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The author Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff
Peter David Schiff (born March 23, 1963) is an American financial analyst, stockbroker, author, and one-time Senate candidate. He has appeared as a guest on numerous financial television shows and has been quoted in major print publications as a financial analyst and economist. He is host of The Peter Schiff Show, an audio show broadcast on terrestrial and Internet radio, and he was formerly host of an Internet podcast called Wall Street Unspun, now archived as podcasts.

Peter Schiff

A Very Average Jobs Report

According to the BLS, the economy added 428k jobs in April. This exactly matched the March number after it was revised down by 3k. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6%. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped from 62.4% to 62.2%. YoY, this April is up 165k jobs compared to last April.Looking at the raw numbers, the MoM gain is nearly 300k but up only about 20k when compared to last year.Comparing the adjusted data to non-adjusted shows that this April saw the smallest adjustment...

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A New Paradigm: Interest Grows Even When Total Debt Shrinks

The Treasury reduced the total debt by $27B in April. This is not atypical since Tax Day falls in April. In April 2016 and 2018, the debt shrunk $78B and $21B respectively. April 2017 and 2019 were both flat due to a debt ceiling saga. 2020 and 2021 were exceptions because the tax deadline was extended.Unfortunately, even though the total debt shrunk, annualized interest actually increased by $7B between March and April! This is due to increased interest rates. The 25bps Fed hike in March...

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The Crossroads Is Looming! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap May 6, 2022

The Fed hiked rates 0.5% this week in an effort to stem the inflation tide. But the economy already looks shaky and the central bank has barely started this inflation fight. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey breaks down the messaging that came out of the Fed meeting and concludes the central bank is getting closer and closer to a crossroads. What will the central bank do? And what will it mean for the economy?The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the...

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Trade Deficit Explodes 22.3% MoM and 53.8% YoY

The March trade deficit came in at -$110B. This obliterated the February record trade deficit of $90B. As the chart below shows, the trade deficit has set a record in each of the last 4 months. It was creeping upwards from -$80B to -$90B before  in the latest month.The table below provides detail.Monthly Trade DeficitExports grew in both Goods (+7.3%) and Services (+1.8%)Imports grew faster in Goods (12%) but slower in Services (1.7%)The growth on Goods is such a big number (-$267B) that...

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Buckle Up for a Crashing Economy and More Inflation

Jerome Powell began hinting that inflation might be a problem last August. In November, Powell retired the word “transitory.” But here we are in May and the Federal Reserve still hasn’t done anything substantive to address the inflation problem.And now it may be too late. It’s probably time to buckle up for more inflation – and perhaps a crashing economy.Powell and Company have been talking tough for months, but there hasn’t been a whole lot of action. In March, the central bank raised...

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The Fed Takes a Weak Swing at Inflation

The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. It was the biggest interest rate boost by the Fed since 2000. But given the extent of the inflation fight, this hardly seems like a bold, aggressive move. In fact, it was a weak swing that looks more like shadow boxing. And one has to wonder just how long the Fed can stay in the ring.The 50 basis point hike was expected and there was some speculation that the Fed...

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Student Loan Forgiveness: Who Pays?

Student loan forgiveness has been in the news lately. There are a number of different plans being floated, from blanket debt repudiation up to various amounts, to more limited income-based schemes. But nobody ever talks about a key question: who is going to pay for it?Well, you will.I think most Americans think Joe Biden or Congress can just wave some kind of magic wand and student loan debt will just disappear. Poof! No harm, no foul. In fact, I think a lot of people believe student loan...

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Has the Fed Already Pricked the Housing Bubble?

The Federal Reserve has raised rates once – a mere 25 basis points (with another hike on the table today). So, it’s just getting started, but has it already popped the housing bubble? It sure looks that way. The question is how long will it take for the air to really start coming out.As mortgage rates push up, mortgage applications continue to fall. As of last week, applications were down 17%, and at the lowest level since May 2020 when the economy was shut down for COVID, according to...

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Comex Results: May is Quiet, but June Looks Strong in Both Metals

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.As reported last week, Comex May’s open interest activity was looking weak in silver while gold showed a mixed picture. May has been weak so far, but June continues to look strong.Silver: Recent Delivery MonthSilver has begun May very weak. Assuming the remaining open interest of 2,942 contracts are all delivered, this would be the weakest month since September last...

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Central Banks Added Nearly 84 Tons of Gold to Reserves in Q1

Despite a number of big sales, global central bank gold demand remained brisk as net holdings increased by 83.8 tons in the first quarter of 2022.That more than doubled the 41.2-ton expansion of central bank gold reserves in the last quarter of 2021 but was 29% lower than the first quarter of last year.The World Gold Council called central bank gold demand “somewhat muted, but nonetheless positive” in a “turbulent quarter marked by geopolitical crises and surging inflation.”Egypt was the...

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