A Pfennig For Your Thoughts November 30, 2021 * Currencies & Metals get sold on Monday… * Is There a shortage of physical Silver? Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It appears that we’re in for a week of warmer than usual weather this week… I sat outside to read for about an hour yesterday, it was chilly, but the sun felt warm… Tomorrow we turn the calendar to December… And with December comes, not only Christmas and New Year’s Eve, but also Chuck’s annual winter vacation! YAHOO! Not to worry, it’s not going to start until December 17th, and will end on December 27… I plan to write my usual Christmas Pfennig, so look for that while I’m on vacation… My wife asked me, how does one go on vacation when they are retired? Ahhh, grasshopper, I said, I still work every day doing reading
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A Pfennig For Your Thoughts
November 30, 2021
* Currencies & Metals get sold on Monday…
* Is There a shortage of physical Silver?
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It appears that we’re in for a week of warmer than usual weather this week… I sat outside to read for about an hour yesterday, it was chilly, but the sun felt warm… Tomorrow we turn the calendar to December… And with December comes, not only Christmas and New Year’s Eve, but also Chuck’s annual winter vacation! YAHOO! Not to worry, it’s not going to start until December 17th, and will end on December 27… I plan to write my usual Christmas Pfennig, so look for that while I’m on vacation… My wife asked me, how does one go on vacation when they are retired? Ahhh, grasshopper, I said, I still work every day doing reading and research… She thought she was being a smarty pants, but I stopped that! HAHAHAHA The Al Daniels Holiday Jazz Piano group greets me this morning with their version of the song: Have Yourself A Merry…
Well, when I left you yesterday, Gold & Silver were up slightly to start the day, but that didn’t take long to end, and the dollar had been bought throughout the night in the overnight markets, and that buying stopped in the U.S. session yesterday… The dollar didn’t get sold either… it did nothing all day, and just drifted on the open ocean… It was a real “nothing” day in the markets that I get giddy about… For the record, Gold closed down $7.30 to end the day at $1,785.50, and Silver closed the day down 21-cents to end the day at $22.98…
That’s a pretty paltry number attached to Silver isn’t it? What the price manipulators have done to the metals, especially Silver, has been murderous… I don’t use that term lightly, but they pretty much have scared any investor in these metals into either 1. Not buying, or 2. Selling with fear of further drops… I would really like to line these guys and gals up and string them from their toes, and leave them in the cold! But… It’s the Christmas season, so I’m not supposed to have these kinds of thoughts… But I can’t help myself! I guess some coal in my stocking is in my future, eh?
Stocks rebounded from that huge loss on Friday and Bonds continued to get bought… By whom, is anyone’s guess… Prior to tapering, you could have said that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel was behind the buying and you would have been correct most of the time. But supposedly they aren’t in the bond buying mood these days, so who’s buying these bonds at negative “real yield”? The Treasury’s 10-year yield dropped from 1.54% yesterday morning to 1.50% at the end of the day… So, what these people are saying is that interest rates in the next 10 years are not going to rise… Are they crazy? Disillusioned? So, what will it be door 1, 2, or 3? Johnny? Thank you for playing there’s nice parting gift for you at the door!
But wait! We have a Winner! The well respected economist, David Rosenberg, had this to say about the bond rally on Twitter: “Everyone is wondering why Treasuries are performing so great but bond rallies always happen after the net speculative short position gets as high as today – 243k contracts – the sharpest negative bet against the 10-yr T-note since Nov/19. The shorts have exhausted themselves.” – David Rosenberg on Twitter…
So, maybe it wasn’t a lot of bond buying for dummies going on, but short covering instead, which if that is what caused the rally, then yields should turn right around and head higher again soon… But I still contend that there is a lot of bond buying by dummies going on…
In the overnight markets last night… Well, the dollar has gotten ambushed overnight… The BBDXY, which ended yesterday at 1,187.38, has dropped to 1,182.54 early this morning… The euro is well above the 1.13 handle once again, and Gold is up $10 in early trading… Silver is down another 10-cents this morning… And there was more bond buying overnight, with the 10-year’s yield falling to 1.44%… And I just saw come across the screen that the stock index futures are down BIG… That doesn’t bode well for a stock market rally today…
It seems that traders and investors are more scared of the Omicron variant than the CDC or WHO…
In, friend, Dave Gonigam’s 5 Minute Forecast yesterday, he put down a thought on the Fed’s Minutes that were released last Wednesday, so here’s Dave: “The gist was a way-too-late acknowledgment that “Golly gee, inflation isn’t receding in the way we expected a few months ago.” Thus, we’re told some of the Fed pooh-bahs advocated a faster pace of “tapering” back on the Fed’s bond purchases — beyond the $15 billion a month taking place now”
Chuck again… Can you believe that there are still economists that are still saying that we are in deflation and not inflation? And some that just won’t admit they were wrong about inflation… But admitting you were wrong now, is a lot like the guy who’s main objective was to drain the swamp, but finds himself up to his rear in alligators!
