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Mike Mish Shedlock

Mike Mish Shedlock

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Articles by Mike Mish Shedlock

UPS Quietly Using Self-Driving Trucks For Months

August 23, 2019

UPS teamed up with TuSimple in May for autonomous delivery of cargo.Gizmodo reports UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew.
UPS announced on Thursday that its venture capital arm has made a minority investment in TuSimple. The announcement also revealed that since May TuSimple autonomous trucks have been hauling UPS loads on a 115-mile route between Phoenix and Tucson.
UPS confirmed to Gizmodo this is the first time UPS has announced it has been using TuSimple autonomous trucks to deliver packages in the state.
Around the same time as the UPS and TuSimple program began, the United States Postal Service and TuSimple publicized a two-week pilot program to deliver mail between Phoenix and

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‘Zero Has No Meaning’ Says Greenspan

August 15, 2019

Negative yields? Who cares says Greenspan. It’s meaningless.Negative Yields “No Big Deal”Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan sees No Barriers to Prevent Negative Treasury Yields.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal.
“There is international arbitrage going on in the bond market that is helping drive long-term Treasury yields lower,” Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said in a phone interview. “There is no barrier for U.S. Treasury yields going below zero. Zero has no meaning, beside being a certain level.”
Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., detailed

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Fed Trapped in a Rate-Cutting Box

August 12, 2019

The Fed desperately needs to keep credit expanding or the economy will collapse. However, it’s an unsustainable scheme.Key Debt Points
In 1984 it took $1 of additional debt to create an additional $1 of Real GDP.
As of the fourth quarter of 2018, it took $3.8 dollars to create $1 of real GDP.
As of 2013, it took more than a dollar of public debt to create a dollar of GDP.
If interest rates were 3.0%, interest on total credit market debt would be a whopping $2.16 trillion per year. That approximately 11.5% of real GDP year in and year out.
Total Credit Market Debt Detail

Tiny Credit Drawdown, Massive Economic Damage
Note the massive amount of economic damage caused by a tiny drawdown in credit during the Great Recession
Q. Why?
A. Leverage.
The Fed halted the Great

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Nigel Farage Offers Boris Johnson a Chance To Work Together

July 31, 2019

Nigel Farage wants to help Boris Johnson deliver Brexit. Boris should accept the offer gratefully.In a Telegraph Op-Ed Nigel Farage says Boris, the country is crying out for leadership – but with my party’s help, we can resolve Brexit.
The European elections were a sobering experience for the Tories. Their support fell to only 10 per cent of the vote and I already know of several large-scale Tory donors who switched to the Brexit Party overnight. Arguably, the Conservatives’ future is already in doubt. Suddenly, it is ‘do-or-die’ not just for Brexit, but for the Conservative Party as well.
Mr Johnson should realize that he is going to have to risk his longed-for position as PM to ensure Brexit is enacted properly. There is no

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EU About To Face 2 Realities

July 29, 2019

Hello EU. Meet Boris Johnson and his negotiating team. While doing so, think about recession.Vote Leave Reality

One of the most effective reshuffles ever?
– Quick– Thorough– Razor clear direction– Shows Boris can be serious,– & his ambition is not merely to be PM but actually to deliver Brexit
I disagree with the direction but reshuffles are usually butchered, not executed so well.
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) July 25, 2019

Johnson Will Deliver Brexit
Eurointelligence has finally come around to my long-held four-point stance.
Boris Johnson is not bluffing.
He will deliver Brexit.
The EU would be wise to make a deal.
Germany and the Eurozone will be in a world of hurt if they don’t.
From Eurointelligence
Forget the cabinet

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Electric Car Major Headache

June 24, 2019

A trip from LA to Las Vegas and back takes 8 hours by a gas-powered car but 13 hours by an electric vehicle.The electric vehicle grand vision may flounder on something most drivers take for granted: a quick pit stop.The inconvenient truth of electric vehicles is they are terribly inconvenient to own and operate. Most cars need a charge after 200 to 250 miles traveled.Charging them requires finding a charging station, and then an open bay.
The New York Times reports L.A. to Vegas and Back by Electric Car: 8 Hours Driving; 5 More Plugged In.
The NYT author, Ivan Penn, drove a Chevrolet Bolt from LA to Las Vegas, a 540-mile round trip that many people make regularly.
Penn reports that in addition to eight hours on the road, he spent

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St Louis Fed Promotes Still More Free Money for Banks

