Friday , December 3 2021
Home / Charles Hugh Smith /Doing 90 MPH on Deadman’s Curve: A Few Thoughts on Risk

Doing 90 MPH on Deadman’s Curve: A Few Thoughts on Risk

Summary:
When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will wonder why they took such heedless, foolish risks. You’re in the back seat wedged between tipsy revelers, the driver is drunk and heading into Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour. Nobody’s worried because the driver has never crashed.Before they slid into euphoric incoherence, the other passengers answered your doubts with statistics and pretty charts showing that the driver had never had an accident, so there was nothing to worry about. They also said that the driver’s Uncle Fed had rigged the vehicle with an anti-accident device, so a crash was impossible. One passenger blurted out that a fellow named Goldy Sacks said the driver could easily “melt up” and take Deadman’s Curve at 120 miles per hour without any trouble. You see the problem

Topics:
Charles Hugh Smith considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Mises Institute writes Jenin Younes on Legal Challenges to Vaccine Mandates

Mises Institute writes The Rise of the Sovereign State

Mises Institute writes How Student Loans Drove Up Tuition Costs

Mises Institute writes The Bank of Canada’s Failed Mission to “Preserve the Value of Money”

When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will wonder why they took such heedless, foolish risks.

You’re in the back seat wedged between tipsy revelers, the driver is drunk and heading into Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour. Nobody’s worried because the driver has never crashed.Before they slid into euphoric incoherence, the other passengers answered your doubts with statistics and pretty charts showing that the driver had never had an accident, so there was nothing to worry about.

They also said that the driver’s Uncle Fed had rigged the vehicle with an anti-accident device, so a crash was impossible. One passenger blurted out that a fellow named Goldy Sacks said the driver could easily “melt up” and take Deadman’s Curve at 120 miles per hour without any trouble.

You see the problem here: the risk of crashing and expiring is soaring but the giddy occupants are completely confident there’s no risk, and this confidence is the source of the danger.If you’re sure Uncle Fed’s device can protect the vehicle from any crash, then why not take Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour?

And if Goldy Sacks says you could actually take it at 120 miles per hour, then taking it at 90 MPH is actually quite prudent and cautious.

This confidence inspires tremendous risk-taking that eventually ends very badly for all the revelers. The irony is rich: the greater the confidence, the greater the risk, the greater the risk, the greater the odds of a crash. The greater the risks being taken, the greater the odds that the crash will be fatal to all occupants.

The confidence in Uncle Fed’s safety device is delusional because it’s never been tested.The fact that the driver hasn’t crashed doesn’t mean the risk is low or Uncle Fed’s device works perfectly, it simply means luck has been on the driver’s side.

It also doesn’t mean the driver can take Deadman’s Curve at 90 MPH without any risk. It simply means the driver hasn’t taken on more risk than he can handle until now.

When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will wonder why they took such heedless, foolish risks. What they couldn’t know is the occupants were all giddily confident that a crash was impossible no matter how great the risks. So why not take more risk?

Indeed. This makes perfect sense: if a crash is impossible, then by all means take Deadman’s Curve at 120 MPH.

Doing 90 MPH on Deadman’s Curve: A Few Thoughts on Risk

If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

My new book is available!A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17, audiobook now available $17.46)

Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF).

The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction.

Recent Videos/Podcasts:

Charles Hugh Smith on the Failure of the Federal Reserve and Rising Secular Inflation (31:16) (with Richard Bonugli, FRA Roundtable)

four monster waves that are about to crash onto the Fed’s beach party (with Gordon Long, 40 min.)

My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts

My recent books:

A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), (audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake$1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print)Read the first section for free (PDF).

Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.

Thank you, Rick A. ($108), for your outrageously generous contribution to this site — I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

 

Thank you, Bob W. ($5/month), for your marvelously generous pledge to this site — I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Thank you, Steven T. ($5/month), for your fantastically generous subscription to this site — I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

 

Thank you, Ned S. ($5/month), for your superbly generous pledge to this site — I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Powered by WPeMatico

Charles Hugh Smith
Charles Hugh Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites. His commentary is featured on a number of sites including: Zerohedge.com., The American Conservative and Peak Prosperity. He graduated from the University of Hawaii, Manoa in Honolulu. Charles Hugh Smith currently resides in Berkeley, California and Hilo, Hawaii.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *