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JCT Estimate on Tax Plan

Summary:
[EDIT: I dug up my own post; mystery solved. I explain at the end.] John Cochrane links to the new JCT estimate on the distributional consequences of the tax package. Here’s Cochrane: Bottom line: No change. Income categories are paying almost exactly the same share of federal taxes as before. Millionaires actually pay a tiny bit larger share in the new bill. Given the distributional hue and cry, frankly, it is a surprise to me just how tiny — far below measurement errors — the changes are. Here’s what he means: I’m actually very surprised myself. Has anybody been tracking this debate carefully? I thought it wasn’t just the Tax Policy Center, but also the JCT, that guys like Krugman were using (a couple of months ago) to show how awful this was? Did the final

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[EDIT: I dug up my own post; mystery solved. I explain at the end.]

John Cochrane links to the new JCT estimate on the distributional consequences of the tax package. Here’s Cochrane:

Bottom line: No change. Income categories are paying almost exactly the same share of federal taxes as before. Millionaires actually pay a tiny bit larger share in the new bill.

Given the distributional hue and cry, frankly, it is a surprise to me just how tiny — far below measurement errors — the changes are.

Here’s what he means:

JCT Estimate on Tax Plan

I’m actually very surprised myself. Has anybody been tracking this debate carefully? I thought it wasn’t just the Tax Policy Center, but also the JCT, that guys like Krugman were using (a couple of months ago) to show how awful this was?

Did the final version change that much? Or are they measuring different things?

I am not certain that the above includes the estate tax stuff, but I think it does.

EDITED TO ADD: Okay I dug up my old post. Yeah, the very document Krugman used to excoriate the plan, says the same basic thing that Cochrane is referring to above. The difference is that Krugman was looking at the final year, when some of the stuff phases out.

Robert Murphy
Robert Patrick Murphy (born 23 May 1976) is an American economist, consultant and author. He is an economist with the Institute for Energy Research (IER) specializing in climate change and a research fellow with the Independent Institute, He was a senior fellow in business and economic studies at the Pacific Research Institute, and he is an associated scholar at the Ludwig von Mises Institute. In addition to economic subjects, Murphy writes about, and has presented an online video class in, anarcho-capitalism on the Mises Institute website. Murphy also has written in support of Intelligent Design theory and expressed skepticism of biological evolution.

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