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Dollar Buying Continues…

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A Pfennig For Your Thoughts November 29, 2021 * Currencies & Gold rally on Friday in thin volume…  * The Dollar Tree is now the .25 Tree…  Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I trust you all had a very Blessed Thanksgiving? I did, and enjoyed seeing everyone once again… I was sad to hear that son Andrew, and his family, which includes my little Evie, would not be with us this year, at it was the year where they went to his wife’s (Rachel) mom’s for Thanksgiving… And that brought me back to old memories of the arguments Kathy and I used to get into about who’s house we would be going to on Thanksgiving… But those all ended, thankfully, when I decided that we would host Thanksgiving at our house every year, and from then on… things have gone beautifully! Silly things, that aren’t

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A Pfennig For Your Thoughts
November 29, 2021
* Currencies & Gold rally on Friday in thin volume… 
* The Dollar Tree is now the $1.25 Tree… 
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I trust you all had a very Blessed Thanksgiving? I did, and enjoyed seeing everyone once again… I was sad to hear that son Andrew, and his family, which includes my little Evie, would not be with us this year, at it was the year where they went to his wife’s (Rachel) mom’s for Thanksgiving… And that brought me back to old memories of the arguments Kathy and I used to get into about who’s house we would be going to on Thanksgiving… But those all ended, thankfully, when I decided that we would host Thanksgiving at our house every year, and from then on… things have gone beautifully! Silly things, that aren’t worth arguing about, eh? I made a typo error on Wednesday last week, I mentioned that I loved the song Winter Romance by Beegie Adair, but I typed Adams… UGH! Well, she’s playing again this morning, her version of the song: Little Drummer Boy
Well, when I left you last week on Wednesday, the dollar was kicking tail and taking names later, and there appeared to be nothing to stop it.. .The BBDXY on Wednesday closed at 1,190.43 up a lot from the beginning of the week… I had mentioned on Wednesday that the Datapalooza which took place on Wednesday could spell the end of the dollar buying… Well, it took a day for that to happen, and on Wednesday it appeared that I was barking up the wrong tree… But after Thursday’s non-event market goings on, because of the U.S. Holiday, Friday came along, and PFFT, went the dollar buying.. So maybe Chuck was right, and it just took a days for it to come to fruition… But probably not… Because there was something afoot in the markets on Friday… So, let’s go to the tape!
On Friday, with the markets pretty thin, as most senior traders were taking a 4 day holiday weekend, there came news that a new COVID Variant “Omicron” was spreading in S. Africa, and the markets went bananas… Stocks got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, Oil got sold down by $10, the biggest one-day drop since spring of 2020… The cryptocurrencies got sold, and…. The dollar got sold… The scare in the markets really pushed investors to run to bonds, which is just stranger than fiction to me, because who wants a bond that’s paying negative yield when you count inflation… But to each his own, right?  
Gold was bought on Friday, in some very thin volume, and ended the day up $3.40 to end the week at $1,792.80… Silver just can’t find a bid anywhere these days folks… the common man’s Gold ended the week at $23.19. 
