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Mike Mish Shedlock

Mike Mish Shedlock

Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Articles by Mike Mish Shedlock

Semi-Annual Debate: What About Daylight Savings Time Hell?

19 days ago

On Sunday, November 3, those on Daylight Savings Time need to adjust their clocks. Does this make any sense?Hell to PayIt’s nice when you gain an hour of sleep. But it seems like hell when you lose one.Only a Joke
Many don’t know this but Benjamin Franklin proposed Daylight Savings Time as a Joke.
In case every news anchor on your television screen telling you to “spring forward” hasn’t been enough of a reminder, Sunday marks the start of Daylight Saving Time, a bizarre routine in which most Americans’ iPhones automatically steal an hour of sleep from them.
The act of moving the clock an hour forward in an effort to save time in the sun during the warmer months is almost always credited to Philadelphia’s most famous son, Benjamin

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A Very Good Brexit Deal But a Constitutional Challenge Looms

October 18, 2019

A deal has been reached. Jean-Claude Juncker opposes an extension. A constitutional challenge to the deal is underway.Juncker Does Not Back an ExtensionEuropean Commission President and the EU have reached a deal. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker opposes and extension. That is not his call but it is what I expected..In the video, Juncker says he is happy for a deal but sad to see the UK go.Reasonable Deal

Boris deal sounds better than the WA. End free movement, end ECJ supremacy over UK law, backstop ditched, & can do free trade agreements. I want to read the detail before making up my mind. But well done Boris for getting this far & doing what others said was impossible
— Andrea Jenkyns MP (@andreajenkyns)

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Comrade Elizabeth Warren Blames Businesses for Everything

October 11, 2019

Businesses are bracing for for sweeping changes, none of it any good.Democrat front-runner Elizabeth Elizabeth wants to Remake Capitalism From the Ground Up. It would help if she had a clue what capitalism is all about.
A President Warren would seek to regulate big tech companies as utilities, break up big banks and split them from securities dealers, ban fracking of oil and gas, phase out carbon emission from buildings, cars and power plants in eight to 15 years, require big companies to appoint worker representatives to at least 40% of board seats, ban private health insurance and, effectively, for-profit college, and negotiate down drug prices.
Her policies would directly affect companies with sales of nearly $5 trillion and

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Brexit ‘Surrender’ Strategy: Winning Ugly

September 30, 2019

Boris Johnson and his political strategist Dominic Cummings have labeled the efforts by Parliament a “Surrender” act.
Surrender Act
Boris Johnson labels the acts of Parliament to stop No Deal a “Surrender Act”.This is correct, of course.If you take away the EU’s incentives to negotiate, they are less likely to do so.It’s not a complete white flag as Johnson has other, albeit undisclosed options, in which he proclaims two seemingly contradictory ideas.
He will abide by the Benn legislation seeking an extension
He will not ask for an extension
Incite Violence
As noted by the Guardian Live blog, Amber Rudd says Boris Johnson’s language ‘Does Incite Violence’
The claim is preposterous.
The Labour MP Jess Phillips says she has

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Trump’s Unwinnable Trade War: Gold Explains Why

September 28, 2019

Trump wants to cure trade imbalances via tariffs. It cannot possibly work.Another Look at NAFTAOne of my readers proposed that problems US balance of trade issues started with NAFTA. Wrong!
Please consider Disputing Trump’s NAFTA “Catastrophe” with Pictures: What’s the True Source of Trade Imbalances?
Explaining Balance of Trade

Trump’s Mission Impossible
It is impossible for tariffs to fix problems caused by making the dollar the world’s reserve currency then removing the last constraints on global deficit spending!
If you support Trump’s tariffs as some sort of cure to trade imbalances, please read the above sentence over and over again until it finally sinks in that Trump is on a foolish path.
Historic Balance of Trade

From 1866 to 1968 the US generally had a

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Negative Interest Rates Are Social-Political Poison

September 25, 2019

The interest rate business model is dead. Negative interest rates killed it, with no replacement in sight.Anne Kunz and Holger Zschäpitz co-authored an excellent article for Welt (in German) called the Interest Rate Business Model is Dead.Here are some excerpts via Google translate with many of my own modifications. For example, the title itself is my translation, not Google’s.Google has the title as “Business Model With the Interest is Dead“.I made an educated guess that Google’s title isn’t quite right.
I picked up the article from this Tweet.

