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Tag Archives: Economic growth

Advice to libertarians and progressives

In this post I’ll offer a couple of suggestions to two groups that seem to be hurting their own cause. Let’s start with the progressives. The mainstream parties in much of Europe have recently presided over some very ineffective economic policies. Perhaps as a result, some right-wing, nativist, authoritarian parties have risen in the polls. One of the most successful is Italy’s Northern League, which is now proposing a “fiscal shock” including a 15% flat rate income...

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The Trump Economic Boom

As the two charts below show, it is far from sure that there is a Trump economic boom. Of course, we must remain open to surprises. What is perhaps most surprising at this point, however, is how certain Trump’s economic policies and policy attitudes haven’t wrecked the economy. Yet, let’s keep in mind that, contrary to Juan Perón or Nicolás Maduro, a US president, thanks God, does not yet run the economy, as much as he can try. We probably overestimate the power of...

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Peter Schiff: What’s Going on With the GDP?

The Commerce Department released the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth on Friday. It came in higher than expected at 3.2%.Somewhat surprisingly, the price of gold rose on the news and the dollar showed some weakness. The primary reason was presumably lower inflation. This means the Fed still has the excuse it needs to continue the Powell Pause.There was also some data in the Commerce Department’s report that reveals shakiness in that growth number. In fact, Peter Schiff said he thinks this...

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China’s growth—what do we actually know?

Tyler Cowen recently linked to a study of China’s economic growth, which suggests that official figures (roughly 8%) overstate the real GDP growth rate by about 1.8%/year between 2010 and 2016: Using publicly available data, we provide revised estimates of local and national GDP by re-estimating output of industrial, construction, wholesale and retail firms using data on value-added taxes. We also use several local economic indicators that are less likely to be...

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How much has Brexit uncertainty slowed growth?

While I did not think Brexit was a good idea, I also did not expect the vote to trigger a UK recession. Instead, I argued that it would slightly reduce the UK’s long run growth rate, and cited the steep fall in the pound as evidence for that claim. In my view, recessions in big diversified economies such as the UK are mostly caused by tight money, with supply shocks playing only a modest role. There have been occasional news stories about foreign investment in the UK...

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Happiness pessimist, economic agnostic

Bryan Caplan has a recent post on happiness and economic progress: Seven years ago, my mentor Tyler Cowen did an interview with The Atlantic entitled, “Why I’m a Happiness Optimist but Economic Pessimist.” His point: Though GDP growth has been disappointingly low for decades, the internet does give us tons of free, fun stuff. The more I reflect on the Paasche price index, though, the more I’m convinced that Tyler’s picture is exactly upside-down. At least in the First...

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What does it mean to speculate that growth is faster than we think?

Tyler Cowen has a new post that discusses the implications of under-measuring economic growth: Many people suggest that we are under-measuring the benefits of innovation, and thus real rates of economic growth are much higher than we think.  That in turn means the gdp deflator is off and real rates of interest are considerably higher than we think.  Someday we will all realize the truth and asset prices will adjust. Let’s say that view is correct (not my view, by the...

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Top 10 inbound vs. top 10 outbound US states in 2017: How do they compare on a variety of tax burden, business climate, fiscal health and economic measures? – Publications – AEI

AEI Top 10 inbound vs. top 10 outbound US states in 2017: How do they compare on a variety of tax burden, business climate, fiscal health and economic measures? US state-to-state migration flow data for 2017 became available recently from the Census Bureau and this is an update to an earlier post based on 2016 data that attempts to answer the question: What significant differences are there, if any, between America’s top ten inbound and top ten outbound states when they are compared on...

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How important is economic growth? And can we do much about it?

Tyler Cowen’s new book is full of interesting ideas, with a focus on the central importance of economic growth, which he views as the overriding issue for policymakers.  This claim is built on three components: 1.  Tyler accepts the broad conclusions of academic research on happiness, which generally show a positive link between psychological and economic well-being.  Tyler believes that greater wealth leads to greater happiness, especially when wealth is defined...

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Peter Schiff: The US Government Needs to Get Out of the Way (Video)

As we reported last week, China is dumping US debt. China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell for the third consecutive month in August. The Chinese shed another $6 billion in US debt, dropping its total holdings to $1.165 trillion. Over the last year, China’s holdings of Treasury bonds fell by $37 billion year-on-year.But China has debt problems of its own. Local Chinese governments have reportedly piled up about $5.8 billion in debt. An S&P analyst called Chinese debt “an iceberg with...

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