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Daily Digest 9/21 – Young People Take To The Streets For Climate, Nature ‘Unraveling’ as N. America Loses 3B Birds Since 1970

2 days ago

Economy

Upbeat data suggest U.S. economy still on moderate growth path (Thomas R.)
The U.S. central bank cut rates in July for the first time since 2008. The Fed offered mixed signals on further monetary policy easing. Data, including retail sales, so far in the third quarter suggest the economy is growing close to the April-June quarter’s 2.0% annualized rate.

Financial markets have been flagging a recession. The Atlanta Fed is estimating gross domestic product rising at a 1.9% pace this quarter.

Beijing Daxing International Airport: China’s new mega-airport ready to open (Sparky1)
The multibillion-dollar Daxing, designed by the late architect Zaha Hadid and her Chinese partners, is built for the future, boasting four runways and a terminal the size of 97 soccer pitches upon opening

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Off The Cuff: Understanding The Trouble With Repo Rates

3 days ago

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:
What is the repo rate?
Why did the rate suddenly skyrocket?
Why a liquidity crisis is so dangerous
Will the Fed really start up QE again?
Something completely unexpected happened this week. Banks started running out of cash reserves. As a result, the cost for them to borrow money overnight — the repo rate — suddenly skyrocketed, taking the banking system and the Federal Reserve by surprise.
While the situation appears under control for now, it is not a good sign nor a healthy one for the financial system.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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The post Off

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Resilient Relocation

3 days ago

When relocation makes sense (and when it doesn’t)
Developing the vision & plan for your relocation destination
Creating community
Which incentives will drive success
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Importance Of A Resilient Life, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Two weeks ago, I publicly revealed my plans to create a resilient living community. One that will offer me and other like-minded folks a beautiful place to live and positive cash flows.
In good times, it can be used as a home, as a vacation destination, or simply a passive real estate investment. And if times get bad, it’s a fully-resilient retreat, ready to shelter you and your loved ones.
The response to my announcement overwhelmed me. It clearly touched a nerve with thousands of people

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The Importance Of A Resilient Life

3 days ago

My business partner Adam and I recently met with a successful business owner whose career began on Wall Street. The kind of guy who should be rooting for the system, because it has treated him well.
Instead, he was quite nervous about the sustainability of the status quo. “Starting in August,” he said, “Maybe it was the Amazon catching fire, maybe it was the negative interest rates – I don’t know for certain what the trigger was – but something has snapped.”
I agree. Because I feel it, too.
As do so many others. And not just those who regularly read PeakProsperity.com. Increasingly, even ‘mainstream’ voices are stating to report a profound sense that something really isn’t right. That — from the economy to geopolitics to the natural world — things are swiftly worsening.
Public perception

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Daily Digest 9/20 – Good News Friday: More Supporting Nonprofit News Sites, UC To Dump Fossil Fuel Investments

3 days ago

This is Good News Friday, where we find some good economic, energy, and environmental news and share it with PP readers. Please send any positive news to [email protected] with subject header “Good News Friday.” We will save and post weekly. Enjoy!
Economy

Report: More people are supporting nonprofit news sites (Sparky1)
Most of her calls a few years ago used to be from journalists looking for work, Cross said. Now she’s hearing from more business people, concerned citizens and even politicians wondering what can be done to support journalism.
While the percentage of overall foundation giving may be going down, the amount of money being put in is still increasing, particularly for supporting journalism on specific issues like the environment and social justice, the report said.

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Ben Hunt: Prepare To Get Burned

4 days ago

History teaches us that there is no free lunch, reminds Dr. Ben Hunt, publisher of EpsilonTheory.com.
And science informs us that even the most simple systems become nearly impossible to predict or control with 100% precision as time and variables change.
But our society today is ignoring these lessons. It’s betting that the increasingly excessive distortions required to keep the status quo continuing will succeed, and come at no cost.
That’s a losing bet, warns Hunt:

Society burns itself on a really hot stove every three or four generations.
I think we’re at that point where the Millennials coming of age who are having to wrestle with what the Baby Boomers have done to the world. They’re going to end up burning themselves on this hot stove. The hot stove of looking to government as the

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Daily Digest 9/19 – U.S. Says Saudi Oil Site Attack Was ‘Act Of War,’ The Global Expansion of AI Surveillance

4 days ago

Economy

FedEx CEO: ‘Whistling past the graveyard’ on the U.S. consumer belies a broader slowdown (Thomas R.)
Smith’s remarks came on the heels of weaker-than-expected results out the gate for FedEx’s first quarter of the 2020 fiscal year. The shipping giant – which derives about one-third of its annual revenue from international sources – missed on both the top and bottom lines, and lowered its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance in part due to a “weakening global macro environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty.”

