Friday , October 30 2020
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Articles by Schiff Gold

Peter Schiff: Sooner or Later Every Bubble Finds Its Pin

3 days ago

Stocks sold off Monday as markets fretted over the lack of progress on stimulus and a rise in COVID-19 cases. In his podcast, Peter talked about the sell-off and the political dynamics driving the markets right now. He also drove down to a question nobody seems to want to grapple with: why are the markets and the economy so dependent on and desperate for stimulus?The Dow was down 650 points on Monday. A 300 point rally off the interday low kept the carnage from being even worse. The Nasdaq fell 189 points and the S&P 500 lost 1.86%. It was the worst day on Wall Street since mid-September. Two factors drove stocks lower – the lack of progress on a stimulus deal and a surge in COVID-19 cases.The selloff could have been worse if it wasn’t for a big move out of recovery stocks into the

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Who Will Fix The National Debt? It Looks Like Nobody

4 days ago

The FY2020 budget deficit came in at $3.13 trillion. At some point, the US government will have to reckon with the debt and spending. But according to recent analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget, neither Trump nor Biden appear prepared to do so. In fact, its analysis shows Trump would only be slightly better than Biden when it comes to spending and debt.During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump promised to deal with the skyrocketing national debt. In fact, he said he could take care of it “fairly quickly.” But during his four years in office, he didn’t even pay lip-service to reining in spending, instead, approving bigger outlays for both military and domestic spending.Many will blame the coronavirus for the surging deficits. Pandemic-related spending

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Ranks of the Long-Term Unemployed Growing

4 days ago

The mainstream spin on unemployment is that things are improving. The unemployment rate is coming down. The number of weekly jobless claims recently fell below 800,000 for the first time since government lockdowns in response to the pandemic went into high gear last March. But there are some troubling signs that undercut this good-news narrative. The number of long-term unemployed workers is steadily rising.The ranks of the long-term unemployed – those out of work for 27 weeks or more – grew to 2.4 million in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That’s the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The last time we saw this kind of jump in long-term unemployment was during the Great Recession.Meanwhile, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26

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Where Are the Gold Bulls? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Oct. 23, 2020

7 days ago

Gold has been trading sideways for several weeks. But there are all kinds of reasons to be bullish on the yellow metal. So why isn’t the price of gold rising faster? Where are the gold bulls? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey tries to answer that question and discusses some of the reasons people should be buying gold.The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play.Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary.LISTEN[embedded content]You Can Also Listen on SoundCloud[embedded

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How Long Before This Time Bomb Blows Up?

8 days ago

When governments started locking down economies in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve sprung into action. The central bank immediately cut interest rates to zero and launched what we’ve called “QE infinity.” Since then, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet by nearly $3 trillion and increased the money supply at a record pace. Along the way, Powell and Company signaled they were surrendering to inflation, moving the inflation targeting goalposts to allow for the inevitable increases in consumer prices. Meanwhile, the federal government has run the national debt to over $27 trillion.The question is how long can this go on?How long will the Fed continue this extraordinary monetary policy? Or as economist Pavel Mordasov phrased it, “How long can the Fed keep this

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Rickards: Why Gold?

8 days ago

Why gold?In a recent article, Jim Rickards offers three reasons the biggest gains in gold prices are yet to come.We are currently in the midst of the third great gold bull market since President Richard Nixon severed the last ties between the dollar and gold.The first was 1971 to 1980 when the price of gold rose 2,200%. The second ran from 1999-2011 as gold rose 760%. The third gold bull market began in December of 2015 when gold bottomed at $1,050 after making a record high just above $1,900. Since then, gold has nearly doubled, pushing over $2,000 an ounce earlier this year.As Rickards notes, we’ve seen a healthy gain during this third bull market, but it is “small change” compared to the massive gains we saw during the first two bull runs.When it comes to markets, nothing moves in a

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Wave of Corporate Mergers Could Put More Americans Out of Work

