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Manitoba COVID-19 Data

Summary:
In this video interview, Dr. Joel Kettner, formerly the Manitoba government’s chief public health officer, presents some striking statistics and commentary. I checked his numbers and it’s clear that the interview is current. The interviewer starts by stating the “flatten the curve” rationale. But look at his numbers, which I confirmed here, and see if what’s going on has anything to do with “flattening the curve,” even in Manitoba’s single-payer system of health care. Number of cases: 4,500. (Actually, it’s 4,532.) That’s 1 in 300 population. Number of deaths: 58. That’s 1 in 25,000 population and less than 1% of all deaths. Number of ICU admissions: 15, which is 20% of all ICU beds. In a typical flu season, the majority of ICU beds are taken up by people with

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Manitoba COVID-19 Data

In this video interview, Dr. Joel Kettner, formerly the Manitoba government’s chief public health officer, presents some striking statistics and commentary.

I checked his numbers and it’s clear that the interview is current. The interviewer starts by stating the “flatten the curve” rationale. But look at his numbers, which I confirmed here, and see if what’s going on has anything to do with “flattening the curve,” even in Manitoba’s single-payer system of health care.

Number of cases: 4,500. (Actually, it’s 4,532.) That’s 1 in 300 population.

Number of deaths: 58. That’s 1 in 25,000 population and less than 1% of all deaths.

Number of ICU admissions: 15, which is 20% of all ICU beds. In a typical flu season, the majority of ICU beds are taken up by people with acute lung injury or pneumonia.

Number of hospitalizations: 83. This is < 3% of all beds.

Percent usage of ventilator capacity: < 1%.

80% of deaths in Canada are of people over the age of 85 and residents of personal care homes. (This was right at the end where he felt rushed, so it’s possible that he meant “or,” not “and.”)

Watch, at about the point where 2:20 is left, how he makes the point that so many of us have been making: look at the big picture and look at tradeoffs. The lockdowns might well be causing more deaths than they’re saving. (He doesn’t go that far, but I wonder if he would.)

Why did I choose Manitoba? The main reason is that that’s where I grew up. The second reason is that Dr. Kettner made his points more clearly and succinctly than I’ve typically seen.

HT2 Cameron Neumann.

David Henderson
David Henderson is a British economist. He was the Head of the Economics and Statistics Department at the OECD in 1984–1992. Before that he worked as an academic economist in Britain, first at Oxford (Fellow of Lincoln College) and later at University College London (Professor of Economics, 1975–1983); as a British civil servant (first as an Economic Advisor in HM Treasury, and later as Chief Economist in the Ministry of Aviation); and as a staff member of the World Bank (1969–1975). In 1985 he gave the BBC Reith Lectures, which were published in the book Innocence and Design: The Influence of Economic Ideas on Policy (Blackwell, 1986).

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