Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution

2024-03-26

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" – Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they’re too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry

2024-03-20

It’s Fed Day: Danny Ratliff provides a preview in Lance’s absence; mortgage rates are pricing-out most buyers. Is your ex- worth more dead than alive? Taking a look at SS survivors’ benefits: There are some caveats. How to incorporate inflation hedging into your portfolio. Making buying choices to better manage inflation in household budgets. Why some are accessing 401-k funds (and what about those who do not have one?) Understanding target date funds; why they’re generally the default for fund managers. Watch for higher fees and internal expenses; not all funds are created equal. Financial Spring Cleaning in 401-k: watch fund compositions.

3:14 – Fed Day preview & Market Commentary
14:40 – Is Your Ex- Worth More Dead than Alive?
30:30 – How to Hedge for Inflation
44:40 – Understanding

2024-03-06

Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed’s blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a bubble? Correction this year is very likely; Bitcoin joined by Gold as a speculative asset. The proposed government match to 4-01-k’s: Nice idea, but few will be able to take advantage; and what about the unintended consequences? the effect of inflation on the economy. Why cap savings? IF the economy is doing so great, why do we feel so bad about it? The Hunger Games & the Kellogg’s boycott.

2024-01-19

(1/19/24) Richard and Danny debunk the just-concluded Davos World Economic Forum and the foolishness spewed therefrom, including "bucket-nomics." Davos, Schmavos. Markets have been wishy-washy to date. United Van Lines’ recent survey of moving to- and from- trends is an interesting trend to note. The benefits of guaranteed income in retirement; Why Ken Fisher hates annuities: "stocks solve every problem?" The right way/wrong way to use annuities: Doing the annuity math. The pure definition of "annuity: Check for Life. The problem with Pension-linked Emergency Savings Accounts (PLEASA’s).

2:54 – Bucket-nomics & Davos Commentary
14:08 – United Van Lines’ Moving Survey; The Benefits of Guaranteed Income
30:00 – The Right Way/Wrong Way to Use Annuities
44:17 – The Faulty Logic behind

2024-01-09

(1/9/24) Wall Street begins a new round of quarterly earnings, looking at the results of Q4; estimates for 2024 are allready falling. What are you really paying for earnings? Why we have to be in ETF’s, even though we don’t like them. There is evidence of an uptick in inflation this year. Markets miss achieving January Trifecta by .13%, despite tax gain selling pressure. Will January be similarly weak? We polled our viewers/listeners for their takes on what 2024 will hold: Polling the People includes commentary on S&P 500 Seasonality and bullish sentiment, and where the markets may end in 2024. There’s an expectation for negative returns, higher inflation, slower economic growth and Real GDP; higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and the odds for recession.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’

2023-12-19

(12/19/23) Markets are winding-down to the Christmas hoiday; trading volumes will be light. We’ve seen record inflows to S&P 500 ETF’s as markets have rallied = too much exuberance. Forgetting the basisc: Buy under-valued, sell over-valued. How the Dollar drives markets. Counting out the 12-days of Christmas: Why so many birds? Sell cash, buy stocks, as Powell pivots; how government intervention (the Fed) affects investor psychology: Did we get our money’s worth? Where did all that money go?? The disconnect of markets from the economy; market rescues funded on debt. Pre-market commentary; holiday spending: more money, less stuff; Lance’s weekend on the border; earnings preview: Shipping & freight commentary; don’t expect a big crash. Yet. Unexpected, exogenous events are catalysts of

2023-12-07

(12/28/23) Newly proposed rules for raising major banks’ reserve requirements are raising the ire of Bank CEO’s like JPMorgan/Chase’s Jamie Dimon. Boo-hoo. either get completely under government control, or exist as independent private business, and be allowed to fail without bailouts. Why the government wants to force banks to hold more reserves: Buy more bonds. Bitcoin: Why is Dimon so opposed? The alternative to banking. The difference between Bitcoin vs Blockchain; Crypto is the ultimate fiat currency, backed by nothing. Why Dimon should fear blockchain.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
Watch today’s show on our YouTube channel: