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Tag Archives: Debt Ceiling

Divergence Drivers and the Dollar

The main thrust of our bullish US dollar outlook is the divergence in monetary policy trajectories. We do not think the divergence has peaked and anticipate it to persist through next year and into 2017.      Since the Federal Reserve finished QE3, the divergence has been driven by easing of policy by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and a broad number of high and medium income countries, including China. We expect the Fed to participate in the divergence by...

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Boehner Is Out: What This Means For Government Shutdown Odds And The Debt-Ceiling Fight

In the aftermath of John Boehner's surprising resignation announcement, the punditry has been scrambling to opine what this departure means for the odds of a government shut down, some saying the likelihood has increased, while others, such as Goldman, confident shutdown odds are materially reduced. The truth is likely in the middle, and while the odds of a government shutdown next week are reduced as a Continuing Resolution now appears more feasible, the probability of a broader shutdown in...

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It All Comes Down To This

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management, After months of speculation, debating and postulating, the Federal Reserve will hold their two-day Federal Open Market Committee confab to make their decision on raising the overnight "Fed funds" rate. Morgan Stanley postulates four potential outcomes. To wit: A Hawkish Pass (60% Probability): The Fed passes on liftoff in September, citing the recent tightening in financial conditions, while keeping the door open for...

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Weekend Reading: Rooting For The Bull?

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management, This past week has seen a continuation of market volatility unlike anything witnessed over the last several years. Of course, this volatility all coincides at a time where market participants are struggling with a global economic slowdown, pressures from China, collapsing oil prices, a lack of liquidity from the Federal Reserve and the threat of rising interest rates.  It is a brew of ingredients that would have already likely toppled...

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