Tag Archive: China

Capital Markets are Calm though Anxiety Continues to Run High

Overview: The risk that the war in Israel spreads remains palatable, and several observers have warned of the greatest risks of a world war in a generation. Still, the capital markets remain relatively calm. The US dollar is softer after closing last week firmly. The only G10 currency unable to post corrective upticks today is the Swiss franc. Among emerging market currencies, the Polish zloty has been boosted by the pro-EU election results, and...

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Dollar Steadies after Yesterday’s Surge, Oil Jumps Ahead of the Weekend while Yields Soften

Overview: The capital markets seemed to have an exaggerated response to the US CPI, where the headline rate, flattered by the rise in energy, rose by 0.1% in September than forecast. Rather than decline, the headline year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The core rate was as expected slowing to 4.1% from 4.3%. Next week's US data, including retail sales, industrial production, existing home sales, and the index of leading economic indicators...

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Greenback Consolidates Ahead of September CPI

Overview: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. It is confined to narrow ranges ahead of today's CPI report. The Russian ruble is the strongest of the emerging market currencies following the imposition of new capital controls, forcing many exporters to repatriate their foreign earnings. After posting a key upside reversal at the end of last week, gold continues to recover. It nearly $1883 so far today, the best level in more than two...

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Bonds Extend Recovery

Overview: Broadly speaking, the dollar's recent pullback was extended today but the momentum appears to be slowing, perhaps ahead of tomorrow's US CPI report. The Dollar Index slipped to its lowest level since September 25 before steadying. The greenback is mixed as the North American market is set to open. The dollar bloc and Swedish krona are the underperformers. The Swiss franc is the best, up about 0.2%, while the yen and euro are little...

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War in Israel Spurs Flight to Dollars, Yen and Gold, While Driving up the Price of Oil

Overview: There are three main developments. First, the market is digesting the implication of the US employment data, where the optics were strong (336k increase in nonfarm payrolls compared with 170k median forecast in Bloomberg and Dow Jones surveys) but some details were disappointing (like the third consecutive decline in full-time posts, seasonally adjusted). Second, Chinese mainland market re-opened after a six-day holiday). Chinese stocks...

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US Yields and Dollar Rise After US Government Closure Averted

Overview: The US avoided a government shutdown, barely, and this eased one of the headwinds that were anticipated. In turn, this is spurring new gains in US interest rates and helping underpin the dollar at the start of the new quarter. The 10-year Treasury is holding above 4.60% and nearing last week's high (4.68%). The two-year yield gapped higher and is near 5.10%. The high from September 21 was almost 5.20%. The Swiss franc is the only G10...

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Dollar Sets Back into Month- and Quarter-End Ahead of likely US Government Shutdown

Overview: The dollar's surge stalled yesterday, and follow-through selling has pressed it lower against all the G10 currencies today. The dollar-bloc and Scandis are leading the move. Month-end, quarter-end pressures, coupled with a likely partial shutdown of the government beginning Monday, and after key chart levels were approached or violated earlier this week, serving as a bit a cathartic event. The Swiss franc snapped a 12-day losing streak...

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Firmer Bonds and Stocks, but the Dollar Presses Ahead

Overview: The S&P 500 hit three-month lows yesterday, while the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell to a four-month low. New home sales fell to their lowest level in five years. The US federal government appears headed for a partial shutdown on October 1. Still, the greenback rides high. It is extending its gains against several G10 currencies, including the euro and sterling. The Swiss franc is moving lower for the 12th...

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Softer UK CPI Weighs on Sterling and Lifts Gilts, while Yen Slumps to New Low for the Year, Ahead of the FOMC

Overview: Softer than expected UK CPI has drawn attention ahead of the key event of the day, the FOMC meeting. The UK's CPI has spurred a dramatic rally in Gilts and saw sterling initially extend its recent losses, falling to new four-month lows before stabilizing. The swaps market sees less than a 50% chance of a hike by the Bank of England tomorrow. Meanwhile, even though US Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested conditions in which intervention by...

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The Canadian Dollar Shines in a Mostly Consolidative FX Market Ahead of the Flurry of Central Bank Meetings

Overview: Ahead of the flurry of central bank meetings, starting with the Federal Reserve and Brazil tomorrow, the dollar is largely consolidating in narrow ranges. The euro, sterling, and yen are trading slightly heavier, while the dollar bloc and Scandis enjoy a firmer bias. The Canadian dollar stands out as is trades at its best level since mid-August ahead of its CPI report and despite a diplomatic dispute with India and the failure of...

