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Ivor Cummins on the Coronavirus

Summary:
I found this video by Ivor Cummins quite informative. Of course, I’m open to being told why he might be, or even is, wrong. The data on Sweden and “dry tinder” are particularly interesting. Economists Dan Klein, Joakim Book, and Christian Bjornskov have written about this and he quotes it. One thing I think Cummins brushed by unconvincingly is the difference between the USA Midwest and the USA Northeast, at about the 23:40 point. He says the shape is similar. He and I have a different view of the word “similar.” One of the most upsetting parts is about how the lockdowns during the summer lengthened the time to herd immunity and therefore might themselves create an increase in the deaths in the fall and winter.

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I found this video by Ivor Cummins quite informative. Of course, I’m open to being told why he might be, or even is, wrong.

The data on Sweden and “dry tinder” are particularly interesting. Economists Dan Klein, Joakim Book, and Christian Bjornskov have written about this and he quotes it.

One thing I think Cummins brushed by unconvincingly is the difference between the USA Midwest and the USA Northeast, at about the 23:40 point. He says the shape is similar. He and I have a different view of the word “similar.”

One of the most upsetting parts is about how the lockdowns during the summer lengthened the time to herd immunity and therefore might themselves create an increase in the deaths in the fall and winter.

David Henderson
David Henderson is a British economist. He was the Head of the Economics and Statistics Department at the OECD in 1984–1992. Before that he worked as an academic economist in Britain, first at Oxford (Fellow of Lincoln College) and later at University College London (Professor of Economics, 1975–1983); as a British civil servant (first as an Economic Advisor in HM Treasury, and later as Chief Economist in the Ministry of Aviation); and as a staff member of the World Bank (1969–1975). In 1985 he gave the BBC Reith Lectures, which were published in the book Innocence and Design: The Influence of Economic Ideas on Policy (Blackwell, 1986).

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