Wednesday , June 20 2018
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# Scott Alexander’s Self-Evaluations

Summary:
I just learned that blogger Scott Alexander starts ends the year by scoring the accuracy of his numerous annual predictions: here are the results for 2014, 2015, and 2016.  Since he assigns probabilities to each prediction, Scott can graph his ex ante subjective probabilities against the ex post objective probabilities.  Here's his graph for 2016.  The red line shows perfect calibration; the blue line shows Scott's actual calibration.Contrary to Tyler, this is not "just another kind of religion," but this intensity of scrupulous rationality does approach the divine.  Or as a wise man once said, "People who say it cannot be done shouldn't interrupt those who are doing it."

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I just learned that blogger Scott Alexander starts ends the year by scoring the accuracy of his numerous annual predictions: here are the results for 2014, 2015, and 2016.  Since he assigns probabilities to each prediction, Scott can graph his ex ante subjective probabilities against the ex post objective probabilities.  Here's his graph for 2016.  The red line shows perfect calibration; the blue line shows Scott's actual calibration.
Contrary to Tyler, this is not "just another kind of religion," but this intensity of scrupulous rationality does approach the divine.  Or as a wise man once said, "People who say it cannot be done shouldn't interrupt those who are doing it."
Bryan Caplan is Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Senior Scholar at the Mercatus Center. He has published in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the American Economic Review, the Economic Journal, the Journal of Law and Economics, and Intelligence, and has appeared on 20/20, FoxNews, and C-SPAN. Bryan Caplan blogs on EconLog.