Monday , September 23 2019
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Friday evening links – Publications – AEI

Summary:
AEI Friday evening links 1. Chart of the Day I (above) is based on data released today by the BEA on GDP by Industry and shows that real manufacturing output increased in Q4 of last year for the 8th straight quarter to a new record high of .15 trillion (in constant 2012 dollars). It also marks the third straight quarter starting in Q2 last year of US manufacturing output above the 2007:Q4 peak of .12 trillion. So I think we can now officially say that “US manufacturing is alive well” as American factories are once again producing output at all-time record highs quarter after quarter. Carpe vestibulum 2. Chart of the Day II (above) displays the 12 US economic expansions since WWII ranked by duration in months based on the NBER’s research on”US Business Cycle Expansions and

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Friday evening links

Friday evening links - Publications – AEI

1. Chart of the Day I (above) is based on data released today by the BEA on GDP by Industry and shows that real manufacturing output increased in Q4 of last year for the 8th straight quarter to a new record high of $2.15 trillion (in constant 2012 dollars). It also marks the third straight quarter starting in Q2 last year of US manufacturing output above the 2007:Q4 peak of $2.12 trillion. So I think we can now officially say that “US manufacturing is alive well” as American factories are once again producing output at all-time record highs quarter after quarter. Carpe vestibulum

Friday evening links - Publications – AEI

2. Chart of the Day II (above) displays the 12 US economic expansions since WWII ranked by duration in months based on the NBER’s research on”US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions” that goes back to the 1850s. The longest economic expansion in US history was 120 months from March 1991 to February 2001, the current economic expansion that started in June 2009 is just one month shy of the record as of this month – April 2019. Assuming another US recession isn’t pending, the current economic expansion will tie the record next month in May at 120 months, and will set a new record for US economic expansions of 121 months in June. If the current economic expansion continues into next year, which at the moment seems fairly likely, we can expect Donald Trump to campaign for reelection on the fact that the US economy reached the longest period of expansion during his first term in office. Stay tuned…..

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Friday evening links - Publications – AEI3. Election Odds. Speaking of the 2020 election, here are the current election betting odds, with the highlights featured in the graphic above.

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4. Annoying Fact of the Day I. Almost 80% of those utilizing the elective vehicle (EV) tax credit have incomes over $100,000, making it not just a corporate handout but also a transfer from all workers to wealthier Americans according to Mercatus Center economist Veronique de Rugy (“Bipartisan Support for Electric Vehicle Handouts Betrays Taxpayers“) who further points out that:

Because all personal vehicles in the United States account for only a small fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, even an unrealistic influx of electric vehicles would prove to be negligible. Besides, standard internal combustion engines emit far less pollution today than they have in the past. Simply replacing older cars can do as much or more to benefit the environment than even entirely switching over to electric vehicles.

5. Annoying Fact of the Day II. The use of a military jet for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s two-week family vacation on a private island pumped about as much carbon dioxide (32.3 tons) into the atmosphere as the average Canadian per year. Source.

Friday evening links - Publications – AEI

7. Cartoons of the Day (above), some more goods one from Patrick Cross.

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8. Quotation of the Day is from the article “Why Are Women Under-Represented in Physics?” by Italian physicist and former CERN scientist Alessandro Strumia, who was condemned by his colleagues and suspended by CERN for giving a talk six months ago where he dared to present empirical evidence that suggested discrimination and sexism in physics are not the main reasons for female under-representation, but rather factors like gender differences in interests and the greater male variability hypothesis (first put forward by Charles Darwin in 1871):

Reason and objectivity, once the bedrock of science, are frequently dismissed as tools of systemic oppression. Science that contradicts the dominant political narrative is attacked, particularly anything relating to gender. Scientific data about gender, like the ones I found, are deemed to be “offensive” when they challenge beliefs that are held as sacred. I used to hold these beliefs myself and when Larry Summers lost his job at Harvard I was pleased. But the data have forced me to change my mind. Surely, that’s what a good scientist should do?

Many academics embrace the politics of Social Justice, believing it will help the vulnerable rather than create more problems. Diversocrats claims that all cultures are good and attack as “oppressive” the Western culture that ended slavery, introduced universal suffrage, significantly reduced extreme poverty around the world, etc. They don’t want equal opportunities but equal outcomes, which mean positive discrimination based on arbitrary physical characteristic that make those groups they designate as victims more equal than others. As before in our history, those who claim to be fighting against oppression have become the new oppressors.

Friday evening links - Publications – AEI

9. Chart of the Day III (above) shows the percentage of US births to unmarried women by race in 2017 according to recently released government data. Here’s some related commentary from GMU economist Walter E. Williams’s article “The ‘root cause’ few will admit“:

The root of the problem, particularly among black Americans, is the breakdown of the family unit where fathers are absent. In 1938, 11 percent of blacks were born to unmarried women. By 1965, that number had grown to 25 percent. Now it’s about 75 percent. Even during slavery, when marriage between blacks was illegal, a higher percentage of black children were raised by their biological mothers and fathers than today. In 1940, 86 percent of black children were born inside marriage. Today, only 35 percent of black children are born inside marriage.

Most of today’s major problems encountered by black people have little or nothing to do with racial discrimination and a legacy of slavery. People who make those excuses are doing a grave disservice to black people. The major problems black people face are not amenable to political solutions and government anti-poverty programs. If they were, then they’d be solved by the more than $20 trillion dollars nation has spent on poverty programs since 1965.

10. Video of the Day (below) on another aspect of the complete failure of socialism in the basket-case economy known as Venezuela: “As soaring inflation in Venezuela creates a shortage of cash, people have turned to bartering, exchanging fish for different types of food and other goods.” Using inefficient barter instead of cash is like going back in time about 400 years. Here’s a variation of this jokeQ: What did socialists use before barter? A: Money.

Friday evening links
Mark Perry

Mark Perry
Mark J. Perry is concurrently a scholar at AEI and a professor of economics and finance at the University of Michigan’s Flint campus. He is best known as the creator and editor of the popular economics blog Carpe Diem. At AEI, Perry writes about economic and financial issues for American.com and the AEIdeas blog.

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