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Calm Before the Storm: Greenback Confined to Narrow Ranges

Overview:  With many central bank meetings in the days ahead, the dollar has begun the new week on a quietly and mostly in tight ranges, helped by a holiday in Tokyo. G10 currencies, outside of the Scandis are slightly firmer in European turnover. Emerging market currencies are narrowly mixed, but of note the 0.25% decline makes the Chinese yuan the weakest. The Mexican peso is extending its recovery into the seventh consecutive session. While...

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Heightened Speculation of an ECB Hike Tomorrow Fails to Lend the Euro Support

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the G10 currencies ahead today's August US CPI report. Even increased speculation that the ECB will hike rates tomorrow has failed to lift the euro, while a larger than expected contraction in the UK's July GDP pushed sterling briefly through last week's lows. The dollar rose to a marginal new high for the week against the Japanese yen, as the market seemed uninspired by the cabinet...

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In Uncoordinated Steps, Japan and China Help Slow Greenback’s Rally

Overview: The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted the world's third-largest economy may exit negative interest rates before the end of the year. This sparked the strongest gain in the yen in a couple of months and lifted the 10-year yield to nearly 0.70%. In an uncoordinated fashion, Chinese officials stepped their rhetoric and indicated that corporate orders to sell $50 mln or more will need authorization. This helped arrest the yuan's slide. The...

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Yuan Sulks in to the Weekend, While Finishing Touches are Put on the Dollar Index’s Eighth Consecutive Weekly Gain

Overview: The greenback is lower against most currencies today as it consolidates ahead of the weekend. The Dollar Index's eight-week advance is the longest since a 12-week rally 2014. The Chinese yuan is an exception. Its losses were extended today. Against the offshore yuan, the dollar traded above the onshore band, which is most often respected. Equities ae extending this week's slump. All the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region but India...

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US Dollar Punches Higher

Overview:  Disappointing data in Asia and Europe has sent the greenback broadly higher. The strong gains posted before the weekend were mostly consolidated yesterday when the US and Canadian markets were on holiday. The rally resumed today. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been hit the hardest (-0.7% to -1.25%) but all the G10 currencies are down. The Swiss franc and yen are off the least (-0.35%-0.45%), and the euro and sterling have taken out...

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China’s Measures Begin to Find Traction, US Employment Report on Tap

Overview: Beijing's seemingly steady stream of measures to support the economy and steady the yuan are beginning to produce the desired effect. The yuan is snapping a four-week decline and the CSI 300 halted a three-week drop. Some economists estimate that the bevy of measures may be worth as much as 1% for GDP. The dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the US employment data, which is expected to see the pace of job growth slow to around 170k. Of...

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Position Squaring Ahead of US Data Helps the Dollar Recoup Some Recent Losses

Overview: Position-squaring ahead of today's US personal consumption data and perhaps tomorrow's jobs report is giving the dollar a firmer profile against most G10 and emerging market currencies. The Scandis have been the hit hardest and are off 0.75%-0.85%. The euro and sterling about 0.35%-0.45% lower. The yen is the only G10 currency that is slightly firmer. The dollar-bloc is nursing small losses (0.10%-0.15%). Despite the firmer than expected...

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Market Awaits US Data and Leadership

Overview:  The dollar staged a major technical reversal yesterday, in a dramatic reaction to a considerably weaker JOLTs report than expected, spurring a large drop in US interest rates. And this is despite press reports that the participation rate in the survey is half of what was three years ago. We suspect the price action said as much about market positioning as it did about the data. The path to the US jobs data on Friday goes through...

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Still No Follow-Through Dollar Buying After Last Week’s Surge

Overview: The dollar was threatening to break higher at the end of last week, and the euro and sterling closed below key supports. However, so far this week, the greenback is consolidating and has not seen follow-through buying. The key data this week, US consumption and jobs, and the eurozone's CPI still lay ahead. The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone enjoy a firmer today. A 0.8% contraction in Sweden's Q2 GDP was not as deep as had been feared,...

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Dollar Consolidates as Market Considers Breakout and Rebuffs Beijing’s Latest Efforts

Overview: Many market participants sense an inflection point is near. The dollar settled last week beyond key levels against several major currencies, bolstered by higher short-term US rates. The market is aware that the Bank of Japan could intervene in the foreign exchange market with the trading near its best levels of the year, and the 10-year JGB yield grinding higher. Beijing cut the tax on equity transactions, will restrict IPOs, and urged...

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