Tag Archive: Euro

Global Stocks Rise On “Growth Optimism”, Ignore Political Turmoil; Dollar, Oil Creep Higher

2017-07-31

by

2017-07-31

Stoxx Europe, Aug 2016 - 2017
S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China’s July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations  of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and … Continue reading »

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, July 24 – July 29: Swiss Franc getting crushed

2017-07-30

by

2017-07-30

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 29
The Swiss franc was the only major foreign currency that fell against the dollar last week.  The 2.6% decline was the largest in two years.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, July 17 – July 22: Euro and CHF move upwards against Dollar

2017-07-23

by

2017-07-23

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 22
Both Swiss Franc and Euro were moving upwards against the dollar. So CHF gained 3% versus the dollar in the last month. CHF losses against the euro are smaller, around 1.3%.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, July 10 – July 15: CHF Winning against USD, but losing vs. Euro

2017-07-16

by

2017-07-16

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15
The Euro remained the strongest among EUR, CHF and USD during the last month.  The Swiss lost against EUR 1.5%, while it gained versus the dollar 0.75%.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, July 03 – July 08: Second Euro appreciation phase

2017-07-09

by

2017-07-09

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 08
The ECB appears to be preparing investors for a further adjustment of its risk assessment and a reduction of its asset purchases as they are extended into next year. This assessment has marked a new phase of an appreciating EUR/CHF rate. It followed the previous phase, the one with and after the French elections.  

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Draghi Moves Markets

2017-07-03

by

2017-07-03

In my last update two weeks ago I commented on the continued weakness in the economic data. The economic surprises were overwhelmingly negative and our market based indicators confirmed that weakness. This week the surprises are not in the economic data but in the indicators. And surprising as well is the source of the outbreak of optimism in the bond market and the yield curve.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, June 26 – July 01: Normalization Ideas Weigh on Greenback

2017-07-03

by

2017-07-03

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 01
A virus has spread across the markets as the first half drew to a close. Many investors have become giddy. The low vol environment was punctuated by ideas that peak in monetary accommodation is past and that the gradual process of normalization is beginning.

Read More »

Shrinkflation – Real Inflation Much Higher Than Reported

2017-06-29

by

2017-06-29

Shrinkflation
600 new words entered our official lexicon this week as the Oxford English Dictionary announced the latest new additions to their online records.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, June 19 – June 24: Stronger Franc with Fading Euro Enthusiam

2017-06-25

by

2017-06-25

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 24
Over the last month, the Swiss franc outpaced both EUR and USD. But the change is only little, the EUR fell by 0.60% and the dollar by 0.40%. The main reason for the stronger CHF is the fading enthusiasm after Macron's victory in the French elections and hence a weaker euro. Consequently SNB interventions are rising again.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update:

2017-06-24

by

2017-06-24

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, June 12 – June 17: Greenback Still Trying To Turn

2017-06-19

by

2017-06-19

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 17
Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR Rarely in the foreign exchange market is there a V-shaped extreme. Most of the time, the high or low is a process that is carved over time. Although the explanation of the dollar’s weakness here in H1 vary, we continue to believe that the longer-term cyclical rally, the third since … Continue reading »

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, June 05 – June 10: Sterling Leads Dollar Recovery

2017-06-11

by

2017-06-11

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 10
The US Dollar has lost 4% against the franc since the beginning of May, while the euro is down only 1%. Most important events in this week were the ECB meeting and the UK elections. The inability of the Tory Party to secure a parliamentary majority spurred a sharp decline in sterling.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 29 – June 03: Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data

2017-06-04

by

2017-06-04

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 03
While the Euro traded in the range between 1.08 and 1.09, the dollar declined by nearly 3%. The technical indicators warn that the US dollar is stretched, but the combination of disappointing auto sales and jobs report may deny it the interest rate support needed to facilitate a resumption of the bull market.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 22 – 27: Is the Dollar Going To Turn?

2017-05-29

by

2017-05-29

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 27
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

2017-05-21

by

2017-05-21

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, 20 May 2017
The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

2017-05-13

by

2017-05-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, May 13
The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, May 01 – 06: Seasonal Patterns and Yen Crosses

2017-05-07

by

2017-05-07

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
The Swiss Franc index gained 1.5% in the last month, the biggest part of it is from the last week. The trade-weighted indices the Fed tracks are updated monthly. The Bank of England calculates the effective exchange rate on a daily basis. It has not fallen since April 24.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, April 24 – 29: Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

2017-05-01

by

2017-05-01

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market. Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand. Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the crosses.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, April 17 – 22: Dollar Technicals Trying to Turn, but…

2017-04-23

by

2017-04-23

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 22
While the dollar index had another bad week with a 0.75% less, the Swiss Franc currency index could accumulate the corresponding gains. Main reason is that the EUR/CHF rose over 1.07.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, April 10-14: Swiss Franc loses against the Yen, but wins against Dollar

2017-04-16

by

2017-04-16

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
Last week the Swiss Franc improved against both euro and dollar, but - compared to its safe-haven counterpart Japanese Yen - it had a bad performance. We expect strong SNB interventions.

Read More »