May 22, 2019

St Louis Fed researchers concocted a scheme to pay banks still more free money, but this time hiding all of it.At the current rate of 2.35%, the Fed hands out about $33.58 billion in free money to the banks.Interest Rate on Excess Reserves
The two charts show the moving target.
Excess reserves peaked at $2.7 trillion in August of 2014 but the interest rate on excess reserves then was only 0.25%.
0.25% of $2.7 trillion is “only” $6.75 billion in free money at an annualized rate. At the current rate, banks take in over $33 billion in free money.
The peak annualized rate was probably in August of 2017 with the interest on excess reserves at 1.95% on $2.2 trillion. That’s free money to the tune of $42.9 billion at an annualized rate.
St. Louis Fed Proposal

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Theresa May Will Not Stand Down

May 9, 2019

Like waving a flag in front of a bull, May taunts the 1922 Committee. They have to change the rules to get rid of her.The Tory party has rules. The key rule at the moment is that a leadership challenge to remove a Prime Minister can happen only once in 365 days. Theresa May survived a leadership challenge in December of 2018.The “men in gray suits” comment is a reference to the 1922 committee.Although 80% of Tory MPs want May out, it’s the 1922 Committee that sets the rules. Yesterday, Sir Graham Brady, head of the rules committee issued an ultimatum: Pick Your Resignation Date or We Will.The committee cannot pick a resignation date, but it can change the rules and hold a leadership challenge vote.
May Taunts the Committee

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Hello Jerome Powell, We Have Questions

March 30, 2019

This is an open letter to Jerome Powell and the Fed. Dear Mr. Powell, In your March 8 speech on Normalization and the Road Ahead, you spoke of diversity, zero-bound interest rate problem, and the Fed’s path to normalization. You noted “Makeup strategies are probably the most prominent idea and deserve serious attention,” while simultaneously admitting …

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The Recycling Movement Fails

March 21, 2019

US Cities are abandoning recycling efforts because it’s too costly. And China no longer accepts even our sorted garbage.The Wall Street Journal reports Aluminum Makers Ditch Can Business.Used cans are piling up at scrapyards because U.S. aluminum companies are turning fewer of them into new metal, another indication of the economic challenges facing recycling.Arconic Inc. and other aluminum rollers are producing less sheet for beverage cans and more higher-margin, flat-rolled aluminum for automotive and industrial components. Prices for used aluminum cans in the U.S. have fallen about 30% since last summer. Old cans are less versatile than other scrap. The makers of airplane and car parts prefer not to use aluminum made from

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AOC’s ‘New Green Deal’ Is Stunningly Absurd

February 9, 2019

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) released her bill for a “Green New Deal”. It’s stunningly absurd.Today AOC released her New Green Deal Proposal. It’s a wish list of socialist and green ideas, most of which are obviously absurd to all but the most economically clueless persons. It has zero chance of passage and it’s nonbinding, but here are some of the key ideas.
Upgrade all existing buildings in the US
100% clean power
Support family farms
Universal access to healthy food
Zero-emission vehicle infrastructure
Remove greenhouse gasses form the atmosphere
Eliminate unfair competition
Affordable access to electricity
Create high-quality union jobs that pay prevailing wages
Guaranteeing a job with a family sustaining wage,

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Trump will ‘Absolutely’ Shut Down the Government

December 18, 2018

Miller, on verge of frothing at mouth over immigration, says Trump will “absolutely” shut down the government over Christmas unless he gets funding for the border wall.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) December 16, 2018

What to Expect
Here’s what to expect in a Government Shutdown.
The Postal Service is an independent agency, so it won’t be affected in any government shutdown.
Air-traffic controllers still will be on the job and customs and border agents will continue working at border crossings.
Amtrak, a government-owned corporation, also will operate as usual.
Those who want to go to national parks and federally operated museums could find popular places closed or hours curtailed.
The national zoos may close but the zoo’s animal caretakers

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Kavanaugh’s Detailed 1982 Calendar

September 26, 2018

Every day, evidence mounts that Ford’s story is blatantly false. Perhaps she believes it, but that doesn’t make it true.Please consider Kavanaugh Will Use 1982 Calendar to Deny Sex Assault Claims.
Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh will turn over calendars to the Senate Judiciary Committee from 1982 that do not show him attending a high school party where Christine Blasey Ford said he sexually attacked her, according to a report on Sunday.
The calendars show that Kavanaugh, then a teenager, was out of town during most of that summer at the beach or with his parents, the New York Times reported, citing someone working on his confirmation hearings.
While at home in suburban Maryland, Kavanaugh’s calendar listed basketball games,

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Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test

September 21, 2018

Before looking at the “Dilbert” method, please consider USA Today’s editorial Kavanaugh, too? Christine Blasey Ford’s account is missing key details of assault by Penny Nance.
Two decades ago, while pregnant with my first child, I was running in Northern Virginia when I was attacked by a man much larger and stronger than myself. I survived the attempted rape — but I’ll never forget it, in fact I remember every detail all these years later.
Twenty years after Bill Clinton — then the attorney general and highest ranking law enforcement officer in the state of Arkansas — allegedly raped Juanita Broaddrick, she remembered every detail as she told NBC’s Lisa Myers during a prime time interview. She even remembered Clinton biting her

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Mass Hysteria?