Last week I made a point of saying that I never believed the Gov’t’s explanation of the assassination of President Kennedy… And now I read the Oliver Stone, has made a new documentary about the whole thing… Showtime, it airing it… I don’t get Showtime, as I’ve said before I don’t like paying extra for stations… Eventually it will be a YOUTUBE, and I’ll watch it then…
Well, there’s nothing to fear here folks, the medical people tell us that the new COVID Variant, Omicron, isn’t to be feared ala the Delta variant… Now, they’ve got me worried… Because it was these same people that told us in March 2020, we would flatten the curve with the shut down in two weeks… UGH! OK… the markets seemed to be over their worry about the variant, but then they’ve been over it since the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel started their stimulus, and the Gov’t began sending out stimmy checks… But that was yesterday, today, it seems the variant is on the market’s collective minds… Hmmm.. C’MON pick a lane!
Oh, and one more thing about Silver… The U.S. Mint announced that the minting of the Silver Eagles for 2021 was complete… To that, Ed Steer, had this to say in his letter today, “Well, dear reader, this is awfully early for them to be cutting off yearly production. Normally it ends about ten days or so into December. But with physical silver in such short supply, I’m sure that the order came down from someone inside the U.S. Treasury to put a stop to it early…” – Ed Steer
And that, my friends is a great example of the price manipulation, and we can go back to high school economics… Shortages = price increases… But what has Silver done lately? It’s gotten sold… nearly every day… I know I’ve shared this with you before, but it’s so appropriate here… My dad taught me long ago, that there’s no such thing as a shortage, it’s merely something that’s in need of a price adjustment…. So… when’s the price adjustment upward coming for Silver? Only the Shadow Knows…
The U.S. Data Cupboard is still pretty empty today, with just the Case/ Shiller Home Price Index (HPI), and the stupid Consumer Confidence report this month… I expect that the HPI will continue to show increases… Remember what I told you yesterday, that the brunt of the data prints will come at the end of the week, with a Jobs jamboree… which right now has a forecast of 581,000 jobs created in November…
To recap… The dollar did little yesterday, as it didn’t get bought or sold, and ended the day up only because of the upward move in the overnight markets… Gold & Silver were sold once again, there’s just no safe days for the metals from the price manipulators… Chuck goes bananas on bond buyers only to learn that the bond buying was short covering, per David Rosenberg… And the markets shrugged off the new COVID Variant, Omicron… Doesn’t that just make you a little nervous, considering how wrong the authorities have been with all of this? In the overnight markets the dollar got sold Big time, and stock index futures are down BIG this morning, so maybe, just maybe, someone is scared of the new variant!
Before we head to the Big Finish today, longtime readers know how I feel about education in colleges today…. And it has filtered over to our evening news programs… The Battle as I see it going forward in the U.S. is going to be between those who learned how to think versus those who were taught and dutifully learned what to think, with the latter of the two combatants coming from today’s colleges, and probably High Schools now too… My oldest son, Andrew, is a high school educator, and he tells me that in his school, they still require kids to think on their own… My daughter, Dawn, is a kindergarten teacher, so she doesn’t have to deal with anything but the ABC’s and teaching kids to keep their hands to themselves!
