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Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear

12 hours ago

The world has been fighting covid-19 long enough that we are beginning to arrive at some constructive conclusions:

Part of the intense infectiousness of this virus is due to its long asymptomatic phase, where hosts feel fine but are shedding contagious particles. Increased testing is now showing that the majority of folks testing positive don’t realize they’re sick.
Research is showing that the recommended social distance of two meters (6.8 feet) is inadequate to protect against airborne particles. Four times that amount is more likely — reinforcing the effectiveness of both social isolating tactics (like sheltering at home) and wearing masks.
Peak Prosperity has been loudly banging the #Masks4ALL drum of late, and every day more studies emerge showing it’s one of the cheapest and most

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A Simple Way To Combat Coronavirus: Everyone Should Wear A Mask!

2 days ago

It’s amazing that people are still being chided for taking steps to protect themselves from the coronavirus, when anyone with eyes can see that the spread of the disease is fast overwhelming authorities’ ability to deal with it.
Regular people are being told not only that they don’t need masks, but that “masks don’t work”.
Hospital workers are dangerously short on PPE and critical equipment like respirators.
Nurses who have brought in their own masks to wear have been threatened with getting fired for doing so.
Why are we fighting smart prudent steps when we all share the common goal of minimizing covid-19’s impact on society?
Why are we suppressing one of the single simplest, cheapest and most effective tactics we have in the war against this pandemic? We should be encouraging EVERYONE

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Daily Digest 3/28 – Governors Tell Outsiders To Stay Away, Virus Makes Water Shortages Everyone’s Problem

2 days ago

Economy

Governors Tell Outsiders From ‘Hot Zone’ to Stay Away as Virus Divides States (Sparky1)
Florida has a message for New Yorkers: Please don’t visit. And if you do, prepare to sit in quarantine or risk jail. Hawaii, which also thrives on tourism, is asking visitors to stay away for a month. And Alaska is requiring a 14-day quarantine for anyone entering from, as Alaskans put it, Outside.

Coronavirus: Why we do what we’re told when our society is shut down (Downunder Bound)
“The history of public health messaging is largely one of serial frustration,” University of Otago behavioural economist Nathan Berg said, “Every serious attempt to do before-after comparisons, it’s almost always an underwhelming, disappointing result.”

“Public health economists and scholars are well aware

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REPLAY VIDEO: Coronavirus/Market-Mayhem Q&A Webinar #4

2 days ago

Here’s the replay video of Friday’s “Ask Anything” Coronavirus/Market-Meltdown Q&A webinar #3.
Why is this restricted to Peak Prosperity’s premium subscribers? Two main reasons:
One — we expect a number of our answers to be our ‘best guesses’ given the incomplete data available. We don’t feel it appropriate to put that kind of speculation out into the public domain.
And Two — one of the many benefits of premium membership is closer access to the experts on this site.
If you’re not yet a premium member but would like becoming one and watch the webinar, click here to subscribe.
And if you choose not to enroll, that’s completely fine. We’ll still continue producing our free daily videos/etc for as long as these twin crises remain fluid.
cheers,
Adam & Chris

Or Sign In with your enrolled

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‘Ask Anything’ Coronavirus+Markets Live Q&A Webinar #3

3 days ago

Chris and I just discovered we have a free window of time tonight and will be holding another 1-hour live “ask anything” Q&A webinar this evening, Friday, Feb 27 at 7:30pmET/4:30pmPT.
Why is this event restricted to Peak Prosperity’s premium subscribers? Two main reasons:
One — we expect a number of our answers to be our ‘best guesses’ given the incomplete data available. We don’t feel it appropriate to put that kind of speculation out into the public domain.
And Two — one of the many benefits of premium membership is closer access to the experts on this site.
If you’re not yet a premium member but would like becoming one and watch the webinar, click here to subscribe.
And if you choose not to enroll, that’s completely fine. We’ll still continue producing our free daily videos/etc for as

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Market Mayhem Update: Is It Safe To Re-Enter?

3 days ago

After last week’s continued meltdown, stocks rebounded sharply earlier this week, with Tuesday’s gains setting an all-time one-day record for both point and percentage gain:

Questions we’re now hearing from PP.com readers over the past few days include:
Given the announced QE and $2 trillion stimulus package, is the bottom now in?
With the news that physical supply of gold is “running out”, what does that mean for gold & silver prices? For the mining stocks?
What steps should investors like me be taking now?
To answer these questions, I just recorded another brief interview with the lead partners at New Harbor Financial, the financial advisor Peak Prosperity endorses.
While the S&P 500 remains down -25% since the February highs, New Harbor’s general portfolio is up over the same period.

