Tuesday , June 22 2021
Home / Tag Archives: Chicago PMI

Tag Archives: Chicago PMI

US Futures Rebound After Disappointing Chinese, European Data

Yesterday's sharp Chinese selloff is now a distant memory after the BTFDers emerged, and this morning U.S. equity futures are once again levitating as the FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting, following an uneventful BOJ announcement on Tuesday morning which left all QE parameters unchanged. Asian stocks traded mixed steady while European shares climb. The key event overnight was the BOJ meeting, in which the central bank maintained QQE with Yield Curve Control and kept NIRP unchanged at...

Read More »

July Payrolls Preview: Smooth Sailing But Watch Out For Cars

At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped. Sellside expectations: UBS: 175K Barclays: 175K HSBC: 175K SocGen: 180K TD Securities: 190K Goldman Sachs: 190K Oxford Economics: 195K Fathom Consulting: 210K RBC: 220K The unemployment rate is expected to decline to cycle...

Read More »

Dollar, Bond “Carnage” Pauses; Global Stocks Rebound Led By Tech Shares

S&P futures rebounded shortly after the stronger than expected European CPI print, rising 0.3% to 2,426, as markets try to forget all about yesterday's brief 50% VIX surge and tech rout, which trimmed the seventh consecutive quarterly gain for the S&P 500 Index to 2.4%. Europe shares rose 0.4%, led by tech stocks, after a drop in Asian markets, as oil and the dollar gained. The action this week however, yesterday's equity fireworks notwithstanding, has been in dollar and bonds, where...

Read More »

Italy Bank Bailouts Send European, Global Stocks Higher; Gold Flash Crashes

S&P futures point to a higher open following gains in Asian markets supported by stronger commodities but mostly European bourses, which are sharply higher following the €17 billion bailout of the two Veneto banks in Italy, the biggest taxpayer funded bank rescue in modern Italian history, as well as Dan Loeb's activist campaign of the world's biggest food company, Nestle which sent the stock up 5%, and finally Germany's Ifo business climate index which hit new all time highs. Risk...

Read More »

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Rebounds; Yuan Soars

S&P futures are little changed this morning, while Asian shares rise and European stocks (+0.5%) are poised to snap a five-day losing streak amid a broad-based rally. The pound declined as better-than-expected manufacturing data failed to offset political risk before the impending election, while crude oil gained. Across Europe, all 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced (the index itself was up 0.5% in early trading), helped by media companies amid strength in the auto...

Read More »

April Payrolls Preview: “It Better Be Good”

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning. March Nonfarm Payrolls Exp. 185K, (Prey. 98K, Feb. 235K) US Unemployment Rate (Mar) M/M Exp. 4.6% (Prey. 4.5%, Feb. 4.7%) Average Hourly Earnings Exp. 0.30% (Prey. 0.20%, Feb. 0.20%) Payrolls...

Read More »

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US GDP; ECB & BOJ Meetings, And Lots Of Earnings

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report on Thursday and Q1 GDP on Friday.  It iweek is the busiest week of earnings season, with 40%  of S&P 500 equity cap reporting. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.  Further, as SocGen notes, this week, markets will digest the French election results, with data releases focusing on the strength of the euro area recovery. The ECB may signal upside risks to near-term growth...

Read More »

Payrolls Preview: Expect An Upside Surprise (Thanks To The Weather)

Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators. Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence explains that over the past decade, consensus has tended to overestimate the January payrolls gain, but it appears to have corrected this bias over the past...

Read More »

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality." As Goldman details, we forecast that nonfarm payroll growth increased to 200k...

Read More »

Why ‘Wishful Thinking’ Has Trapped The Fed

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Wishful Thinking The confusion at the Fed continues as Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams painted an upbeat picture of the U.S. economy in a speech on Tuesday. This, of course, comes despite recent disappointing data on both the employment and economic fronts. “The economy is in good shape and headed in the right direction. As a result, it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases,...

Read More »