#ECB has ruined business model of German banks, which borrow money short term & lend long term. Banks can no longer earn money w/flat yield curve: maturity transformation business is dead. Commerzbank shares dive in tandem

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Danish and Swiss Banks To Charge Customers 0.75% Interest on Large Deposits

September 23, 2019

Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75%. Banks will pass this on to large customers.Please consider Denmark’s Jyske Bank Lowers its Negative Rates on Deposits.
Jyske Bank said on Friday people with more than $111,100 in their bank accounts will be charged more for their deposits as it seeks to pass on some of the costs of recent rate cuts by the European and Danish central bank.
Jyske Bank, Denmark’s second-largest bank, said it would introduce a negative interest rate of 0.75% for all corporate deposits and for private clients depositing more than 750,000 Danish crowns ($111,100) from Dec 1.
Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its key deposit rate to minus 0.75%, a record low among developed economies.

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UPS Quietly Using Self-Driving Trucks For Months

August 23, 2019

UPS teamed up with TuSimple in May for autonomous delivery of cargo.Gizmodo reports UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew.
UPS announced on Thursday that its venture capital arm has made a minority investment in TuSimple. The announcement also revealed that since May TuSimple autonomous trucks have been hauling UPS loads on a 115-mile route between Phoenix and Tucson.
UPS confirmed to Gizmodo this is the first time UPS has announced it has been using TuSimple autonomous trucks to deliver packages in the state.
Around the same time as the UPS and TuSimple program began, the United States Postal Service and TuSimple publicized a two-week pilot program to deliver mail between Phoenix and

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‘Zero Has No Meaning’ Says Greenspan

August 15, 2019

Negative yields? Who cares says Greenspan. It’s meaningless.Negative Yields “No Big Deal”Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan sees No Barriers to Prevent Negative Treasury Yields.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal.
“There is international arbitrage going on in the bond market that is helping drive long-term Treasury yields lower,” Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said in a phone interview. “There is no barrier for U.S. Treasury yields going below zero. Zero has no meaning, beside being a certain level.”
Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., detailed

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Fed Trapped in a Rate-Cutting Box

August 12, 2019

The Fed desperately needs to keep credit expanding or the economy will collapse. However, it’s an unsustainable scheme.Key Debt Points
In 1984 it took $1 of additional debt to create an additional $1 of Real GDP.
As of the fourth quarter of 2018, it took $3.8 dollars to create $1 of real GDP.
As of 2013, it took more than a dollar of public debt to create a dollar of GDP.
If interest rates were 3.0%, interest on total credit market debt would be a whopping $2.16 trillion per year. That approximately 11.5% of real GDP year in and year out.
Total Credit Market Debt Detail

Tiny Credit Drawdown, Massive Economic Damage
Note the massive amount of economic damage caused by a tiny drawdown in credit during the Great Recession
Q. Why?
A. Leverage.
The Fed halted the Great

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Nigel Farage Offers Boris Johnson a Chance To Work Together

July 31, 2019

Nigel Farage wants to help Boris Johnson deliver Brexit. Boris should accept the offer gratefully.In a Telegraph Op-Ed Nigel Farage says Boris, the country is crying out for leadership – but with my party’s help, we can resolve Brexit.
The European elections were a sobering experience for the Tories. Their support fell to only 10 per cent of the vote and I already know of several large-scale Tory donors who switched to the Brexit Party overnight. Arguably, the Conservatives’ future is already in doubt. Suddenly, it is ‘do-or-die’ not just for Brexit, but for the Conservative Party as well.
Mr Johnson should realize that he is going to have to risk his longed-for position as PM to ensure Brexit is enacted properly. There is no

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EU About To Face 2 Realities

July 29, 2019

Hello EU. Meet Boris Johnson and his negotiating team. While doing so, think about recession.Vote Leave Reality

One of the most effective reshuffles ever?
– Quick– Thorough– Razor clear direction– Shows Boris can be serious,– & his ambition is not merely to be PM but actually to deliver Brexit
I disagree with the direction but reshuffles are usually butchered, not executed so well.
— Theo Bertram (@theobertram) July 25, 2019