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Daily Digest 3/27 – Good News Friday: The Virus Can Be Stopped, Why Germany’s Death Rate Is Far Lower Than Other Countries

3 days ago

This is Good News Friday, where we find some good economic, energy, and environmental news and share it with PP readers. Please send any positive news to [email protected] with subject header “Good News Friday.” We will save and post weekly. Enjoy!
Economy

Why Germany’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries (jdargis)
Drosten, whose team of researchers developed the first COVID-19 test used in the public domain, said Germany’s low fatality rate is because of his country’s ability to test early and often. He estimates Germany has been testing around 120,000 people a week for COVID-19 during the monthlong period from late February to now, when it’s reached epidemic proportions in the country, the most extensive testing regimen in the world.

Epidemiologist Behind

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Coronavirus: The High Cost Of Being Wrong

3 days ago

Picking up from yesterday’s video rebutting the latest media campaign of “It’s not going to be that bad” opinion pieces from ‘experts’, Chris investigates the cost of being wrong in these predictions.
This is important because government and health care response policies are being influenced by these experts. If we pick the wrong policies, millions of lives and trillions in wealth are at stake.
Chris walks through the two main competing theories on the pandemic’s projected impact and highlights the merits and shortcomings of each.
In his opinion, the logic underlying one is much stronger than the other.
In many very real ways, our destiny is tied to the path we choose. Here’s hoping we choose wisely.

And if you haven’t read it already, read our Coronavirus Home Lockdown Survival Guide.

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Daily Digest 3/26 – Ending Social Distancing Will Lead To More Deaths, That Discomfort You’re Feeling Is Grief

4 days ago

Economy

Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients (Jade M.)
The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.

A Hard Look at the Remaining Hospital Capacity across America (thc0655)
Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said in a television interview with the city’s CBS affiliate Tuesday afternoon that the city’s hospitals are at capacity. But I notice this interview is not the lead story on the affiliate’s website, nor is that news anywhere in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution as of this writing.

How we know ending social distancing

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If You Die From The Coronavirus, What Will Happen To Your Assets?

4 days ago

This is an update to Peak Prosperity’s report on estate planning, which the coronavirus pandemic has suddenly and sadly made very relevant. Everyone with a family should take the time to read this.

Millions of us are now under home lockdown with little to do but watch the global covid-19 infection total continue to rise exponentially, as well as the deaths resulting from it.
It’s reported that 22,000+ have died so far. But the models show that soon, within a month or so, the death toll will be in the millions.
In the US, the virus’ spread is happening at such a swift rate that more and more people now know somebody who’s sick from it. I personally know two people who currently have it, plus a family that contracted it in January during a trip to Asia and has (thankfully) recovered.
If

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Coronavirus: Listening To (And Rebutting) The Critics

4 days ago

All through February and into early March, the media was awash with headlines that scoffed “Don’t worry — it’s just the flu”.
While most of those news outlets have pivoted and are now more likely to print sensationally fearful articles (the same who accused our data driven approach as “fear mongering” just weeks ago), we’re seeing a new campaign now of opinion pieces by credentialed ‘experts’ claiming the virus may not be as bad as initially expected.
In today’s video, Chris goes through a number of these recent articles and addresses them point by point:

As empirically-driven thinkers, at PeakProsperity.com we don’t shy away from a challenge to our conclusions. We’re of the mind that the best facts should win, and if the data changes, our analysis will change with it.
But Chris doesn’t

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The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Forcing Leaders To Decide: Save Lives Or The Economy?

5 days ago

Governments around the world are struggling to answer: What’s the bigger priority, saving lives or the economy?
Lots of strong opinions on both sides and not lot a lot of agreement (yet).
China-style lockdowns are hard for most leaders to swallow, as they result in gut-wrentching economic losses, mass job layoffs, and supply shortages.
But keeping people at work or returning them too soon risks higher infection rates, likely overwhelming the health care system for *everyone*, likely resulting in a lot more avoidable deaths.
No matter the path chosen, reducing the rate of spread of the pandemic is something that benefits everyone.
In today’s video, Chris spends time highlighting a number of personal behaviors, treatment programs, and national policies that show promise on this front.