U.S. housing starts, building permits scale 12-year high (Sparky1)
Housing starts jumped 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.364 million units last month, the highest level since June 2007, the government said. Data for July

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Daily Digest 9/18 – Equifax To Sell More Utility & Phone Records, Oil Shock Hits Global Economy Already On Shaky Ground

5 days ago

Economy

Oil shock hits a global economy that’s already on shaky ground (Saxplayer00o1)
Following the release of fresh data for August, analysts at Societe Generale pointed out Monday that the industrial sector is “losing momentum at an alarmingly rapid pace,” and expressed concern that weakness could spill over into consumer spending and the services sector. Higher oil prices, which would come as the price of pork soars, are the last thing the country needs.

Repo Market Chaos Signals Fed May Be Losing Control of Rates (Saxplayer00o1)
One of the key U.S. borrowing markets saw a massive surge Monday, a sign the Federal Reserve is having trouble controlling short-term interest rates.

Amid the settlement of Treasury coupon auctions and the influx of quarterly corporate tax payments,

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Daily Digest 9/17 – Trump Officials Warn On Mortgage Finance, Why Have No Banking Executives Been Prosecuted?

6 days ago

Economy

Video: Trump has badly misread China’s hand (Don R.)
While most of the focus has been on traded goods Amstad says to get the full picture you also need to take into consideration the value of services and the profits earned by US companies operating in China. As he outlines in this short video Trump may have badly misread China’s hand.

One in Four of New York’s New Luxury Apartments Is Unsold (Thomas R.)
Moreover, a growing share of condos sold in recent years have been quietly re-listed as rentals by investors who bought them and are reluctant to put them back on the market. Of the 12,133 new condos sold between January 2013 and August 2019, 38 percent have appeared on StreetEasy as rentals.

The Fight for the Latino Vote in Florida (jdargis)
Only a small percentage of the

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Daily Digest 9/16 – Saudi Oil Attack Roils Global Energy Markets, Medicaid’s Dark Secret

7 days ago

Economy

Dow Futures Retreat, Global Stocks Fall After Saudi Oil Attacks, Weak China Data (Thomas R.)
Oil prices surged the most since the 1991 Gulf War in early trading, before paring gains to between $5 and $6 a barrel, after drone attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais crude facilities in Saudia Arabia, which caused massive fires and shuttered nearly 5% of global production.

Attacks on Saudi oil facilities knock out half the kingdom’s supply (Sparky1)
The pre-dawn strikes follow earlier cross-border attacks on Saudi oil installations and on oil tankers in Gulf waters, but these were the most brazen yet, temporarily crippling much of the nation’s production capacity. Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest exporter, shipping more than 7 million barrels of oil to global destinations every day,

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Daily Digest 9/14 – The Rich Live Longer Than The Poor, CA Real Estate Boom Is Over – What Now?

9 days ago

Economy

Private Equity Tries to Protect Another Profit Center (edelinski)
Twenty-five states have passed laws with limited protection for patients from out-of-network bills, usually for emergency room or urgent-care services; 20 more states are considering legislation. But these laws do not cover self-insured employer plans, which can only be regulated by the federal government. These plans cover an estimated 61 percent of workers who have private insurance, up from 44 percent 20 years ago. That means Congress must step in to protect insured patients from unfair and unexpected medical charges.

Paris commuter chaos as metro workers strike over pension reform (Sparky1)
Unions want the strike, expected to be the largest since 2007 in Paris, to send a warning to Macron’s government as it

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Home Prices: Downhill From Here

10 days ago

The Growing Threat To Paper Assets
With negative interest rates metastasizing across the globe and central banks once again speaking in unison about resuming QE (a.k.a., massive money printing), we have a pretty good sense that we’re approaching the limits of current monetary policy.
After a decade of injecting tens of $trillions of ‘thin air money’ into the world economy, what do the central planners have to show for it?
Not a return to robust economic growth, which was the outcome sold to us.
Not a “normalization” of these “short term” emergency measures, which was also promised.
Instead, we’ve had rampant inflation in the prices of all the assets that the elites own. For everyone else, the cost of living has exploded. But wages have been stagnant. Savers have been starved of return.