The currencies, by virtue of the dollar selling found a rally deep inside the trading pits, with the euro finding its way back above 1.13… I don’t know if it’s time to come out, come out, wherever you are, like the good witch, Glinda, said to the munchkins, but this week will tell us if that is to be or not… But at least a tourniquet was wrapped around the bleeding currencies on Friday… And there’s not much in the way of real economic data this week, until we get to Friday, so let’s see how the dollar fares…
In the overnight markets last night… Well, it appears to me that Friday’s trading was simply a case of light volume, and no real trading taking place, as the the dollar buying was reignited in the overnight markets last night.. The BBDXY rose to 1,1187, and the euro fell back below 1.13… It will be interesting to see how the markets here in the U.S. feel about the Omicron variant…  
The price of Oil rebounded a bit overnight, after taking on the selling that brought it down over $10 on Friday, Black Gold, Texas Tea, is up $3 and trades with a $71 handle this morning… The selling of the S. African rand on Friday, due to the news of the new variant in their country, and then again last night has been something to see… and not something good! The Treasury’s 10-year yield has dropped to 1.54%, from last Wednesday’s 1.66%.. So, bonds were bought by the truckload, folks… 
Speaking of buying bonds… The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel’s tapering does the exact opposite of buying bonds, and I’ve argued that I don’t see how the knuckleheads at the Eccles Building will be able to stay on the tapering course for too much longer… And I’m not alone in that thought… I was scanning Twitter yesterday, and saw this quote from Stephanie Pomboy, of whom I really hold in high regard, for her knowledge of the markets and data… So, she was saying that she would wager a bet that the Fed will have to stop its tapering before they get to the end…   
There was also a point that she made about Retail Sales, which last week showed a rise of .9% in Rocktober… She said, that rise was brought on by higher prices, not increased sales… Great Point! 
Ok… A couple of things that took place last week, while we stuffed ourselves with goodies… Dollar Tree, which has sold things for $1 for over 30 years, is raising their price to $1.25… Not that it’s the end of the world, just symbolic… But just shows to go ya, that inflation is hurting the common person, and not the elite… 
And this one really tore at me… I want to make this clear… I do NOT believe in tearing down statues to men that were an integral part of our history… And so I was so distraught and angry when I read that in NYC they took down a statue of Thomas Jefferson…  Shame, Shame, Shame… 
And thanks to Tom Woods, who posted this in his letter on Friday, it’s a little history on Thomas Jefferson: “ Thomas Jefferson co-sponsored a 1769 bill to abolish slavery in Virginia, wrote the first draft of the law that banned slavery from the Midwest, called for and signed the law that abolished the international slave trade, wrote the most influential antislavery book in American history, drafted a bill (which failed by one vote in Congress) that would have banned slavery from most of today’s Deep South, and wrote the part of the Declaration of Independence that says “all men are created equal”
These people that think that they know all, and take down statues, make me sick… And that’s all I’ll say about that!
And finally… The St. Louis Post Dispatch ran an article on Thanksgiving showing the restaurant ads for Thanksgiving dinner in 1972…. You could get a full Turkey dinner with stuffing and all the trimmings and a piece of pumpkin pie, for….. The whopping amount of $3.25…  We’ve come a long way from those days, now haven’t we? These days you probably wouldn’t be able to buy a slice of pumpkin pie for $3.25…  
I have some info on the new variant that spreading in S. Africa and how it affected the markets on Friday in the FWIW section today, compliments of Ed Steer… 
On Friday of this week we will hold the Jobs Jamboree for November… And I guess we have to count the seasonal workers for the Christmas shopping season in these numbers, but the thing I can’t get my arms around is the gigantic jobs creations each month, when on the other hand they are calling this the “Big Resignation”, with people quitting jobs left and right, and businesses having to close or shorten hours because they can’t find workers…
Like I said above, this week’s Data Cupboard is pretty empty most of the week… Like today’s offering is just the Pending Home Sales report… Nothing to write home about for sure…
To recap… The dollar buying stopped on Friday, as a new COVID Variant spread throughout S. Africa, and spooked the markets with stocks getting sold, Oil getting sold, and the dollar getting sold… Investors bought bonds, for some reason unknown to the well educated, and Gold found some buyers in very light volume… Chuck goes out and puts some things down that are bothering him, and are you ready for a Jobs Jamboree?
For What It’s Worth… OK, I told you that I took this from Ed Steer’s letter, and it’s a blog posted by Doug Noland, of whom Ed thinks highly of, and so that means I do too! This article about the Omnicron variant’s effect on the markets can be found here: Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Black Friday
Or, here’s your snippet: “I posted a link Thursday morning to a Bloomberg article, “New Coronavirus Variant a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa.” The seemingly small outbreak generated minimal media attention. Within 24 hours, however, global markets were in a tailspin, with Crisis Dynamics gaining critical momentum. The World Health Organization Friday in an emergency meeting designated the new B.1.1.529 – “Omicron” – a “variant of concern.”