We

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Daily Digest 3/25 – America Is Shutting Down, Grocery Stores Are the Coronavirus Tipping Point

5 days ago

Economy

Senate, White House reach $2 trillion stimulus deal to blunt coronavirus fallout (Sparky1)
The agreement capped five straight days of intensive negotiations that occasionally descended into partisan warfare as the nation’s economy reeled from the deadly pandemic, with schools and businesses closed, mass layoffs slamming the workforce and tens of thousands falling ill.

America Is Shutting Down (Matthew S.)
Flattening the curve doesn’t stop the spread of the coronavirus, it only slows it. It buys us valuable time to deal with the sick and work on pharmaceutical interventions and, hopefully, a vaccine.

On the other hand, you have people arguing that this is an overreaction and no matter how bad the virus is, these aggressive mitigation strategies are not worth the cost to the

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Daily Digest 3/24 – Trump Considers Reopening Economy, Why Mass COVID-19 Testing Is Key To Stopping Spread

6 days ago

Economy

Trump Considers Reopening Economy, Over Health Experts’ Objections (Sparky1)
Relaxing those restrictions could significantly increase the death toll from the virus, public health officials warn. Many economists say there is no positive trade-off — resuming normal activity prematurely would only strain hospitals and result in even more deaths, while exacerbating a recession that has most likely already arrived.

The economic shutdown is causing damage that is only beginning to appear in official data. Morgan Stanley researchers said on Monday that they now expected the economy to shrink by an annualized rate of 30 percent in the second quarter of this year, and the unemployment rate to jump to nearly 13 percent. Both would be records, in modern economic statistics.

Keeping the

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Even The Young & Healthy Are Getting The Coronavirus

7 days ago

Covid-19’s exponential spread across the world continues unabated; except in China, where the rate of officially reported new cases has slowed dramatically.
At the same time, cases in India are on the rise.
Might India be the next big outbreak trouble-spot? Time will tell.
Meanwhile, this honey badger of a virus shows that it “just don’t care” who you are.
We are getting more reports of young & healthy people getting hit hard. Rich, famous, royal, powerful — it doesn’t matter, all socioeconomic strata are coming down with it:

We’re also seeing more reports that social distancing, PPE and good hygiene practices really do make a big difference — so keep up your efforts, folks!
At the end of today’s video, Chris mentions our book Prosper! and its relevance to the changed world we’re

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Daily Digest 3/23 – The 6 Conditions For A Market Bottom, What Calling in the National Guard Means

7 days ago

Economy

Doug Noland: There’s No New Bubble Coming To Save Us (CleanEnergyFan)
Let’s touch upon prospects for Bubble reflation. There was an abundance of positive spin coming out of the previous bust period. “If only the Fed hadn’t incompetently failed to bail out Lehman, crisis could have – should have – been avoided.” Reckless home lending caused the crisis, and regulators will never tolerate a replay. Prudent “macro-prudential” policies and an abundantly capitalized banking sector ensure stability. From the crisis experience, central bankers learned to move early and aggressively to nip market instability in the bud.

“Stay Defensive… For Now” – Goldman Lays Out The 6 Conditions For A Market Bottom (CleanEnergyFan)
Our latest global forecasts foresee a recession that is likely to

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Coronavirus: World Leaders Now In Panic Mode

8 days ago

As the coronavirus outbreak enters the BOOM! phase in a fast-increasing number of countries across the globe, world leaders are scrambling to implement tighter and tougher controls.
Sadly, most of these desperate official actions will be necessary but insufficient.
The time to adopt China’s heavy-handed tactics was weeks ago. At this point, the virus’ spread is assured; we can only play to slow its rate now.
Which we should. Heart-breaking videos from health care workers show the hard choices being made in overwhelmed hospitals, forced to decide who lives and who dies as each new patient enters the overflowing emergency rooms.
More of this is coming – a lot more – including truly gargantuation fiscal relief packages, in the coming weeks as we ride up, up, up the exponential curve of

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Daily Digest 3/21 – Staggering Rise in Jobless Claims This Week, The Hammer And The Dance

9 days ago

Economy

Coronavirus: The Hammer And The Dance (JK)
The UK has seen a similar set of measures: lots of recommendations, but very few mandates.

These two groups of countries illustrate the two extreme approaches to fight the coronavirus: mitigation and suppression. Let’s understand what they mean.

Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded (Sparky1)
Many of the potentially deadly consequences of a failure to address the shortcomings are now playing out in all-too-real fashion across the country. And it was hardly the first warning for the nation’s leaders. Three times over the past four years the U.S. government, across two administrations, had grappled in depth with what a pandemic would look like, identifying likely shortcomings and in some cases recommending specific

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Market Meltdown Update: Is It Over Yet?

10 days ago

The financial markets have continued falling this week, making this recent crash the fastest plunge into a bear market in history:

We’ve received a lot of questions from PP.com readers over the past few days:
Is the carnage almost over?
What’s going on with this week’s drop in gold, silver and the mining shares?
What should those who have lost a substantial percentage of their savings do now?
For those who were defensively positioned and avoided the plunge, is now the time to start looking at deploying ‘dry capital’?
To answer these questions, I just recorded another brief interview with the lead partners at New Harbor Financial, the financial advisor Peak Prosperity endorses.
While the S&P 500 has now fallen 30% since the February highs, New Harbor’s general portfolio is only down a

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Daily Digest 3/20 – Good News Friday: No New COVID Infections In China, ‘Caremongering’ In Canada

10 days ago

This is Good News Friday, where we find some good economic, energy, and environmental news and share it with PP readers. Please send any positive news to [email protected] with subject header “Good News Friday.” We will save and post weekly. Enjoy!
Economy

The coronavirus pandemic began in China. Today, it reported no new local infections for the first time (tmn)
The milestone will likely be held up as proof of the ongoing success of China’s sweeping, top-down efforts to control the virus, despite persistent allegations that local officials mishandled the initial outbreak. Just last month, mainland China was reporting thousands of new cases every day, and was considered the most high-risk infection area in the world.

As Alaska restaurants adapt to new restrictions, owners are

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Chloroquine: A Promising Coronavirus Treatment?

10 days ago

Finally some good news? Several drugs show promise for treating covid-19.
Chloroquine (and hydroxychloroquine), an anti-malarial drug, is in the news today, prominently mentioned during President Trump’s morning press conference.
Research does indeed indicate that chloroquine has ‘apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against covid-19 associated pneumonia’, and has shown to help patients recover more quickly from the coronavirus.
Other treatments — azithromycin, antiviral remdesivir, and Kevzara — are now thought to make a positive difference, too.

This encouraging news comes none too soon, as countries around the world are now in a race against time with covid-19.
Entering the hockey-stick BOOM! phase, cases are jumping dramatically and health care systems world-wide brace for the

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Coronavirus: The Home Lockdown Survival Guide

11 days ago

Lockdowns are rippling across the world this week, with an accelerating number of cities, counties — and entire countries — issuing mandatory ‘shelter in place’ orders.
Whether you saw this coming or not (and way too many didn’t), here we all are. Stuck at home for….how long? We don’t know yet.
A few weeks? A month? Two months?
It all depends on the degree and intensity of the spread of the covid-19 virus in our own communities. Local mileage will vary.
So, how are you going to make it through this prolonged period of house arrest? Without getting sick, going broke, or being driven crazy?
As the folks who have been updating you daily since January on the unfolding coronavirus outbreak, here’s our definitive Home Lockdown Survival Guide.
We’ve written this to be a comprehensive collection

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Daily Digest 3/19 – April Could Be Worst Month Ever For Oil; Truck Driver Shortage, Ill Farm Workers May Threaten Food Supply Chain

11 days ago

Economy

Layoffs intensify, leading to soaring unemployment claims as coronavirus closures continue (Sparky1)
Pennsylvania experienced more than 50,000 on Monday and more than that on Tuesday, according to a tally from economist Jacob Robbins and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Minnesota officials saw more than 31,000 applications on Monday and Tuesday, the Star Tribune reported. In New Jersey, 15,000 applications arrived on Monday, causing the state’s website to crash, local affiliate WHYY reported.