July 18, 2018

The mass hysteria following Trump’s meeting with Putin is likely to last for days. Most are outraged. Few see the light.My article Congratulations to President Trump for an Excellent Summit with Putin spawned numerous some I could not tell if they were sarcastic or not.For example, reader Brian stated ” There is zero doubt now that Putin stole the election from Hillary. So much so that she MUST be given the nomination again in 2020. All potential challengers must step aside. To refuse her the 2020 nomination would be evidence of traitorous activities with Putin.”‘I congratulated Brian for brilliant sarcasm but he piled on. It now seems he was serious.
Mainstream media, the Left an the Right were in general condemnation.
Numerous cries of treason emerged from the

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July 6, 2018

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany leaving a meeting of the Christian Democratic Union in Berlin early Monday. “We share a common goal in migration policy,” the party said in a statement. “We want to order, control and limit migration to Germany.”Say what?When did this become Germany’s goal? And what about refugee camps in Africa, with no African nation agreeing?The New York Times reports Merkel, to Survive, Agrees to Border Camps for Migrants.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who staked her legacy on welcoming hundreds of thousands of migrants into Germany, agreed on Monday to build border camps for asylum seekers and to tighten the border with Austria in a political deal to save her government.
Although the move to appease the

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Build a Wall, Make Africa Pay for It

June 30, 2018

The EU meets today in a futile attempt to solve a near impossible problem. A page from Trump’s playbook might help.Given the incessant bickering between EU countries over migration issues, it’s time to think outside the box. Here is the 5-Point Dilemma.
Germany Merkel’s CDU: Seek a consensus solution under existing EU rules.
Germany Seehofer’s CSU: Turn them back at the border (i.e. Send them back to Italy through Austria)
Italy Five Star and the League: Change the “Dublin Rules” which state migrants must apply for asylum in the first country in which they land. Italy wants to distribute existing migrants throughout EU. It also supports “safe areas” in Africa.
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia: All refuse new migrants
Austria: Austria’s Prime Minister, Sebastian

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Get Ready To Pack Your Bags

June 7, 2018

Things are about to heat up in the EU. Italy’s ministers threaten the EU/EMU with mass deportations.Italy’s new leaders tell 500,000 immigrants: Pack Your Bags.
The right-wing Lega party, which formed a coalition government with Five-Star Movement (M5S) last week, is the driving force behind anti-immigration rhetoric and it is looking to fulfil a pledge to deport as many as 500,000 illegal migrants.
Lega leader Matteo Salvini — who is now Italy’s deputy prime minister and interior minister — reiterated the government’s aim to deport illegal migrants on a visit to Sicily last weekend.
On Saturday, speaking at a rally in northern Italy, Salvini had told illegal migrants “get ready to pack your bags.”
On Sunday, Salvini said the only way

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Is College Worth the Cost?

April 18, 2018

New schools are popping up. Some offer one year programs but no college degree. Good idea?Ben Carlson at Wealth of Common Sense is irked by the question: Is College Worth the Cost?
Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian gave some advice to young people in a recent interview with the New York Times:
“Do you really need to go to college? There is a huge student loan debt problem in this country. I think there’s going to need to be a drastic change in how these universities work. And I also think we’ve lambasted the trades for way too long. You can make six figures as a welder.”
These kinds of statements irk me, especially when they come from rich entrepreneurs. This line of thinking reeks of survivorship bias.
Successful entrepreneurs must

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Mariano Rajoy, You are a Disgrace To Spain

October 3, 2017

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, the man who said there would not be a vote, now has to face the facts: 90% Voted for Independence.

📊 Resultats del Referèndum de #1OCT
— Govern. Generalitat (@govern) October 1, 2017

90% of the 2.26 million Catalans who voted on Sunday voted in favour of independence, according to preliminary results released by the region’s government. The region has 5.3 million voters. Officials said 770,000 votes were lost due to disruption which resulted in polling stations being raided by Spanish police.
Carles Puigdemont, Catalan’s leader, announced in a televised statement that the region had earned the right to become an independent state and that results would be passed the region’s parliament in the coming days.

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Equifax Is Not Your Friend

September 19, 2017

The Equifax security breach scandal keeps growing and growing. Their handling of the data breach that affected as many as 143 million accounts has been horrendous.
Executives dumped their shares before reporting the stolen data. Following the breach, their website did not function properly, people got signed up for programs they did not want or need, and customer service has been dismal all around.Equifax is Not Your Friend
InTheseTimes reports The Equifax Hacking Scandal Is a Reminder That Credit-Reporting Agencies Are Not Our Friends.
Last week, Equifax—one of the country’s three major credit-reporting agencies alongside Experian and Transunion—revealed that its security apparatus had been breached. “Hackers” obtained private financial

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India Fears Run on Banks

December 31, 2016

Indian banks are fearful of running out of cash as lines queue up to withdraw money.
Bankers say they cannot cope with any sudden increase in demand, and warn against lifting cash withdrawal limits.

A decision by New Delhi on November 8 to scrap all large-denomination banknotes overnight removed 86 per cent of India’s currency from circulation. In an effort to prevent banks running out of cash, the finance ministry then imposed strict limits on the amount of new notes that could be withdrawn. Customers can currently withdraw just Rs2,500 from an ATM per day — equivalent to $37 — or Rs24,000 over the counter per week.
Myths, Misunderstandings and Outright lies about owning Gold. Are you at risk?
“If the government lifts the limits on Friday and there is a sudden rush,

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German Media Aid Merkel

December 23, 2016

German media is solidly behind Angela Merkel as the US media was behind Hillary Clinton. German reporting of the recent terrorist truck incident was in a single word “pathetic”.
Thanks to chancellor Merkel, it’s politically incorrect to presume refugees are a problem. Worse yet, the media cooperates.
Culture of Denial
The following via email from Eurointelligence.
Why are the most advertised Gold and Silver coins NOT the best way to invest?
The discussion about the terror attack in Berlin has turned political very quickly, with some commentators now wondering openly whether this might cost Angela Merkel the elections.
This is at its most fundamental a story about denial. The German establishment, and their friends in the media, are in denial that Merkel’s

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Eurozone Showdown Coming

December 14, 2016

The eurozone cannot survive without Italy. The serious problem at the moment is the Eurozone also cannot survive with Italy.
Two of Italy’s three largest parties are anti-Euro. The only party in Italy that does support the euro is ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party. And with Renzi gone, there’s a huge risk the party splinters.
Regardless, there are no likely scenarios that can keep things from flying apart according to Wolfgang Münchau. I believe his analysis is solid.
Münchau makes a detailed case why the eurozone is doomed in Italy Poses a Huge Threat to the Euro and Union.
Myths, Misunderstandings and Outright lies about owning Gold. Are you at risk?
He lists five ways the Eurozone can stay intact. However, none of them stands up to close

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War on Cash Becomes War on Gold

December 9, 2016

Global financial repression picks up steam, led by India. After declaring large denomination notes illegal, India now targets gold.
It’s not just gold bars or bullion. The government has raided houses, no questions asked, confiscating jewelry.
For background to this article, please see my November 27 article Cash Chaos in India, 86% of Money in Circulation Withdrawn; Cash Still King in Japan.
Large denomination means 500-rupee ($7.30) and 1,000-rupee notes ($14.60), which account for more than 85 percent of the money supply. They are no longer legal tender, effective immediately.
As one might imagine, chaos ensued. And it continues.
Myths, Misunderstandings and Outright lies about owning Gold. Are you at risk?
India Confiscates Gold
Picking up where we left off, please

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They Shopped Until They Dropped—–August Consumer Spending Up 0.00%

September 30, 2016

Personal income rose 0.2% in August, as economists expected. However, consumer spending rose 0.0% vs. the Econoday Consensus estimate of 0.2%.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index came in at +0.1% vs. a consensus of +0.2%. Last month the PCE was flat. This certainly is not what the Fed expected or wanted.
Year-over-year, PCE is up 1.0%, with the core PCE (excluding food and energy) up 1.7%.

