Mauldin Letter

More than 10 years ago some Australian readers begin regaling me with the ideas of economist Bill Mitchell of the University of Newcastle in New South Wales. He was teaching about something he called (and he coined the term) Modern Monetary Theory. I looked into it and fairly quickly dismissed it as silly. Actually printing...

The Soviet Union’s collapse and spread of semi-free markets through Eastern Europe seemingly ended the socialism vs. capitalism argument. Capitalism had won. Collectivist economies everywhere began turning free. Even communist China adopted a form of free market capitalism although, as they say, with “Chinese...

“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” —US President Dwight D. Eisenhower There are many versions of that Eisenhower quote he learned in the Army. Nixon, who probably heard it from Eisenhower directly, modified it to “… plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” Both are variations on the theme,...

"To be absolutely certain about something, one must know everything or nothing about it." —Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State This month I’ve discussed some possible pathways for 2019. But beyond that, for the past year or so, I have been talking about what I think may unfold over the next decade. The...

The production of souls is more important than the production of tanks.... And therefore I raise my glass to you, writers, the engineers of the human soul. Joseph Stalin, 1932 [Our purpose is] to ensure that literature and art fit well into the whole revolutionary machine as a component part, that they operate as...

For a couple of years now, the economic narrative has shown a comparatively strong US against weakness in Europe and some of Asia (NOT China). The US, we are told, will stay on top. I agree with that, as far as it goes... but I’m not convinced the “top” will be so great. Americans like to think we are insulated from...

Double, double, toil and trouble;Fire burn and cauldron bubble. …By the pricking of my thumbs,Something wicked this way comes. - William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act IV, Scene I, 1606 Remember when it was a January ritual to fill in the new year on your blank checks? If you’re under 50, probably not. That we can now...

A winters day,In a deep and dark December… “Wait, it doesn’t feel like winter. It’s not deep and dark, and it’s actually warm, and the sun is shining. Toto Shane, I don’t think we’re in Kansas Texas anymore.” Yes, we have actually moved from Texas to a new location. I’ll explain why and where below. But first, we...

We have reached the best time of year, when we can look to the future with hope. We can stop wondering what will happen in 2018 and look forward to 2019. The investment industry always does this enthusiastically, as you will see in forecasts everywhere the next few weeks. Not wanting to be left out, or leave you...

Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve. They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. The yield curve isn’t saying recession is imminent, even if it were fully inverted, which it is not. What we see now is...