9 days ago

Last week, we reported on the number of temporary layoffs that are turning into permanent job losses.  Now Goldman Sachs is projecting even more permanent job losses coming down the pike as a wave of mergers, acquisitions and corporate takeovers sweeps through the economy.Goldman Sachs Group president John Waldron warned that we’re going to see more big businesses doing better, but there will be more job losses along the way as large corporations look to consolidate smaller companies.You are going to see a fairly sizable amount of large-cap M&A coming with stronger, healthier companies being the acquirer and taking advantage of weaknesses in their industry or elsewhere.”The Fed’s extraordinarily loose monetary policy coupled with federal government intervention will help facilitate

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Central Bank Digital Currencies: Another Front in the War on Cash

9 days ago

There has been a lot of talk lately about central banks implementing their own digital currencies.Why?As economist Daniel Lacalle notes, most transactions conducted using the world’s primary currencies are already electronic. In practice, the US dollar, the yen, the euro, the Swiss franc and the yuan already function as digital money. So why the rush to create new central bank digital currencies?Simply put, this is another front in the war on cash.And that means it’s about control.As Lacalle put it, this is basically another step in the effort to gradually get rid of physical currencies “with an idea of strengthening control of the payments and make it simpler to trace the use of a particular means of payment.”It’s also an effort to undercut the popularity of private digital currencies

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Silver Investment Demand Nearly Triples Through First Three Quarters of 2020

10 days ago

Holdings of silver in silver-backed Exchange-Trade Products (ETPs) rose by 297 million ounces through the first three quarters of 2020, according to data released by the Silver Institute. That’s nearly triple the level of silver inflows seen during the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, investors also had a strong appetite for silver bullion coins and bars.In a press release, the Silver Institute said, “Overall, this reflects both silver’s role as a safe haven asset and as a leveraged play on gold, as some investors expect silver to outperform the yellow metal.”Silver ETP holdings through the end of September stood at 1.026 billion ounces, slightly off the high of 1.052 billion ounces recorded in August. But the trend is heading upward again. As of Oct. 12, silver ETP holding totaled 1.046

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2020 Budget Deficit Comes In at a Cool $3.13 Trillion

11 days ago

The fiscal 2020 budget shortfall totaled $3.13 trillion as Uncle Sam added another $124.6 billion to the deficit in September, according to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement.That more than doubles the previous record deficit of $1.4 trillion set in 2009 at the height of the Great Recession. The fiscal year ended on Sept. 30. Revenues were basically flat on the year, falling slightly from $3.46 trillion in FY2019 to $3.42 trillion. But total spending soared, coming in at $6.55 trillion. That compares with $4.45 trillion spent in fiscal 2019.The national debt surged above $27 trillion on Oct. 1, and it has grown by over $7 trillion since President Trump took office. That equals $217,612 of debt for every American taxpayer.When Trump moved into the White House in January 2017, the debt

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Peter Schiff: The Best Election Outcome Is Gridlock

11 days ago

As we get closer to the 2020 election, analysts are starting to look at how various outcomes could affect the markets and the broader economy. Some of them are actually bullish on total Democratic Party control of the government.Why?In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff broke down what the analysts are saying and explains why he believes that the best possible outcome is gridlock.[embedded content]Markest are beginning to handicap the presidential race. Oddly, they seem to be viewing a Biden win as a positive for the stock market. Peter said this doesn’t really make sense.If Donald Trump being president was bullish for stocks because of what Trump was doing – if Biden was threatening to undo all that, and to increase taxes and have more regulation –  you would think that Wall Street would

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These Jobs Ain’t Comin’ Back: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Oct. 16, 2020

14 days ago

It’s been months since the US started to reopen after the government-imposed coronavirus shutdowns and yet hundreds of thousands of Americans continue to file for unemployment every week. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey takes a close look at the labor market and concludes that a lot of these jobs are never coming back. He also talks a little about the upcoming presidential election and makes a prediction about the outcome.The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play.Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver,

