Almost every day, Chairman Powell

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Real World Inflation

March 29, 2021

The financial markets enjoyed a great week at the expense of the monetary metals and commodities. And in his March 25, 2021, missive, Michael Oliver’s work suggests that commodities are likely to become involved in a choppy arm-wrestling consolidation at or around current levels for the next month or two although it is not unreasonable to wonder just how much impact the lack of transport through the Suez Canal will have on prices at the same time massive stimulus is being released in America. But given the torrid pace of inflation in the real world as displayed on the following chart, some sideways action would seem reasonable and welcome. Our government can talk about 2% inflation, but whose kidding who? The chart on your left gives you an idea of the massive inflation in all manner of

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Interest Rates amid Out of Control Spending

March 24, 2021

John Rubino, Corwin Coe and Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program.
As countless thousands of illegal immigrants swarm over the U.S. southern borders from all over the world, Democrats can’t wait to give them free stuff in exchange for votes. It’s as if money grows on trees.  But it doesn’t! Each dollar created has behind it not gold but a dollar of debt. The math doesn’t work because debt is growing much faster than income. Sooner or later, the system will either implode into deflationary depression or explode into a hyperinflation.
How much more of this debt-based money can be produced before we face a hyper inflationary end? That is what was discussed with John. Corwin, who heads up Sitka Gold Corp., provides  updates on not just one but on three exciting gold

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Inflation Fears

March 22, 2021

We witnessed a slight whiff of deflation last week as fears of inflation drove interest rates higher to the point where they started to give stocks a bit of competition. The 10 Yr. Treasury rose to 1.75%, which compares to the 1.34% on the S&P 500. True, you get a 1.82%% dividend yield on the Dow but if it’s income you are looking for, why would you want to own stocks for a mere 7 basis points especially when stocks are at historically high levels and when U.S. Treasuries bring much, much less volatility? Certainly, insurance companies and pension funds must be thinking like that even if retail investors generally are not.
Ten Year U.S. Treasuries
At least before the market started melting down this past week, some people were suggesting that the Fed should allow rates to rise rapidly,

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Central Bank’s Deception of Monetary Reality

March 17, 2021

Chris Powell, Michael Oliver and Patrick Highsmith return as guests this week on the program.
If individuals created money out of thin air as central banks do, they would go to jail for counterfeiting theft. The need for this central bank’s immorality is to be able to clandestinely pick the pockets of its citizens to fund “essential” services run by the military industrial complex and “bleeding heart” socialist politicians.  To achieve that end, the price of gold must be capped within possible limits to con the masses into remaining confident in a dollar that has lost massive amounts of purchasing power.
Chris explains the mechanical operations of how this con job is carried out by America’s ruling elite. Within this con operation gold creeps silently higher over time, allowing retention

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A Sick Cycle of Money Printing

March 15, 2021

In America, money grows on trees. Actually, it doesn’t: In America, money grows from computer keystrokes! So, party on! Wall Street celebrated this week—sort of—though there are growing concerns even among Keynesians that inflationary pressures may be about to get out of hand. Oil was a big weaker this week, but base metals soared and gold and silver found their footing and rose a bit. But the big kicker in my view was a surge in interest rates, evidenced by the decline in the long bond (TLT). Also, my IDW hit yet a new high this week, rising from 181.7 last week to 183.25 as of March 12, 2021.
As Michael Lebowitz, CFA, tweeted out last week, “if the Fed prints friendly gradual inflation, it has a numbing effect. It impoverishes the middle class, 

but enriches those who are already filthy

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