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I Win My Trump Bet

Summary:
Back when Trump was President-Elect Trump, I made the following bet: If Donald Trump dies in office, resigns, is removed  by the Senate after impeachment, or otherwise is permanently removed as per the the 25th Amendment, or if it never happens that he takes the Oath of office as POTUS on Jan 20, 2017, the BC owes [redacted] 0. Otherwise, [redacted] owes BC 0. Since Trump has now completed his term, I have won this bet, bringing my cumulative public betting record to 22 wins, 0 losses.  False modesty aside, I take great pride in my track record. Surprisingly, I could have gotten much better odds if I had made this bet anytime from late 2017 to mid-2018.  Check out the historical odds. This market wasn’t open when I made the original bet, but I discovered the

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Back when Trump was President-Elect Trump, I made the following bet:

If Donald Trump dies in office, resigns, is removed  by the Senate after impeachment, or otherwise is permanently removed as per the the 25th Amendment, or if it never happens that he takes the Oath of office as POTUS on Jan 20, 2017, the BC owes [redacted] $350. Otherwise, [redacted] owes BC $100.

Since Trump has now completed his term, I have won this bet, bringing my cumulative public betting record to 22 wins, 0 losses.  False modesty aside, I take great pride in my track record.

Surprisingly, I could have gotten much better odds if I had made this bet anytime from late 2017 to mid-2018.  Check out the historical odds.

I Win My Trump Bet

This market wasn’t open when I made the original bet, but I discovered the existence of this Trump betting market by early 2018.  So why didn’t I leap on this opportunity to raise the stakes at much better odds?  If I leapt into the market when it opened, my odds would have been even instead of 7:2 against me.

So what gives?  My honest answer is a combination of (a) I was disturbed to learn that the market was so against me, and (b) I didn’t (and still don’t) know how to place a bet in this market.  In hindsight, of course, I wish I’d bet the farm.  Live and learn.

P.S. Thanks to Duncan Levear for pointing out an error in the original post.

Bryan Caplan
Bryan Caplan is Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Senior Scholar at the Mercatus Center. He has published in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the American Economic Review, the Economic Journal, the Journal of Law and Economics, and Intelligence, and has appeared on 20/20, FoxNews, and C-SPAN. Bryan Caplan blogs on EconLog.

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