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Money Out of Thin Air: Exchanging Nothing for Something

15 days ago

In response to any economic downturn, the Federal Reserve cranks up the money printing press. The reaction to the economic chaos caused by the government response to the coronavirus pandemic was no different. The Fed launched what many have called “QE infinity,” and has increased the money supply at a record pace. A lot of politicians and pundits see no problem with this approach. After all, “inflation” remains muted despite the money printing.It’s true that by some measures, we haven’t seen the rising prices you would expect after injecting trillions of dollars created out of thin air into the economy. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t inflation. In fact, defined correctly, increasing the money supply inflation. And with our without rising consumer prices, inflation has pernicious

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“Temporary” Layoffs Turning Into Permanent Job Losses

15 days ago

When governments across the US forced businesses to close down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, everybody assumed the layoffs would be temporary. Despite the huge surge in unemployment, the expectation was people would quickly return to work once the crisis passed and the economy opened up again. But as the pandemic stretches into its eighth month, millions of Americans remain out of work and economists say many of those “temporary” job losses have become permanent.Millions of Americans have returned to work as expected. The unemployment rate has nearly halved to 7.9% since April. But nearly 13 million Americans remain out of work. That’s about 7 million more than pre-pandemic levels.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job losses categorized as permanent

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Goldman Sachs: Dump Dollars and Buy Silver

16 days ago

Sell dollars and buy silver. That’s Goldman Sachs’ recommendation.Peter Schiff has been warning about a dollar collapse and now the mainstream is even getting bearish on the dollar.In response to the economic shutdowns imposed by governments to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve is printing money to infinity and beyond.  On top of that, it has shifted its inflation targeting to allow inflation to run hot meaning there is no end in sight to the currency debasement. This is bearish for the dollar and an article published by last month quoted a number of mainstream analysts talking about “dollar woes.”Goldman Sachs has jumped on that bandwagon, saying in a recent report that “the risks are skewed toward dollar weakness.” Analysts see an increasing likelihood of a

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What Would a Biden Win Mean for the Economy?

16 days ago

Peter Schiff appeared on Kitco News with David Lin to talk about the investment implications of the upcoming US elections.Peter said he doesn’t feel good about the election and that he thinks Biden will likely win. He said the Democrats may even gain control of the Senate. So, what would a Biden win mean for the economy?As reckless as the Republicans have been with borrowing and spending, I expect the Democrats to be even worse. And unfortunately, unlike when Obama was president and you had some pushback from the Tea Party in the Republicans to kind of rein in Obama and keep him from borrowing and spending as much as he would have liked, that opposition is not going to exist anymore. Basically, the Tea Party is dead. Trump helped kill it.”[embedded content]Peter said with the ramped-up

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Corporate Bankruptcies Surge; Small Businesses Simply Shutting Down

17 days ago

As pundits and politicians continue to speculate about economic recovery, hundreds of companies large and small are struggling under loads of debt, filing for bankruptcy and closing their doors.In September, 54 more large companies filed for bankruptcy, according to S&P Global intelligence. A total of 509 companies have gone bankrupt this year as of Oct. 4, exceeding the number of filings during any comparable period since 2010.  That was piled on top of the 54 companies that filed for bankruptcy protection in August.S&P Global data includes public companies with a minimum of $2 million in either assets or liabilities or private companies with public debt and a minimum of $10 million in assets or liabilities.Thirty-seven companies have gone bankrupt with more than $1 billion in

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Inflows of Gold Into ETFs Tops 1,000 Tons on the Year

18 days ago

Globally, ETFs added gold for the 10th straight month in September and pushed total inflows to over 1,000 tons on the year.The previous yearly inflow record was 646 tons set back in 2009.Gold ETF holdings increased by 68.1 tons last month, despite the metal’s worst monthly price performance since November 2016, according to data released by the World Gold Council.So far in 2020, ETFs have added 1,003 tons of gold, taking total holdings to an all-time high of 3,880 tons and $235 billion in assets under management (AUM).Gold ETF holdings grew 7% during the third quarter, adding 273 tons or $16.4 billion in assets as the price of gold rose by nearly 7% during the same period. North American funds saw the biggest gold inflows during the quarter but the WGC said inflows in Asia stand out the

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Peter Schiff: Trump Out-Democrats Democrats on Stimulus

18 days ago

Last week, President Trump tweeted the rug out from under stimulus when he announced that negotiations were going to be cut off until after the election. The markets immediately tanked. But Trump quickly reversed course. As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast, the president is now in the process of out-Democrating the Democrats on the stimulus issue. Peter said the Republicans lost the argument the moment they conceded stimulus is “good” for the economy. Peter said the fact that the markets tanked the moment Trump tweeted that there would be no stimulus until after the election came as no surprise. As he put it, the markets know who butters their bread.The Fed has already said they’re not printing more money until the government sells more bonds. In other words, the Fed is on hold

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What Is the Retail Mess Telling Us? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Oct. 9, 2020

21 days ago

Regal Cinemas shut down all of its US theaters this week. The company said the closure is temporary, but it reveals the deeper strain in the retail sector. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs deeper into the retail mess and talks about what it is telling us about the broader economy. He also discusses the ongoing stimulus debate and the national debt news that nobody is talking about.The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play.Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful

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Seven Central Banks Increase Gold Reserves

22 days ago

Gold-buying by central banks has slowed from the record pace we saw in 2018 and 2019, but many countries continue to load up on the yellow metal.August saw the first net global decline in central bank gold holdings, but the number was skewed by a big sale by one central bank. Overall, seven countries increased their gold reserves by a ton or more in August, tying February for the highest number of buyers in a single month this year.Net central bank gold holding fell by 12.3 tons, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. The last time central banks were net-sellers was December 2019.That total was skewed sharply lower by a single seller – Uzbekistan. The Uzbek central bank shrank its reserves by 32 tons. According to the WGC, Uzbekistan has ramped up gold exports

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Peter Schiff: Stimulus Doesn’t Help the Underlying Economy

22 days ago

Peter Schiff appeared on along with Michele Schneider of MarketGauge to talk about market reaction to the stimulus stalemate, the impact of the upcoming election, and the prospects of the dollar.The interview was recorded before President Trump tweeted the rug out from under the hope of a stimulus deal and cut off negotiations with the Democrats. At the time, Peter said it was certainly possible we could get another round of “so-called” stimulus, but none of it actually helps the underlying economy.It doesn’t do anything to increase productive output of the economy. It does stimulate the markets. It makes stock prices go up. So clearly, there’s an interest for that. But that doesn’t help the actual economy. All it does is debase the value of our money.”[embedded content]Peter said he

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Peter Schiff: Trump Tweets the Stimulus Rug Out from Under the Markets

23 days ago

As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, President Donald Trump tweeted the fiscal stimulus rug out from under the markets when he abruptly announced he was ordering his representatives “to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.”The Dow tumbled just over 375 points and the NASDAQ fell 1.6%. Gold also dropped, falling back below $1,900 an ounce.Peter noted that the election is just four weeks away.Can the drug addicts on Wall Street hold off for another four weeks without going into stimulus withdrawal? So far, it doesn’t look that way. Because, you know, when you’ve got a drug habit as big as the one Wall Street has, anything that delays the next fix could really

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National Debt Surges Past $27 Trillion

24 days ago

The national debt has pushed above $27 trillion.The US government has added over $3 trillion to the national debt this year alone and there is no sign that the borrowing and spending will stop.In fact, most people don’t even seem to care.The debt surged above $27 trillion on Oct. 1. It barely even got a mention in the mainstream media.Most people blame the coronavirus pandemic for the surging debt. But the Trump administration was running up massive deficits before COVID-19 reared its ugly head. It simply continued and accelerated the spending problem inherited from the Obama administration. The truth is the federal government was spending as if there was a major economic crisis  the current economic crisis.The proof is in the numbers.In fiscal 2019, the Trump administration ran the