Johnson Will Deliver Brexit
Eurointelligence has finally come around to my long-held four-point stance.
Boris Johnson is not bluffing.
He will deliver Brexit.
The EU would be wise to make a deal.
Germany and the Eurozone will be in a world of hurt if they don’t.
From Eurointelligence
Forget the cabinet

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Electric Car Major Headache

June 24, 2019

A trip from LA to Las Vegas and back takes 8 hours by a gas-powered car but 13 hours by an electric vehicle.The electric vehicle grand vision may flounder on something most drivers take for granted: a quick pit stop.The inconvenient truth of electric vehicles is they are terribly inconvenient to own and operate. Most cars need a charge after 200 to 250 miles traveled.Charging them requires finding a charging station, and then an open bay.
The New York Times reports L.A. to Vegas and Back by Electric Car: 8 Hours Driving; 5 More Plugged In.
The NYT author, Ivan Penn, drove a Chevrolet Bolt from LA to Las Vegas, a 540-mile round trip that many people make regularly.
Penn reports that in addition to eight hours on the road, he spent

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St Louis Fed Promotes Still More Free Money for Banks

May 22, 2019

St Louis Fed researchers concocted a scheme to pay banks still more free money, but this time hiding all of it.At the current rate of 2.35%, the Fed hands out about $33.58 billion in free money to the banks.Interest Rate on Excess Reserves
The two charts show the moving target.
Excess reserves peaked at $2.7 trillion in August of 2014 but the interest rate on excess reserves then was only 0.25%.
0.25% of $2.7 trillion is “only” $6.75 billion in free money at an annualized rate. At the current rate, banks take in over $33 billion in free money.
The peak annualized rate was probably in August of 2017 with the interest on excess reserves at 1.95% on $2.2 trillion. That’s free money to the tune of $42.9 billion at an annualized rate.
St. Louis Fed Proposal
Please

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Theresa May Will Not Stand Down

May 9, 2019

Like waving a flag in front of a bull, May taunts the 1922 Committee. They have to change the rules to get rid of her.The Tory party has rules. The key rule at the moment is that a leadership challenge to remove a Prime Minister can happen only once in 365 days. Theresa May survived a leadership challenge in December of 2018.The “men in gray suits” comment is a reference to the 1922 committee.Although 80% of Tory MPs want May out, it’s the 1922 Committee that sets the rules. Yesterday, Sir Graham Brady, head of the rules committee issued an ultimatum: Pick Your Resignation Date or We Will.The committee cannot pick a resignation date, but it can change the rules and hold a leadership challenge vote.
May Taunts the Committee
Today

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Hello Jerome Powell, We Have Questions

March 30, 2019

This is an open letter to Jerome Powell and the Fed. Dear Mr. Powell, In your March 8 speech on Normalization and the Road Ahead, you spoke of diversity, zero-bound interest rate problem, and the Fed’s path to normalization. You noted “Makeup strategies are probably the most prominent idea and deserve serious attention,” while simultaneously admitting …

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The Recycling Movement Fails

March 21, 2019

US Cities are abandoning recycling efforts because it’s too costly. And China no longer accepts even our sorted garbage.The Wall Street Journal reports Aluminum Makers Ditch Can Business.Used cans are piling up at scrapyards because U.S. aluminum companies are turning fewer of them into new metal, another indication of the economic challenges facing recycling.Arconic Inc. and other aluminum rollers are producing less sheet for beverage cans and more higher-margin, flat-rolled aluminum for automotive and industrial components. Prices for used aluminum cans in the U.S. have fallen about 30% since last summer. Old cans are less versatile than other scrap. The makers of airplane and car parts prefer not to use aluminum made from

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AOC’s ‘New Green Deal’ Is Stunningly Absurd

February 9, 2019

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) released her bill for a “Green New Deal”. It’s stunningly absurd.Today AOC released her New Green Deal Proposal. It’s a wish list of socialist and green ideas, most of which are obviously absurd to all but the most economically clueless persons. It has zero chance of passage and it’s nonbinding, but here are some of the key ideas.
Upgrade all existing buildings in the US
100% clean power
Support family farms
Universal access to healthy food
Zero-emission vehicle infrastructure
Remove greenhouse gasses form the atmosphere
Eliminate unfair competition
Affordable access to electricity
Create high-quality union jobs that pay prevailing wages
Guaranteeing a job with a family sustaining wage,

