Lance Roberts

Lance Roberts

Finally, financial news that makes sense. Lance Roberts, the host of "StreetTalkLive", has a unique ability to bring the complex world of economics, investing and personal financial wealth building to you in simple, easy and informative ways but also makes it entertaining to listen to at the same time.

Videos by Lance Roberts

When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions

If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. At times, like today, financial and borrowing conditions can be at odds with each other, which makes the Fed’s job of managing monetary policy more difficult. Threading the eye of this needle may prove problematic given that inflation remains too high and, more recently, is showing some signs of being sticky.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

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Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets’ steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance’s unique inflation indicator… Markets still act like there’s a flood of liquidity when there’s not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he can; Blackrock & Merrill want to hold your money forever. Creation of Merrill’s Target Date Fund. Why Annuities are so lucrative; three reasons why

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Do Technical Measures and Valuations Really Matter?

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" – Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they’re too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry

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Are Market Bubbles a Function Of Psychology?

There are three components of a “market bubble.” The first two, price and valuation, often get dismissed or rationalized during the inflation phase. That rationalization is due to investor psychology and the “Fear Of Missing Out (F.O.M.O.)

Stop the re-makes of ’80’s movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed’s Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The mechanics of Social Security: more retirees earlier than

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Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage Plans 2024

What do the Three Stooges and the Fed’s rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We’re living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to deal with reinvestment risks as rates begin to fall; alternatives to getting away from high fixed-income earnings.

3:12 – The Three Rate Cut Stooges
14:23 – Retirement Goal-harvesting
30:16 – Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024
44:33 – Medicare Advantage Risks & Reinvestment Risks as Rates Begin to Drop

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of

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How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You?

Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement. Changes to the Child Tax Credit for 2024 (it’s not a deduction, but a credit against the tax you owe); caveat: It’s not indexed for inflation. What about using insurance products as an investing tool. Danny & Jonathan discuss the evolution of annuities and the best approach for determining their usefulness; how to determine how much to invest in an annuity; the value of long term care policies.

3:05 – Economic Report Preview; Fed Rate Predictions
14:30 – Investor Response & Reaction to Fed Rate Announcement
30:08 – Child Tax Credit for 2024
44:18 –

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Is Your Ex Worth More Dead than Alive?

It’s Fed Day: Danny Ratliff provides a preview in Lance’s absence; mortgage rates are pricing-out most buyers. Is your ex- worth more dead than alive? Taking a look at SS survivors’ benefits: There are some caveats. How to incorporate inflation hedging into your portfolio. Making buying choices to better manage inflation in household budgets. Why some are accessing 401-k funds (and what about those who do not have one?) Understanding target date funds; why they’re generally the default for fund managers. Watch for higher fees and internal expenses; not all funds are created equal. Financial Spring Cleaning in 401-k: watch fund compositions.

3:14 – Fed Day preview & Market Commentary
14:40 – Is Your Ex- Worth More Dead than Alive?
30:30 – How to Hedge for Inflation
44:40 – Understanding

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The Fed’s New Form of QE

There’s a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. ance and Michael discuss the Fed’s Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating recession or inflation? Bank of Japan is ending it’s policy of negative rates; what will be the effect on the US? What’s the risk to the currency carry trade? Japan’s demographic problem. Is the Fed formulating a new type of QE? What QE does; is it inflationary? What the Fed can do; the stealth form of QE: Will it provide liquidity to markets?

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The Bull Market is Showing Some Cracks

We are back from Vacation!
Over the last two weeks, the market’s advance has begun to taper off, and a more rounded top may be forming. While the 20-DMA continues to act as support, a violation of that level could well trigger additional selling. Momentum and relative strength have also shown continued weakness, and both registered “sell signals” on Friday.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Full-Time Employment As A Recession Indicator?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT LUNCH & LEARN:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=47
——–
The latest installment of our new

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We’re On Spring Break

We’re taking a little time off to enjoy family and the absence of alarm clocks for the next week.
Our live shows will return on Monday, March 18, 2024.
Please take a moment to subscribe and you’ll be notified when our next show airs!

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Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN

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Holding Long-term Bonds, but not to Maturity

Market Commentary: When will rate cuts hit? Biden’s SOTU Address: Get ready for higher corporate taxes and an inflation fight. The Death of the 4% Rule? Not yet…the impact of lower interest rates on a viable distribution plan; how to create one as Recession looms. Dealing with durations: Holding long-term bonds, but not to maturity. Credit risk in bonds, and the importance of portfolio fluidity. Distribution planning and timing: What are appropriate benchmarks for portfolio performance? Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? (No.) Why we may be at the peak of rate hike cycle; proactivity is the key. Is bailing on market volatility a loser’s game? Setting reasonable expectations for portfolio risk; what to do when the fundamentals are skewed. (Getting more "likes" than Lance.) Looking at Bond

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Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think