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De-Dollarization Trend Remains Intact

25 days ago

Global de-dollarization resumed in the second quarter according to data recently released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).While the dollar share of global reserves increased in the first quarter of 2020, it fell sharply in Q2, resuming a more than two-year trend downward.The share of euros making up global reserves rose slightly and the share of yen dropped. The second quarter saw the largest build-up of reserves in Chinese RMB and “other currencies”The increase in dollar reserves in Q1 was likely an anomaly triggered by increased valuation and safe-haven buying during the early stages of the COVID-19 panic.A Bank of America report concluded, “the de-dollarization theme appears intact.” According to its data, the share of US holdings has declined to 61.3%, “slightly more than

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Peter Schiff: Trump COVID-19 Positive; Employment Outlook Negative

25 days ago

We got the September jobs report on Friday but it was completely overshadowed by the announcement that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. Peter talked about the ramifications of both in his podcast.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusted number, the US economy added 661,000 new jobs last month. This was a significant miss from the well over 800,000 jobs economists were projecting. Still, the unemployment rate came in lower than expected, at 7.9%. That was a healthy drop from August’s 8.4%. That would seem like good news. But the drop in the unemployment rate was partly due to the number of people who just gave up. The labor participation rate fell from 61.7% in August to 61.4% in September.Peter said it’s hard to know what to make to Trump’s positive

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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Oct. 2, 2020

28 days ago

The September labor market report comes out today, but it may not tell the whole story when it comes to jobs. On this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the long-term prospects for the labor market in the wake of coronavirus lockdowns. He also discusses recent price moves in gold and silver, and talks a little about future prospects for the dollar. The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play.Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary.LISTEN[embedded content]You Can

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Peter Schiff: Fourth Quarter Fireworks

29 days ago

In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff looked back at the third quarter and ahead to Q4. He said we may well see fireworks next quarter. Of course, a big factor will be the presidential election. Peter talked about the prospects for the economy in the wake of the election, and he also broke down what he called “a debate to forget.”Stocks finished the month down modestly, but they were up on the quarter. In fact, virtually everything was up in Q3. As Peter said, it was purely a function of the Fed.It was the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep interest rates low and to continue to monetize debt that drove the gains in the equity markets.”[embedded content]Despite the big selloff in September, gold ended Q3 up about 6%. Silver was hit the hardest last month, falling about 18%. But despite

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Companies Announce Tens of Thousands of Layoffs

29 days ago

Tens of thousands of people will get pink slips in the coming weeks as the long-term economic damage caused by government lockdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic begin to ripple through the economy.Disney announced it will lay off 28,000 employees. US airlines are poised to let up to 50,000 workers go. Allstate plans to cut around 3,000 jobs. Royal Dutch Shell will eliminate around 9,000 jobs globally. German auto-parts supplier Continental AG announced it will cut or shift some 30,000 jobs worldwide. Halliburton plans to eliminate an entire layer of management. Marathon Oil is set to launch round two of job cuts, shedding another 2,000 jobs. And Goldman Sachs said it will cut its workforce by about 400 jobs.Meanwhile, politicians and pundits continue to fantasize about a

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Central Bank Gold-Buying Expected to Ramp Up Next Year

September 30, 2020

Central bank gold-buying is expected to ramp up again in 2021 with Russia and China possibly entering back into the market.Citigroup and HSBC Securities both expect an increase in central bank gold purchases next year after a drop-off in 2020. reported that according to Citi, Russia could return to the market next spring and China’s central bank may resume adding to reserves after the presidential election.After record years in 2018 and 2019, central bank gold-buying has slowed this year – although it remains strong. Through the first half of 2020, central bank net purchases of gold totaled about 233 tons. That was 39% lower year-on-year. The lower rate of purchases in 2020 was expected given the strength of central bank buying both in 2018 and 2019. The economic chaos caused by the

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