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Trump will ‘Absolutely’ Shut Down the Government

December 18, 2018

Miller, on verge of frothing at mouth over immigration, says Trump will “absolutely” shut down the government over Christmas unless he gets funding for the border wall. pic.twitter.com/gbNlNKSD7v
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) December 16, 2018

What to Expect
Here’s what to expect in a Government Shutdown.
The Postal Service is an independent agency, so it won’t be affected in any government shutdown.
Air-traffic controllers still will be on the job and customs and border agents will continue working at border crossings.
Amtrak, a government-owned corporation, also will operate as usual.
Those who want to go to national parks and federally operated museums could find popular places closed or hours curtailed.
The national zoos may close but the zoo’s animal caretakers

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Kavanaugh’s Detailed 1982 Calendar

September 26, 2018

Every day, evidence mounts that Ford’s story is blatantly false. Perhaps she believes it, but that doesn’t make it true.Please consider Kavanaugh Will Use 1982 Calendar to Deny Sex Assault Claims.
Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh will turn over calendars to the Senate Judiciary Committee from 1982 that do not show him attending a high school party where Christine Blasey Ford said he sexually attacked her, according to a report on Sunday.
The calendars show that Kavanaugh, then a teenager, was out of town during most of that summer at the beach or with his parents, the New York Times reported, citing someone working on his confirmation hearings.
While at home in suburban Maryland, Kavanaugh’s calendar listed basketball games,

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Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test

September 21, 2018

Before looking at the “Dilbert” method, please consider USA Today’s editorial Kavanaugh, too? Christine Blasey Ford’s account is missing key details of assault by Penny Nance.
Two decades ago, while pregnant with my first child, I was running in Northern Virginia when I was attacked by a man much larger and stronger than myself. I survived the attempted rape — but I’ll never forget it, in fact I remember every detail all these years later.
Twenty years after Bill Clinton — then the attorney general and highest ranking law enforcement officer in the state of Arkansas — allegedly raped Juanita Broaddrick, she remembered every detail as she told NBC’s Lisa Myers during a prime time interview. She even remembered Clinton biting her

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Mass Hysteria?

July 18, 2018

The mass hysteria following Trump’s meeting with Putin is likely to last for days. Most are outraged. Few see the light.My article Congratulations to President Trump for an Excellent Summit with Putin spawned numerous some I could not tell if they were sarcastic or not.For example, reader Brian stated ” There is zero doubt now that Putin stole the election from Hillary. So much so that she MUST be given the nomination again in 2020. All potential challengers must step aside. To refuse her the 2020 nomination would be evidence of traitorous activities with Putin.”‘I congratulated Brian for brilliant sarcasm but he piled on. It now seems he was serious.
Mainstream media, the Left an the Right were in general condemnation.
Numerous cries of treason emerged from the

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Baloney

July 6, 2018

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany leaving a meeting of the Christian Democratic Union in Berlin early Monday. “We share a common goal in migration policy,” the party said in a statement. “We want to order, control and limit migration to Germany.”Say what?When did this become Germany’s goal? And what about refugee camps in Africa, with no African nation agreeing?The New York Times reports Merkel, to Survive, Agrees to Border Camps for Migrants.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who staked her legacy on welcoming hundreds of thousands of migrants into Germany, agreed on Monday to build border camps for asylum seekers and to tighten the border with Austria in a political deal to save her government.
Although the move to appease the

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Build a Wall, Make Africa Pay for It

June 30, 2018

The EU meets today in a futile attempt to solve a near impossible problem. A page from Trump’s playbook might help.Given the incessant bickering between EU countries over migration issues, it’s time to think outside the box. Here is the 5-Point Dilemma.
Germany Merkel’s CDU: Seek a consensus solution under existing EU rules.
Germany Seehofer’s CSU: Turn them back at the border (i.e. Send them back to Italy through Austria)
Italy Five Star and the League: Change the “Dublin Rules” which state migrants must apply for asylum in the first country in which they land. Italy wants to distribute existing migrants throughout EU. It also supports “safe areas” in Africa.
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia: All refuse new migrants
Austria: Austria’s Prime Minister, Sebastian