I really do feel badly for these youngsters that have had someone else do their thinking for them… Sure, they thought that was a good deal, the less they had to worry about, but they didn’t what they didn’t know was that their ability to think for themselves, and call out things that are wrong, never came to them… So, now they watch the news, listen to their professors and act accordingly… These, youngsters are tomorrow’s leaders, unfortunately!
For What It’s Worth… Egon Von Greyerz, and Ronni Stoeferle, sit down to discuss Gold’s position in the future of finance… Of course I’ve explained over the years that Gold is a store of wealth, but it may be become even more than that considering all the rot on the world’s vine right now. Part 1 of this article can be found here: Part I: All Taboos Broken—von Greyerz & Ronni Stoeferle Discuss Gold’s Role in a Changing Financial System – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland
Or, here’s your snippet: “As two of the world’s leading authorities on precious metals, von Greyerz and Stoeferle offer invaluable insights on the key issues related to precious metal investing in the backdrop of central-bank-driven market forces.
Egon and Ronni discuss their individual journeys toward recognizing the timeless, paramount, yet oft ignored, role that gold plays in intelligent wealth preservation and risk hedging in a market landscape that is becoming increasingly centralized. As Ronni observes, real capitalism requires failure, or what the Austrian School of Economics would describe as “constructive destruction.” Today, however, central banks have “broken all taboos” to provide instant liquidity whenever the market begins to crack.
Such “support,” which will likely include direct equity purchases and yield-caps by central banks, can buy markets more time, but such measures only make the end result far more perilous. As Egon reminds, the recent “Fed taper” was essentially a “fake taper.” Whether that is understood by the markets, however, is another matter, and Ronni discusses the risks and optics of “tapering” into a weak economy.
As for rate discussions in the backdrop of rising inflation, each discuss the conundrum central banks have placed themselves. The bottom line: It’s too late. There is no way to have a “Volker-like” rate hike in a world saturated in debt. A re-set of the monetary system is thus historically inevitable. This transition phase makes gold ownership essential. Ronni Stoeferle strongly believes that gold will play a monetary role again.
As to currencies, Egon bluntly addresses the central bank failure in allowing global debt levels to surpass $300T. History confirms the currency debasement needed to “cover” that debt points to gold.
As monetary policies reach an exhaustion point, fiscal policies (i.e., deficit spending) are becoming the newest drug for hubris-infected political actors forever seeking to outlaw recessions. All these stimulus packages, of course, require money, most likely to be in the form of CBDC. This raises numerous civil and economic concerns, as central bank money increases central bank controls over individual spending.”
Chuck again… Yes, I know the snippet is very long today, but the article is even longer, and I wanted to get it in the letter as much as I could! Check out the link above for more very intellectual and well thought out discussion between these two gentlemen…
Market Prices 11/30/2021: American Style: A$ .7133, kiwi .6822, C$ .7825, euro 1.1355, sterling 1.3345, Swiss $1.0893, European Style: rand 16.0413, krone 9.0565, SEK 9.0605, forint 323.17, zloty 4.1172, koruna 22.4921, RUB 74.74, yen 112.89, sing 1.3668, HKD 7.7971, INR 75.05, China 6.3845, peso 21.61, BRL 5.5837, BBDXY 1,182.54, Dollar Index 95.76, Oil $68.25, 10-year 1.44%, Silver $22.88, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $1,892.00, Copper $4.38, and Gold… $1,795.80
That’s it for today… Well, I guess having an undefeated season so far this year, doesn’t mean you get to play the tournament’s games at home! The St. Louis Univ. Billikens soccer team will have to travel next to Washington to play in the Semifinals… UGH! Our Blues play the first of a home and away series with Tampa Bay tonight… They play 82 regular season games, and have 32 Teams, I really don’t get why they have to play back-to-back games… Lots of birthdays in the month of December, I hope I can remember them all… There’s one I know I won’t forget, and that’s Kathy’s Birthday, which is the day after Christmas! And then once Christmas is over, it’ll be time to head south for the winter… I’m ready to go now! And it’s not even as cold as it could be! Jack Jezzro and Friends take us to the finish line today with their bossa nova sounding version of the song: Toyland… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday, and please Be Good To Yourself!
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A Pfennig For Your Thoughts