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Daily Digest 9/13 – Good News Friday: CA Bans Private Prisons, Zambia’s Accidental Tomato Farmer

10 days ago

Economy

Post-Gazette newsroom donates Pulitzer monetary award to Tree of Life congregation (RS)
The newspaper was honored with a Pulitzer for its coverage of the shooting deaths of 11 people and the wounding of seven others Oct. 27 at the Tree of Life Congregation in Squirrel Hill. The judges called the staff’s work “immersive, compassionate coverage … that captured the anguish and resilience of a community thrust into grief.”

But what to do with that $15,000? Staffers felt the horrendous events of that day made it difficult to fully savor one of the country’s highest honors for journalistic achievement. And splitting the monetary award among those who had participated in the news coverage just didn’t seem right.

California bans private prisons – including Ice detention centers (RS)

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Binyamin Appelbaum: The Problem With Modern Economics

11 days ago

Why do we have the economic policies we do today?
These policies drive decision-making on Capitol Hill, corporate boardrooms, and on Wall Street. But who made them, why, and how did they come about? And how well are they serving us?
Binyamin Appelbaum has made these questions the focus of his new book The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets and the Fracture of Society, which shines a bright light on the rise of modern Economics and its dominating influence on society.
From anti-trust law to central banking, Appelbaum explains how Economics has evolved (metastasized?) into its current form, where the solutions it now offers may be no better (and possibly substantially worse) than the problems it’s designed to address:

We are at a real fork in the road and there is a very

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Daily Digest 9/12 – Unfurling The Waste Problem Caused By Wind Energy, Is The End Of Democracy Coming?

11 days ago

Economy

American Businesses Say China’s Slowdown Is a Greater Threat Than the Trade War (Thomas R.)
wnshifting in China as its economy slows and trade tensions with the U.S. persist, according to a new survey that highlights softening revenue, reduced investment and job cutbacks.

The annual survey, released on Wednesday by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, showed that 51% of the business lobby’s responding members said U.S. and Chinese tariffs had hurt revenue.

Watch the chaos unfold as the UK’s parliament is suspended (Sparky1)
One of the longest sessions in the history of the British Parliament ended in pandemonium, with opposition lawmakers furious at the five-week suspension.

Families Go Deep in Debt to Stay in the Middle Class (Adam)
Cars, college, houses and

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Daily Digest 9/11 – Real U.S. Debt Levels Could Be 2,000% Of Economy, Chicago’s Deficit Heralds U.S. Pensions Crisis

12 days ago

Economy

‘Gold is the way to go’ as interest rates fall, says Mark Mobius (Saxplayer00o1)
“They are certainly going to try to weaken the dollar against other currencies and of course, it’s a race to the bottom. Because, as soon as they do that, other currencies will also weaken,” said Mobius.

“People are going to finally realize that you got to have gold, because all the currencies will be losing value,” he added.

China Has Added Nearly 100 Tons of Gold to Its Reserves (Saxplayer00o1)
Bullion is near a six-year high as central banks including the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as signs of a slowdown mount amid the U.S.-China trade war. Central-bank purchases have been another key support for prices as authorities from China to Russia accumulate significant quantities of

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Off The Cuff: Declining Energy Consumption Shows Recession Is At The Doorstep

13 days ago

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:
Understanding The Importance Of Crack Spreads
Diesel Consumption Is Down 500,000 Barrels/Day Since January
The Shale Oil Reckoning Is Approaching
Key Slides From Art
Petroleum expert Art Berman explains how crack spreads (the difference between what refiners pay for crude oil and the price they receive for their refined product) and oil demand volumes are indicating the global economy is slowing markedly. Economies need energy to function. Less energy consumed = lower growth and output.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Or Sign In with your enrolled account.

The post Off The Cuff: Declining

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Daily Digest 9/10 – ‘Gold Is The Way To Go’ As Interest Rates Fall, Big Tech Backlash Kicks Into Gear

13 days ago

Economy

Deficit surpasses $1 trillion: CBO (Sparky1)
While mandatory spending such as Social Security and Medicare drive the deficit, it has shot up under President Trump’s watch following the GOP tax cut bill and a series of bipartisan agreements to raise spending on both defense and domestic priorities.

The CBO has called the nation’s fiscal path “unsustainable,” noting that payments on interest alone were on track to overtake both defense and domestic spending by 2046.