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Get Ready To Pack Your Bags

June 7, 2018

Things are about to heat up in the EU. Italy’s ministers threaten the EU/EMU with mass deportations.Italy’s new leaders tell 500,000 immigrants: Pack Your Bags.
The right-wing Lega party, which formed a coalition government with Five-Star Movement (M5S) last week, is the driving force behind anti-immigration rhetoric and it is looking to fulfil a pledge to deport as many as 500,000 illegal migrants.
Lega leader Matteo Salvini — who is now Italy’s deputy prime minister and interior minister — reiterated the government’s aim to deport illegal migrants on a visit to Sicily last weekend.
On Saturday, speaking at a rally in northern Italy, Salvini had told illegal migrants “get ready to pack your bags.”
On Sunday, Salvini said the only way

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Is College Worth the Cost?

April 18, 2018

New schools are popping up. Some offer one year programs but no college degree. Good idea?Ben Carlson at Wealth of Common Sense is irked by the question: Is College Worth the Cost?
Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian gave some advice to young people in a recent interview with the New York Times:
“Do you really need to go to college? There is a huge student loan debt problem in this country. I think there’s going to need to be a drastic change in how these universities work. And I also think we’ve lambasted the trades for way too long. You can make six figures as a welder.”
These kinds of statements irk me, especially when they come from rich entrepreneurs. This line of thinking reeks of survivorship bias.
Successful entrepreneurs must

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Mariano Rajoy, You are a Disgrace To Spain

October 3, 2017

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, the man who said there would not be a vote, now has to face the facts: 90% Voted for Independence.

📊 Resultats del Referèndum de #1OCT pic.twitter.com/2jGFL1xLz1
— Govern. Generalitat (@govern) October 1, 2017

90% of the 2.26 million Catalans who voted on Sunday voted in favour of independence, according to preliminary results released by the region’s government. The region has 5.3 million voters. Officials said 770,000 votes were lost due to disruption which resulted in polling stations being raided by Spanish police.
Carles Puigdemont, Catalan’s leader, announced in a televised statement that the region had earned the right to become an independent state and that results would be passed the region’s parliament in the coming days.

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Equifax Is Not Your Friend

September 19, 2017

The Equifax security breach scandal keeps growing and growing. Their handling of the data breach that affected as many as 143 million accounts has been horrendous.
Executives dumped their shares before reporting the stolen data. Following the breach, their website did not function properly, people got signed up for programs they did not want or need, and customer service has been dismal all around.Equifax is Not Your Friend
InTheseTimes reports The Equifax Hacking Scandal Is a Reminder That Credit-Reporting Agencies Are Not Our Friends.
Last week, Equifax—one of the country’s three major credit-reporting agencies alongside Experian and Transunion—revealed that its security apparatus had been breached. “Hackers” obtained private financial

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India Fears Run on Banks

December 31, 2016

Indian banks are fearful of running out of cash as lines queue up to withdraw money.
Bankers say they cannot cope with any sudden increase in demand, and warn against lifting cash withdrawal limits.

A decision by New Delhi on November 8 to scrap all large-denomination banknotes overnight removed 86 per cent of India’s currency from circulation. In an effort to prevent banks running out of cash, the finance ministry then imposed strict limits on the amount of new notes that could be withdrawn. Customers can currently withdraw just Rs2,500 from an ATM per day — equivalent to $37 — or Rs24,000 over the counter per week.
Myths, Misunderstandings and Outright lies about owning Gold. Are you at risk?
“If the government lifts the limits on Friday and there is a sudden rush,

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German Media Aid Merkel

December 23, 2016

German media is solidly behind Angela Merkel as the US media was behind Hillary Clinton. German reporting of the recent terrorist truck incident was in a single word “pathetic”.
Thanks to chancellor Merkel, it’s politically incorrect to presume refugees are a problem. Worse yet, the media cooperates.
Culture of Denial
The following via email from Eurointelligence.
Why are the most advertised Gold and Silver coins NOT the best way to invest?
The discussion about the terror attack in Berlin has turned political very quickly, with some commentators now wondering openly whether this might cost Angela Merkel the elections.
This is at its most fundamental a story about denial. The German establishment, and their friends in the media, are in denial that Merkel’s

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