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Trump2020 Landslide – By the Numbers

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A popular Twitter hashtag is #Trump2020Landslide. Is this wishful thinking or a real possibility? Let’s look at the electoral landscape over the next 9 months. As an initial caveat, understand the difference between confidence and overconfidence. The former is a realistic expectation going forward of favorable electoral winds based on a thoughtful analysis. The latter is thoughtless and dangerous based on emotion and desire, rather than data and realism. Republicans learned this lesson during the George HW Bush presidency. Bush enjoyed an 89 percent Gallup job approval in February 1991 after US victory in the Persian Gulf War. A little over a year later the bottom fell out after Bush reneged on his campaign promise, “Read my

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A popular Twitter hashtag is #Trump2020Landslide. Is this wishful thinking or a real possibility? Let’s look at the electoral landscape over the next 9 months.

As an initial caveat, understand the difference between confidence and overconfidence. The former is a realistic expectation going forward of favorable electoral winds based on a thoughtful analysis. The latter is thoughtless and dangerous based on emotion and desire, rather than data and realism.

Republicans learned this lesson during the George HW Bush presidency. Bush enjoyed an 89 percent Gallup job approval in February 1991 after US victory in the Persian Gulf War. A little over a year later the bottom fell out after Bush reneged on his campaign promise, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” nudging the economy into a recession. In July 1992, his approval rating was an anemic 29 percent. Welcome, President Bill Clinton.

Could something similar befall the Trump reelection efforts? Certainly. The economy is strong, but economies are cyclic, and recessions inevitably occur. The media can’t destroy Trump as they didn’t create him. Big media has been shooting spitballs at Superman Trump, everything bouncing off him and smacking the media in the face.

The only way Trump could lose his loyal base of support is through his own actions. If Ruth Bader Ginsburg left the Supreme Court, with or without a pulse, and Trump nominated uber-liberal Lawrence Tribe as her replacement, he would lose his base. If he began tearing down the wall rather than building it or signed on to Medicare-for-all or the Green New Deal, then he would suffer and same fate as George HW Bush, but that’s as likely as Bernie Sanders denouncing communism in favor of capitalism.

What do the numbers say after President Trump’s marvelous week of the Iowa caucuses, impeachment acquittal in the Senate, the State of the Union address, and increasing Democrat chaos and confusion?

Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster predicting the 2016 presidential election outcome, tracks presidential approval by day and by president. On February 12, in their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump’s total approval sits at 50 percent, a point higher than Obama exactly 8 years ago when he too was facing reelection.

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