Two years ago, I made the following bet with a brave young economic pessimist, Jackson Taylor:0 on whether or not America will have a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, in the next two years. Q4 of 2017 being the end of the period. But if that quarter happens to be negative, then we can look to the next one to see if we were or were not in the middle of a recession.Fourth quarter U.S. GDP numbers are now in, showing +2.6% annualized GDP growth. Since growth was positive in every preceding quarter since the bet, I have clearly won. The commendable Jackson prepaid, so we are all settled up.Why did I make this bet? As I explained at the time:Base rates. U.S.
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