The Trump administration’s new plan to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, explained (Thomas R.)
This raises the big picture question of why bother to go through privatization at all if the goal is mostly to keep things the same. Hanging over that question is the struggle of a handful of hedge fund managers

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Daily Digest 9/9 – How a Manhattan Scion Built a Rural Empire, Why Economic Collapse Will Precede Climate Collapse

14 days ago

Economy

Biggest Inflation in the History of History Coming – Bill Holter (pinecarr)
Holter says a failure to deliver is not a maybe but a sure thing. Holter says, “Whether it is this year or the first few months of next year, it doesn’t matter. It is going to happen. I can basically guarantee there is going to be a failure to deliver, and that failure to deliver is going to unmask and scare the crap out of the entire fractional reserve banking system and the fractional reserve commodity system. The whole thing is going to come down in a panic because somebody gets a failure to deliver. If you listen to what Trump is saying, he wants a lower dollar. How much of a lower dollar does he want? He’s talking about debasing the currency to make the debt payable. That is the most palatable way

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Daily Digest 9/8 – More Than 10,000 Layoffs in August, The World Economy in One Chart

15 days ago

Economy

The $86 Trillion World Economy in One Chart (Thomas R.)
It should be noted that the diagram uses nominal GDP to measure economic output, which is different than using GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). The data in the diagram and table below come from the World Bank’s latest update, published in July 2019.

Lagarde Says `Highly Accommodative Policy’ Is Warranted by ECB (Sparky1)
Incoming European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pledged to act with “agility” against what she described as inflation that is persistently too low, signaling that she intends to follow Mario Draghi’s example in keep monetary policy exceptionally loose. Lagarde, who ran the International Monetary Fund for the past eight years and is scheduled to take over at the ECB on Nov. 1,

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VIDEO: Rick Rule, Chris Martenson & Brien Lundin On Investing In Gold Miners

16 days ago

The prospects for further gold and silver price appreciation has rarely looked this strong.
Despite the nice jump in price gold, silver and the mining stocks have enjoyed so far this year, we’re still in the early innings (perhaps still the first!) of this new precious metals bull market. If history is any guide, the real action still lies ahead.
In fact, if the early 2000s bull run is any guide the average gold stock will multiply four times from current levels — and the better ones could go up 10 times or more.
This week, we aired a live webinar with several of the top experts on resource investing focused on how to position for (and not screw up!) the tremendous price appreciation wave that likely lies ahead for

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ALERT: Time To Relocate

17 days ago

Why it’s far better to be a year early than a date late when preparing for crisis
Why I’m issue a rare Alert
What’s causing me to release this Alert now
My relocation criteria
If you have not yet read Part 1: It’s The Pace Of Change That Kills You, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
As we say often here at Peak Prosperity: When it comes to preparing for crisis, it’s far better to be a year early than a day late.
I’m perfectly willing to be early on timing, as long as I get the direction right.
For example, I invested heavily in gold and silver beginning in 2001.  My first purchases of gold were at $300/oz.  Silver at $4.53/oz.
I was early. Prices didn’t really start taking off until 2006.
The bulk of these purchases happened after the sale of my house in

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It’s The Pace Of Change That Kills You

17 days ago

A treasured member of my family is in the process of dying right now.  She has lived a full, rich life; but her passing is a sad affair for us.
I’ve spent a lot of time recently with hospice workers. I’ve learned that they’re often asked by their patients, “How much time do I have left?”
While sometimes loathe to offer an answer, hospice staff can predict the timing of the end pretty accurately.
They do so by measuring by the changes they see. Or, more accurately, the pace of change in those changes.
Could a patient pick a book up off the floor in June, but not in July?  If not, then their remaining time is likely to be measured in months.
Could they raise themselves out of a chair last week but not today?  If not, then it may be only weeks until the end.
Are they losing function every

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Daily Digest 9/6 – Good News Friday: Our Shared Digital Future, Ireland To Plant 440m Trees To Battle Climate Change

17 days ago

This is Good News Friday, where we find some good economic, energy, and environmental news and share it with PP readers. Please send any positive news to [email protected] with subject header “Good News Friday.” We will save and post weekly. Enjoy!
Economy

Optimists For The Win: Finding The Bright Side Might Help You Live Longer (jdargis)
Researchers already knew from previous work that optimistic individuals tend to have a reduced risk of depression, heart disease and other chronic diseases. But might optimism also be linked to exceptional longevity? Lee looked at medical records from two long term research studies — one involving female nurses and the other involving men, mostly veterans.

The unofficial symbol of partying might soon find a sustainable replacement (Thomas R.)

