Tuesday , October 15 2019
Home / Tag Archives: Economic Methods (page 5)

Tag Archives: Economic Methods

Why Don’t You Say Things You Don’t Believe?

I had an interesting back and forth with a commenter on my previous post, "Giving Thanks." I could have proceeded further in the comments but his style of argument is important enough and widespread enough that I've decided to post about it in a separate post. Here's the part of his recent comment that I want to respond to:When I say individual wealth I am speaking of the explosion of wealth in the top 1...

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Roberts and McArdle on Internet Shaming and Online Mobs

This October 16 EconTalk episode with Bloomberg writer Megan McArdle is excellent on both sides. Some highlights, along with my comments, follow.McArdle: I'm down on hatred in general. I don't think I hate anyone that I've ever known. And, because, you know: we have, what? 70, 80 years? I'm in middle age now, and it's such a pitifully short period of time. And to waste any of it--you know, anger is...

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Econ as Anatomy

Biology teachers often start their courses by reviewing the scientific method.  Stripped down to essentials, this means:1. Formulate a hypothesis.2. Run an experiment to test the hypothesis.3. Tentatively accept your hypothesis if the experiment works; otherwise, go back to Step 1.This story isn't entirely wrong; genetics really does begin with Mendel's plant hybridization experiments.  If you thoroughly...

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Thoughts on the UMich Immigration Debate

Thoughts on my latest debate:1. Hans von Spakovsky was the most lawyerly opponent I've ever debated.  His first (and second) approach to almost any issue was simply to describe the law.  In most cases, he didn't even defend its wisdom or justice.  Instead, he simply exhorted people to obey the law or convince Congress to change it.2. Still, after a great deal of legal description, von Spakovsky finally shared...

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Tristan Caplan’s Tetlockian Glossary

This summer, I assigned Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting (see here, here, and here) to my homeschoolers.  They took to this masterpiece of political psychology like fish to water.  I'd already taught them about human beings' wacky mapping from language to quantitative probabilities, but these passages have really stuck with them:In March 1951 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 29-51 was published. ...

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Minimally Convincing

Two high-quality studies of the disemployment effects of the minimum wage are getting a lot of attention.  The first looks at Seattle.  Punchline:This paper evaluates the wage, employment, and hours effects of the first and second phase-in of the Seattle Minimum Wage Ordinance, which raised the minimum wage from $9.47 to $11 per hour in 2015 and to $13 per hour in 2016. Using a variety of methods to analyze...

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Balan on the Immigration Bet

The noble David Balan emailed me the following observations on our immigration bet.  With his kind permission:I do agree that Bryan has won our bet.  But I will commit the following violation of the Bettor's Oath. In the blog post that led to the bet, Bryan wrote:The upshot: When I hear that Obama plans to shield many millions of illegal immigrants from the nation's draconian immigration laws, I'm...

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Unfortunately, I Win My Obama Immigration Bet

Two and a half years ago, I made the following bet with Nathaniel Bechhofer:If, by June 1, 2017, the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, or Washington Post assert that one million of more additional illegal immigrants have actually received permission to legally work in the United States as a result of Obama's executive action since November, 2014, I owe Nathaniel Bechhofer $20.  Otherwise he owes me...

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Warren Bet

My long-time friend Ben Haller posted this prediction on Facebook:Elizabeth Warren on Bill Maher - man, she is really good. I hereby predict that she will be President in 2020... That's assuming she runs - but I think she will.I find this extremely unlikely, for the following reasons:1. As a matter of base rates, there are many Democratic candidates.  And unlike the last three elections, there's no obvious front-runner.  (Yes, Hillary was the obvious front-runner in 2008, even though she...

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Scott Alexander’s Self-Evaluations

I just learned that blogger Scott Alexander starts ends the year by scoring the accuracy of his numerous annual predictions: here are the results for 2014, 2015, and 2016.  Since he assigns probabilities to each prediction, Scott can graph his ex ante subjective probabilities against the ex post objective probabilities.  Here's his graph for 2016.  The red line shows perfect calibration; the blue line shows Scott's actual calibration.Contrary to Tyler, this is not "just another kind of...

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