Market reaction was swift and, in many cases, brutal. Pundits suggested panicked markets were overreacting. There is as yet no evidence of more severe symptoms from Omicron, and South Africa’s early recognition and communication offer the possibility of more successful global containment efforts. The U.K. and European Union moved quickly to restrict travel from South Africa, followed by Singapore, Japan, the U.S., Canada and others.
Once again, the wily Covid virus boasts ghostly timing. Omicron barges in with de-risking/deleveraging and global Crisis Dynamics attaining pivotal momentum. And with contagion rapidly enveloping the emerging markets (EM), disaster strikes for the vulnerable South African domino already in line for trouble.
The South African rand this week sank 3.4%, increasing 2021 losses to 9.8%. South African 10-year yields jumped 19 bps Friday (high since April 2020), boosting the week’s yield spike to 43 bps. South African CDS Friday surged 25 (43 for the week) to 252 bps – the high since March.
An index of EM CDS surged 19 Friday – the largest one-day rise since September 2020 – to 221 bps, the high back to October 2020. EM CDS surged 34 for the week, the biggest weekly gain since September 2020. Friday saw sovereign CDS surge 17.5 in Brazil to 268 bps (high since June 2020), 17.5 in Colombia to 218 bps (May 2020), and nine in Chile to 99 bps (May 2020). For the week, CDS jumped 26 bps in Brazil, 32 bps in Colombia, 27 bps in Mexico, and 11 bps in Indonesia.
The last thing Turkey needed was a stiff forearm shove toward a full-fledged financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira sank another 2.8% Friday, pushing losses for the week to 8.9% – for the month to 22.1% and for 2021 to about 40%. Turkey’s 10-year (lira) yields spiked 80 bps this week, trading above 20% for the first time since May 2019. Turkey CDS surged 28 Friday (58 for the week) to a one-year high 504 bps. For a country with a population of 84 million – that saw living standards and expectations inflate right along with its Credit Bubble – the collapse is turning increasingly desperate.
Mexico is another key EM domino – with self-inflicted wounds placing it directly in the line of fire.”
Chuck again… Yes, I read this past weekend that Turkish citizens are dumping their currency and using U.S. dollars instead… That to me is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, but like I said above, to each his own…
Market Prices 11/29/2021: American Style: A$ .7147, kiwi .6817, C$ .7852, euro 1.1289, sterling 1.3346, Swiss $1.0814, European Style: rand 16.1676, krone 9.0508, SEK 9.1148, forint 326.56, zloty 4.1605, koruna 22.7419, RUB 75.40, yen 113.58, sing 1.3685, HKD 7.7993, INR 75.00, China 6.3920, peso 21.87, BRL 5.6083, BBDXY 1,187.22, Dollar Index 96.20, Oil $71.68, 10-year 1.54%, Silver $23.34, Platinum $977.00, Palladium $1,868.00, Copper $4.39, and Gold… $1,794.30
That’s it for today… Congratulations to the St. Louis University Billikens soccer team, who have advanced to the Quarterfinals of the college soccer tournament.. . They had to travel to Duke and play the Blue Devils, but they prevailed 4-3… And remain undefeated this year! Saturday’s college football games were something for sure! Very exciting games, and a spanner was thrown into the works of the college playoff committee… I attended a “Movember Party” on Saturday… It was a fundraiser for Prostrate Cancer… Thanks for the invite Duane and Dane! Well, we turn the calendar over to a new month on Wednesday… My most disliked month will come to an end, thankfully! We had another couple of days of warmer weather this past weekend, so my dislike of cold weather is getting a break… Rosemary Clooney takes us to the finish line today with her version of the song: Let It Snow… . and that reminds me of one of my fave movies of all time: White Christmas… Ok, I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!
Chuck Butler
Creator & Editor of:
A Pfennig For Your Thoughts

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