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The 10-Year Bubble: Why The Warnings Still Hold

Summary:
Lately, I’ve been hearing the criticism “you’ve been warning about this bubble for 10 years now! When are you going to admit you were wrong?!” Yes, I know it’s been seven years (I started warning about the current bubble in June 2011), but even warning about a bubble for ten years isn’t crazy at all – for an example of this, we only need to look to the U.S. housing bubble, which inflated from roughly 1997 until 2007. I believe that someone would have been completely justified for warning about this disastrous bubble for a full decade. Just imagine the kind of criticisms that would be leveled in the latter stages of the bubble in 2005, 2006, and 2007 at someone who had been warning about the U.S.

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Lately, I’ve been hearing the criticism “you’ve been warning about this bubble for 10 years now! When are you going to admit you were wrong?!” Yes, I know it’s been seven years (I started warning about the current bubble in June 2011), but even warning about a bubble for ten years isn’t crazy at all – for an example of this, we only need to look to the U.S. housing bubble, which inflated from roughly 1997 until 2007. I believe that someone would have been completely justified for warning about this disastrous bubble for a full decade. Just imagine the kind of criticisms that would be leveled in the latter stages of the bubble in 2005, 2006, and 2007 at someone who had been warning about the U.S. housing bubble since 1997! They’d probably want to hide under a rock, yet they would have been completely correct. I believe that the current bubble is no different.

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-its-right-to-warn-about-a-bubble-for-10-years/

David Stockman
David Alan Stockman (born November 10, 1946) is a former businessman and U.S. politician who served as a Republican U.S. Representative from the state of Michigan (1977–1981) and as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (1981–1985) under President Ronald Reagan.

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