Earnings growth are a function of economic growth; the US Economy is de-coupled from the rest of the world, which economy is poor. The danger of deficits (that are funding our economic growth); SOTU Preview: "The economy is great." Market continues trading in a very tight range, but ever upward; this is when complacency sets in. The market is setting up for correction as the election draws nearer. Are we in a bubble or the market top; how to justify valuations. Cisco vs Nvidia: What is Nvidia worth now? The correlation between Bank reserves and the market. Powell says the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut by EOY. Stocks in the news with less liquidity in the market, yet, financial (lending) conditions are easing? Borrowing activity is at an all-time low: Conditions are very tight. Why

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Proof: How Inflation is Affecting the Economy

Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed’s blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a bubble? Correction this year is very likely; Bitcoin joined by Gold as a speculative asset. The proposed government match to 4-01-k’s: Nice idea, but few will be able to take advantage; and what about the unintended consequences? the effect of inflation on the economy. Why cap savings? IF the economy is doing so great, why do we feel so bad about it? The Hunger Games & the Kellogg’s boycott.

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Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target’s earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance’s emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We’re still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF’s: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF’s adds an additional layer of volatility.

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Warren Buffett’s Cash Dilemma

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.

3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren

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How to Plan for Social Security “Viability”

Social Security Viability: Let the Propaganda Begin
As discussions ensue about the best way to bring the Social Security system into actuarial balance, the raising of the maximum wage base is emerging as a popular solution.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Apple’s Magic- Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/apples-magic-are-buybacks-worth-paying-up-for/
"This Is Nuts – An Entire Market Chasing One Stock"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/this-is-nuts-an-entire-market-chasing-one-stock/
"Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk According To NFIB Data"

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Five Money Habits of Unhappy Couples

Nothing sinks a marriage quicker than money issues. If the Valentine’s Day glow has faded, promise you’ll respect your lover’s credit, communicate about your money, and share together money tips to help revive your financial harmony.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan MCCarty, CFA, CFP, NSSA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer, & Erica Theriot, Marketing Director

0:10 – INTRO
1:30 – Don’t Disrespect the Credit
8:30 – Are You Talking?
11:35 – Do You Understand my Blueprint?
21:29 – Avoid “Bailout City!”
25:50 – Resentment is Poison!
30:25 – What Successful Couples Do
35:20 – Big Purchases? Talk First!
40:55 – Don’t Dismiss Money DNA!
50:49 – The Bailout Rule. One and Done

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Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple

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11 Pearls of Investing Wisdom from Warren Buffett

Markets continue to trade sideways as the latest earnings season draws to a close. Stock buy-backs will continue for the next three weeks, and then halt in preparation for the NEXT round of earnings reporting. Warren Buffett on buy-backs: Need to occur when companies are under-valued relative to markets for optimal effect; companies are now buying back at high prices. Company stocks are still trading despite 40% reporting negative earnings. What happens when men get sick; Lance answers an email about struggles with higher expenses, despite zero debt; Lance & Danny discuss families’ cost-cutting strategies. Wendy’s experiments with surge pricing; investing wisdom from Warrenn Buffett: What’s he going to do with all that cash? The temptation for "catching-up" in portfolios, and the lure of

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This Is Nuts – An Entire Market Chasing One Stock

Preparing for this week’s economic data releases; what the Fed looks at for Inflation; earnings season concludes with good beat-rate…on lowered expectations. Dow Theory theory and Amazon’s joining the S&P 500: When does Nvidia enter the index? Analysts are raising targets for the S&P to 5800 by the end of the year, based on performance of Nvidia and other tech stocks: This is nuts. Markets continue to trade within narrowly-defined trading range based on rising 20-DMA. Marriage Rules are nuts; Nvidia’s price-to-sales ratio is un-attainable and un-sustainable. Nvidia’s market share gains are other stocks’ market share losses. Wall Street’s perceptions of the economy vs the rest of us; the dichotomy between headline economics and reality. Why food is taking a bigger bite out of our

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Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk

Retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that, historically, small capitalization companies tend to perform best during the early stages of an economic recovery. Since debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the promised economic growth, disappointment over the next year is almost guaranteed.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——-
Articles mentioned in this report:
"Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk According To NFIB Data:"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/small-cap-stocks-may-be-at-risk-according-to-nfib-data/
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The latest

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What To Do When You Regret Retirement

Is Nvidia more than a market darling, and has it entered the "tulip stage?" (We don’t know when the tulip will die.) How to invest with the maddening crowd without going mad. Candid Coffee preview (registration link is below!) Couples, Money, & Communication: Make it fun (Amazon shots?) Pensions vs Social Security: the confounding Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO) rules. Why you cannot (fully) take both SS and Pensions. What to do when you regret retiring; even transition to retirement is a regret. Why small business owners sabotage their transition. Failing to prioritize health in retirement; the new Score dating app. Why retirees have regrets; How to leave a legacy without heirs. The importance of physical excercise for mental health & wellness.

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Are The Magnificent Seven Stocks In A Bubble?

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

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Will Nvidia Break the Market?

It’s Nvidia earnings reporting day, and as tech companies have driven markets of late, the results, and the company’s forward guidance, could have a huge effect. Earnings expectations are extremely high; risk of disappointment is high. The S&P is testing a rising trendline at the 20-DMA, against a negative divergence in relative strength. The dichotomy is unsustainable. The Conference Board releases latest survey of leading economic indicators, down for a 23rd consecutive month (but no one is expecting Recession!) What is keeping us out of Recession is remaining liquidity from government cash injections. No Recession because of "strong consumer spending," but is it, really? Spending more at the store, but buying the same or less. WSJ survey shows grocery spending as % of income at a

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Don’t Fear the All-time Highs

There are "Dow Days" and "NSDQ Days;" CPI inflation is still transitory; emerging influence of presidential election on Congress’ ability to manage debt & spending, M-2 as % of GDP. There is little expectation for earnings growth this year. Markets remain in bullish trend, but a negative day today could trigger MCD Sell-signal. Time to reduce portfolio risk and wait until correction to put capital back to work. Instead of fearing market exuberance, understanding what drives it can provide you with insight and opportunity. look at Employment data and the frustration of college grads unable to find jobs. The Immigration connection to it all: Why we need (merit-based) immigration: Demography is destiny.

2:28 – Dow Days vs NSDQ Days: Correction Coming
13:43 – Understanding ll-time Highs

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Should I Delay Social Security?

The Fed is in no rush to lower rates, based on the latest economic data; we’ve gone from transitory to permatory inflation; rents are not going to fall, but rates are not going to go up. Fed Gov. Bostick: Rates are not going down until later, based on Labor data. Candid Coffee preview: The problem with Financial Infidelity; does it pay to delay taking Social Security? (It depends…) What’s the best claiming strategy? Rich & Danny critique AI-generated Candy Hearts; why RMD’s are going to be trickier; the benefits of delay; impact of Roth conversions. What happened to the stretch-IRA?

2:38 – No Rush for Fed to Lower Rates
14:01 – The Problem of Financial Infidelity; Does it Pay to Delay taking SS?
29:48 – AI-generated Candy Hearts; Why RMD’s are Going to be Trickier
43:58 – Best

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Is Toyota the Next Tesla?

The post-Valentine’s Day afterglow; Markets are not behaving like it’s February (typically a weaker month), so far. The NFIB Small Business Survey belies weaker conditions and negative sentiment; there is a correlation between the NFIB and Small Cap Index. Markets continue to do well, despite weaker economic activity; bonds showing promise; NVIDIA captures 3rd place in S&P 500, unseating Amazon & Google. Commentary on pending legislation to reclassify Homelessness as a Healthcare issue; economic data preview: Retail Sales could be weaker; PPI and weaker regional manufacturing reports; the impact of Government Debt is a drag on economic growth; the continuing effects of fiscal stimulus. The Components of CPI: Homeowners Equivalent Rent/Shelter vs PCU (what the Fed looks at); the flaws in

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So You Think You’re Ready to Retire… (2/14/24)

(2/14/24) Financial advisors have significantly different perceptions of their clients’ retirement readiness than do the clients themselves, according to Allspring Global Investments’ annual retirement survey, released Tuesday.
While some two-thirds of retirees and near-retirees considered themselves ready for retirement, only 40% of advisors, who were included in the survey for the first time, said their clients were ready.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——-
Register for our next Candid Coffee: "Five Money Habits of Unhappy Couples," Saturday, February 24, 2024:
https://streamyard.com/watch/xRDYWQQqdFaF
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Divergences

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It’s CPI Day! – the Impact Gas prices may Have

(2/13/24) It’s CPI Day (the Consumer Price Index increased .3% in January; on an annualized basis, CPI dropped from December 3.4% to 3.1% for January.) Actors, do not lie on your application (especially involving roller skates and the Super Bowl Halftime!) Amazon hit with class action lawsuit over upcharge for ad-free viewing. Markets start Monday flat, spike a bit, and end flat. Correction is one day closer today than yesterday; why managing risk makes sense. That doesn’t mean going all to cash. Romance scams abound for Valentine’s Day; how might gasoline prices factor into today’s CPI print?

2:48 – CPI Day, Roller skates, & Amazon Prime snafu
14:29 – Why Managing Risk Makes Sense Now
30:03 – Why Not Go to Cash Now?
44:04 – Romance Scams & CPI Expectations

Hosted by RIA Advisors

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Homes Are About to Get Less Affordable (2/12/24)

(2/12/24) Markets reached the magical 5,000 mark on Friday, and momentum will continue to carry investors forward, but for only so long; how we’re preparing for the eventual pullback. A correction of between 2% and 5%, and up to 10% would not be out of the realm of possibility, and normal in any year. The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Lance runs the charts to demonstrate market dynamics and cause-and-effect of Fed manipulations; why Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s recipe for lower rates is a disaster in the making. Lowering interest rates is not the solution to lowering housing prices. Lower interest rates would bring more buyers into a market already short inventory, thereby increasing home prices. The Fed’s inflation expectations will be put to

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