Wednesday , August 5 2020
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I “Win” My Bet

Summary:
In mid-March I made a bet with my good friend and co-author Charley Hooper about the number of U.S. deaths there would be from COVID-19. The terms of the bet are here. In my post, I said why I thought he might win. Of course I hoped he would win. Unfortunately, he lost. And over 100,000 U.S. residents lost much, much more. I waited this long because he and I both agreed that there could be a substantial number of deaths of people with the disease but not of the disease. We both agree, though, that of the 133,844 U.S. deaths so far, at least 100,000 of them are due to COVID-19. I actually had bought much of Charley’s reasoning, which is why I titled my March 16 post “My Bet on Covid-19 and Why I Might Lose.” I asked Charley last week, when we both were becoming

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I “Win” My Bet

In mid-March I made a bet with my good friend and co-author Charley Hooper about the number of U.S. deaths there would be from COVID-19. The terms of the bet are here. In my post, I said why I thought he might win. Of course I hoped he would win. Unfortunately, he lost. And over 100,000 U.S. residents lost much, much more.

I waited this long because he and I both agreed that there could be a substantial number of deaths of people with the disease but not of the disease. We both agree, though, that of the 133,844 U.S. deaths so far, at least 100,000 of them are due to COVID-19.

I actually had bought much of Charley’s reasoning, which is why I titled my March 16 post “My Bet on Covid-19 and Why I Might Lose.” I asked Charley last week, when we both were becoming convinced that he lost, what he attributed his loss to. He answered that he didn’t expect various governments to be so incompetent, and he highlighted the role of New York’s governor Andrew Cuomo and some other northeast governments in making the problem much worse by insisting that nursing homes admit people with the disease.

David Henderson
David Henderson is a British economist. He was the Head of the Economics and Statistics Department at the OECD in 1984–1992. Before that he worked as an academic economist in Britain, first at Oxford (Fellow of Lincoln College) and later at University College London (Professor of Economics, 1975–1983); as a British civil servant (first as an Economic Advisor in HM Treasury, and later as Chief Economist in the Ministry of Aviation); and as a staff member of the World Bank (1969–1975). In 1985 he gave the BBC Reith Lectures, which were published in the book Innocence and Design: The Influence of Economic Ideas on Policy (Blackwell, 1986).

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