Read More »

VIDEO: How To Ride The Gold (& Silver) Bull

18 days ago

The prospects for further gold and silver price appreciation has rarely looked this strong.
Despite the nice jump in price gold, silver and the mining stocks have enjoyed so far this year, we’re still in the early innings (perhaps still the first!) of this new precious metals bull market. If history is any guide, the real action still lies ahead.
In fact, if the early 2000s bull run is any guide the average gold stock will multiply four times from current levels — and the better ones could go up 10 times or more.
Yesterday, we aired a live webinar with several of the top experts on resource investing focused on how to position for (and not screw up!) the tremendous price appreciation wave that likely lies ahead for this sector.
It’s featured faculty were Rick Rule, president & CEO of

Read More »

Daily Digest 9/5 -‘Only A Matter Of Time’ Before Negative Rates Hit U.S., Modern Survivalist Currency Crisis Ongoing

18 days ago

Economy

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ says he has found the next market bubble (Adam)
“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,” Burry said. “This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”

Alan Greenspan says it’s ‘only a matter of time’ before negative rates spread to the US (Sparky1)
There are currently more than $16 trillion in negative-yielding debt instruments around the world as central banks try to ease monetary conditions to sustain the global economy. The 10-year sovereign bonds in Belgium, Germany, France and

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Daily Digest 9/4 – The Last Act of the Human Comedy, What Would It Take To Pay Off IL’s Debt?

19 days ago

Economy

Down, down they go: Emerging central banks deliver most rate cuts in a decade (Saxplayer00o1)
Interest rate moves by central banks across a group of 37 developing economies showed a net fourteen rate cuts last month – the largest number since policy makers ramped up measures to kickstart economic growth in the wake of the financial crisis.

What would it take to pay off Illinois’ debt? (Saxplayer00o1)
That leaves the state with $194.2 billion in unfunded liability. With an estimated state population of 12.7 million people, it would cost each person roughly $15,291 to pay off the state’s unfunded liabilities.

Positive yields ahoy! Investors hoover up European junk bond issues (Saxplayer00o1)
With much of the European bond market now in negative-yielding territory,

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Daily Digest 9/3 – Stocks Fall On Trade War Jitters, How The Prison Economy Works

20 days ago

Economy

Dow slides 300 points after new US-China trade tariffs take effect (Thomas R.)
It’s “every country for themselves. The month of September begins with global uncertainty perhaps at its recent highs,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. “September will very likely set the tone for the remainder of this year and perhaps then some.”

Stocks fall on trade war jitters, pound slides on Brexit (Sparky1)
ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude lost $1 cents to $54.10 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.61 on Monday to close at $55.10. Brent crude, used to price international oils, retreated 86 cent to $57.80 per barrel in London. It sank 69 cents the previous session to $58.66.

The World’s Factories Are

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Daily Digest 9/2 – China’s Space Dream Is America’s Nightmare, Is it Cynical to Believe the System is Corrupt?

21 days ago

Economy

China’s factory activity shrinks for fourth month as trade woes deepen (Thomas R.)
Persistent weakness in China’s vast manufacturing sector could fuel expectations that Beijing needs to roll out stimulus more quickly, and more aggressively, to weather the biggest downturn in decades.

Prime minister says Pakistan will respond if India attacks (Sparky1)
India on Thursday said it has information that Pakistan is trying to infiltrate “terrorists” into the country. Pakistan’s army spokesman, Maj. Gen. Ghafoor, rejected the Indian claims, saying Pakistan was a responsible state and “we would be insane to allow infiltration” across the Line of Control that divides the countries in Kashmir.

Here’s a list of recession signals that are flashing red (Adam)
Data is coming at investors

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Daily Digest 8/31 – The Rich Aren’t Spending, Great Barrier Reef Health Downgraded To “Very Poor”

23 days ago

Economy

New recession warning: The rich aren’t spending (Adam)
Luxury real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis, with pricey markets like Manhattan seeing six straight quarters of sales declines. According to Redfin, sales of homes priced at $1.5 million or more fell 5% in the U.S. in the second quarter. Unsold mansions and penthouses are piling up across the country, especially in ritzy resort towns, with a nearly three-year supply of luxury listings in Aspen, Colorado, and the Hamptons in New York.

U.S. Yield Curve Steepens as Mnuchin Considers Longer-Term Bonds (Thomas R.)
“There was no need for Mnuchin to make remarks that could prompt selling of Treasuries,” said Hidehiro Joke, a bond strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “He might have tried to lift

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