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Is America Facing Stagflation?

Summary:
Lyn Alden and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program. Michael sees a layered but significant equity bear market. In the near term, US Treasuries and gold will benefit. But as deficits surge, inflation rises forcing the Fed to fund nearly all of the Treasury needs. Confidence will be lost in the Fed and Treasuries will join equities and other asset classes into a bear market. Michael sees prospects for a 1970s-style stagflation when double-digit inflation was joined by very high unemployment rates.  Lyn just wrote a paper titled “The Ultimate Guide to Inflation” in which she describes various forms of inflation. What does she think of Michael’s stagflation view or Alasdair Macleod’s view of a parallel between the Mississippi Bubble disaster and the Fed’s need to print money

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Lyn Alden and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week’s program.

Michael sees a layered but significant equity bear market. In the near term, US Treasuries and gold will benefit. But as deficits surge, inflation rises forcing the Fed to fund nearly all of the Treasury needs. Confidence will be lost in the Fed and Treasuries will join equities and other asset classes into a bear market. Michael sees prospects for a 1970s-style stagflation when double-digit inflation was joined by very high unemployment rates. 

Lyn just wrote a paper titled “The Ultimate Guide to Inflation” in which she describes various forms of inflation. What does she think of Michael’s stagflation view or Alasdair Macleod’s view of a parallel between the Mississippi Bubble disaster and the Fed’s need to print money to buy Treasuries in order to maintain a false sense of Treasury market value? If she agrees with neither view, what does she think is the most likely scenario we face in this increasingly unstable market environment?  As usual, Michael also gives an update on what his Momentum Structural Analysis is telling him about the markets.

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Is America Facing Stagflation?Lyn Alden’s background lies in the intersection of engineering and finance.

Ms. Alden has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, with a focus on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility and has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Forbes, Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, Huffington Post, and elsewhere. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.

Her website (https://www.lynalden.com/) provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, options, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation.

Is America Facing Stagflation?Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, NYC. He studied under David Johnson, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980’s Oliver began to develop his own momentum-based method of technical analysis. In 1987 Oliver, along with his futures client accounts (Oliver had trading POA) technically anticipated and captured the Crash. Oliver began to realize that his emergent momentum-structural-based tools should be further developed into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992 he was asked by the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year Oliver shifted from brokerage to full-time technical research. MSA has provided its proprietary technical research services to financial and asset management clients continually since 1992. Oliver is the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism. 

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