August was a soft month for the consumer, both for income and especially for spending. Income rose only 0.2 percent in the month as wages & salaries, which had been on a 4-month surge, could inch only 1 tenth higher in August. Consumer spending, which had also been on a 4-month winning streak, came in unchanged as durable goods declined, largely reflecting monthly weakness in vehicle sales, as did non-durable goods, in part reflecting low fuel prices. Service spending advanced, at plus 0.3 percent, but at a slower rate than prior months. Despite the weakness in income, the consumer put money into savings which are at a 5.7 percent rate for a 1 tenth gain and a special factor that held down spending.
Inflation readings do show more life with the PCE price index up 0.1 percent and the core up 0.2 percent, both 1 tenth better than the prior month. Year-on-year, the overall measure rose 2 tenths to 1.0 percent with the core up 1 tenth to 1.

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Durables Goods Orders Less Transportation Negative Y/Y For 20th Straight Month

September 28, 2016

Factory orders did way better than the Econoday consensus estimate of -1.9% but that was against a revision that took July from +4.4% to +3.6%. The good news pretty much stops there.
The headline, at a monthly zero percent, is flat and so are the indications from the bulk of the August durable goods report. Excluding transportation, orders slipped 0.4 percent. This reading excludes a 22 percent downswing in civilian aircraft orders that is offset in part, however, by a solid 0.7 percent gain for vehicle orders. Readings on core capital goods (nondefense excluding aircraft) are mixed with orders up 0.6 percent, which points to shipment strength ahead, but current shipments are down -0.4 to extend a long string of declines going back to May. The weakness here in shipments is a negative for business investment in the GDP report.
Aside from vehicles and a strong gain for defense capital goods, good news is hard to find in today’s report. Total shipments are down 0.4 percent following no change in July while unfilled orders, which last posted a gain in April, fell 0.1 percent. Inventories did fall, down 0.1 percent, but not enough to keep the inventory-to-shipments ratio from rising to a less lean 1.66 from July’s 1.65.
Another negative in the report is a downward revision to July where the gain in total orders is shaved 8 tenths to 3.6 percent.

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Deutsche Bank’s Monumental Mess—Merkel Says No State Aid, Depositor Bail-In Coming Up?

September 24, 2016

The €72 trillion (notional) derivatives mess known as Deutsche Bank remains under severe pressure. It’s market cap is $17.43 billion. It has no earnings and pays no dividend.
On April 23, Deutsche Bank was Fined $2.5 Billion over LIBOR rate rigging. Twenty-one people face criminal charges following a seven-year investigation.
On September 16, the US Department of Justice Fined Deutsche Bank $14B for mortgage securities fraud leading up to the 2007-2009 global meltdown.
Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel Rules Out Assistance for Deutsche Bank.
No Comment
Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out any state assistance for Deutsche Bank AG in the year heading into the national election in September 2017, Focus magazine reported, citing unidentified government officials.
The German leader also declined to step into the Frankfurt-based bank’s legal imbroglio with the U.S. Justice Department, which may seek as much as $14 billion in sanctions against Deutsche Bank’s mortgage-backed securities business, the magazine said. A German government spokesman declined to comment on the report Saturday. A Deutsche Bank spokeswoman also wouldn’t comment.
Understanding the Fine
The Guardian reports $14bn Deutsche Bank Fine – All You Need to Know.
The prospect of a $14bn penalty from the US Department of Justice has rattled investor confidence in Deutsche.

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Can the Immigrant Crisis Be Solved?

September 20, 2016

UK prime minister Theresa May will address the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. She seeks UN Action to Control Mass Migration Flows.
In contrast, I propose a 10-point “common sense” solution, not UN action.
Let’s start with May’s proposal.
Theresa May will use her first appearance as British prime minister at a United Nations General Assembly meeting starting Monday to urge fellow leaders to do more to control mass migration, which she’ll argue hurts both refugees and the countries they enter.
May will say the migrants should be encouraged to claim asylum in the first safe country they reach.
Meanwhile the EU’s open internal borders have allowed large population flows, with many Eastern Europeans traveling to richer countries in search of a better life. It

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Thinking of a Dem Donation?

September 19, 2016

Things are not going well for the Hillary campaign these days.
She is without a doubt sick, but no one knows what. Anyone trusting the pneumonia diagnosis as the full truth has mush for brains.
Her “deplorables” comment backfired miserably.
And today we learned that the Clinton campaign has been dinging donors multiple times for “one-time” donations.
Recurring “One Time” Donations
Please consider Hillary Clinton Campaign Systematically Overcharging Poorest Donors.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is stealing from her poorest supporters by purposefully and repeatedly overcharging them after they make what’s supposed to be a one-time small donation through her official campaign website, multiple sources tell the Observer.
The overcharges are occurring so often that

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