NYSE to temporarily close floor, move to electronic trading after positive coronavirus tests (Sparky1)
“We implemented a number a number of safety precautions over the past couple of weeks, and starting on Monday this week we started pre-emptive testing of employees and screening of anyone

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Coronavirus Lockdown! Now It Gets Tough

12 days ago

With millions now living under home lockdown (or as it’s more gently referred to, “mandatory sheltering in place”) the serious reality of the coronavirus’ impact is sinking in.
Confined to remaining in your home, squeezed in with family members, can be frustrating and stressful. Especially if you’re watching your savings vaporize in the markets on a daily basis.
On top of that, many households aren’t receiving income while under lockdown. And many of those still employed are increasingly fearful that the longer this persists, the more likely their job will be lost in the coming mass layoffs.
The key to preserving your happiness and sanity during this undetermined period of house arrest will be maintaining your emotional resilience, as well as healthy relationships with those living under

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Daily Digest 3/18 – How The Gov’t Stalled Coronavirus Testing, The Exponential Power of Now

12 days ago

Economy

COVID-19: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures (JK)
“We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”

New England Complex Systems Institute: “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…” (JK)
Their assumptions are equivalent to ergodicity, as they consider new infections

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New Studies Raise The Coronavirus Threat Factor

13 days ago

The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more nefarious we realize it is.
Most public efforts to are focused on detecting those with symptoms, like a fever. But new research shows that the majority of covid-19 carriers (50%-75%) are asymptomatic. So you’re much more likely to get infected by someone who looks and feels fine.
To date, it looked like only the elderly and immunocompromised were at risk of serious complications. Well, that assumption is changing. European doctors are reporting a concerning number of younger, healthy people getting sick, too.
Similarly, it was assumed that the virus didn’t thrive in heat and humidity. Hopes in the northern hemisphere have been pinned on the nearing arrival of Spring. Well, new data shows that this may be false hope.

And as government

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What’s Causing The Gold & Silver Sell-off?

13 days ago

Periodically, we invite notable outside experts to share their insights exclusively for the Peak Prosperity audience. Today we’ve asked our friends at GoldSilver.com for their latest thoughts on the recent sell-off in the precious metals. Jeff Clark, GoldSilver’s senior metals analyst, presents his conclusions below that the PMs are reacting just as they did at the start of the 2008 crisis. That evidence, combined with the announced massive (and growing) inflationary rescue efforts by the central banks, gives confidence that gold & silver will similarly head higher  — possible much higher — before long.

Most investors know that gold represents wealth. And that it can be one of the most effective hedges against economic and financial turmoil.
It sure doesn’t feel that way right now. Not

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Daily Digest 3/17 – The World Is Insolvent, Gig Economy Workers Are Our Newest First Responders

13 days ago

Economy

Will This Year’s Census Be the Last? (tmn)
Under the terms of the Constitution, everyone in the United States was to be counted, except “Indians not taxed” (a phrase that both excluded Native peoples from U.S. citizenship and served as a de-facto acknowledgment of the sovereignty of Native nations). Every person would be counted, and there were three kinds: “free persons”; persons “bound to service for a term of years”; and “all other persons,” the last a sorry euphemism for enslaved people, who were to be counted as three-fifths of a free person. It was a compromise between Northern delegates (who didn’t want to count them at all, to thwart the South from gaining additional seats in Congress) and Southern delegates (who wanted to count them, for the sake of those seats)—a

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Coronavirus: Public Panic & Market Carnage

14 days ago

The lockdowns predicted in yesterday’s video update are already starting to happen.
Italy, Spain, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Israel and a growing number of countries are locking down their borders and tightening restrictions on movement.
More and more US states & cities are banning public gatherings and forcing closure of non-essential businesses. Rumors of a coming national curfew circulated this morning.
Meanwhile, grocery and pharmacy shelves are being stripped bare . Even the slow-movers are now panicking.
A similar panic has gripped investors. The stock market is experiencing a historically vicious sell-off — after falling 24% by the end of last week, the Dow is down another 13%(!!) today.

So far, no matter what the Federal Reserve and world government’s have pledged, the market

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Daily Digest 3/16 – Putin Unleashes Strategic Hell on the U.S.; Stay Home, No Matter What Politicians Say

14 days ago

Economy

Hospitals Push Off Surgeries to Make Room for Coronavirus Patients (Sparky1)
“The less people we have to bring or move around our community, the better,” said Ann Prestipino, an executive and incident commander for Massachusetts General Hospital, which Monday will begin switching all outpatient visits to virtual care, where possible, and will postpone surgery that can be delayed, at the discretion of each service area. The hospital and its clinics typically handle one million outpatient visits annually, she said.

Why the homeless, ‘surviving the best way they can,’ are vulnerable to coronavirus (TS)
“People experiencing homelessness not only have a set of challenges that make it really hard to do what we ask – stay home when you are sick, wash your hands frequently, talk to

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