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Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

“Yield-Curve Inversion” Trips Over the Long View

All bull markets come to an end, even the 35-year Great Bond Bull Market. The US Treasury 2-year yield crept up 3 basis points during the week, to 2.81% at the close on Friday, the highest since June 2008. In a month or two, as the fourth rate hike for 2018 and more rate hikes next year are getting further baked in, the 2-year yield will cross the 3% mark! Just two years ago, many soothsayers on Wall Street said this would never happen again – that the Fed, in fact, could never raise...

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The Economy’s Rotten Foundation: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 09.21.18

The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.Stock markets hit record highs this week. It’s yet another sign that everything in the economy is great! But there’s a rotting foundation nobody is talking about. In this episode of the SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey does. He also covers the latest goings on in the gold market, the...

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Mortgage Rates Head to 6%, 10-Year Yield to 4%, Yield Curve Fails to “Invert,” and Fed Keeps Hiking

Nightmare scenario for the markets? They just shrugged. But homebuyers haven’t done the math yet. There’s an interesting thing that just happened, which shows that the US Treasury 10-year yield is ready for the next leg up, and that the yield curve might not invert just yet: the 10-year yield climbed over the 3% hurdle again, and there was none of the financial-media excitement about it as there was when that happened last time. It just dabbled with 3% on Monday, climbed over 3%...

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Who Bought the $1.47 Trillion of New US National Debt over the Past 12 Months?

China, Japan, other foreign investors, the Fed, US government funds? Nope. Foreign private-sector investors and “foreign official” investors – central banks, governments, etc. – whittled down their holdings of US Treasury Securities by $21 billion at the end of  July, compared to a year ago, to $6.25 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s TIC data released Tuesday afternoon. Over the same period, the US gross national debt – fueled by a stupendous spending binge and big-fat...

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Peter Schiff: A Category Five Economic Hurricane Is on the Horizon

Saturday, Sept. 15, was the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Many people consider it the seminal event of the 2008 financial crisis.In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said as we look back at the anniversary, we should realize that the next crisis is going to be worse. In fact, the next economic hurricane is going to be a category five.As Peter noted, a lot of people think the biggest mistake regulators made in ’08 was allowing Lehman Brothers to go...

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Markets Increasingly Sure: 4 Rate Hikes in 2018

A distant possibility in early 2018 is making its way to reality. The markets no longer have any doubts whatsoever that the Fed will raise its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point at its September 25-26 meeting to a range between 2.0% and 2.25%. This will be the third hike in 2018. Its probability is now 100% according to CME 30-day fed fund futures prices (chart via Investing.com, red marks added): As is always the case, the closer the rate-hike date gets, the...

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Why the Fed Denied the Narrow Bank, Report 9 Sep 2018

It’s not every day that a clear example showing the horrors of central planning comes along—the doublethink, the distortions, and the perverse incentives. It’s not every year that such an example occurs for monetary central planning. One came to the national attention this week. A company called TNB applied for a Master Account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Their application was denied. They have sued. First, let’s consider TNB. It’s an acronym for The Narrow Bank. A so called...

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Peter Schiff: I Think This Is Going to Be the Perfect Storm for Gold

When the published an op-ed from a White House insider claiming there are people inside the Trump administration actively working to undermine the president, the markets shrugged it off. In fact, as Peter Schiff said in a recent interview on thestreet.com, the markets are shrugging pretty much everything off.Everything is bullish as far as investors are concerned. They believe the US economy is in great shape. According to President Trump, it’s in the best shape ever. This is the greatest...

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Is It 2008 2.0? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap 09.07.18

The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.Is this 2008 2.0?Gold and silver are certainly acting a lot like they did that year. And there are some interesting parallels between the debt crises facing some emerging markets today and the subprime mortgage mess in ’08. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about it....

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The Fed’s QE Unwind Hits $250 Billion

Here’s my math when this “balance sheet normalization” will end. In August, the Federal Reserve was supposed to shed up to $24 billion in Treasury securities and up to $16 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), for a total of $40 billion, according to its QE-unwind plan – or “balance sheet normalization.” The QE unwind, which started in October 2017, is still in ramp-up mode, where the amounts increase each quarter (somewhat symmetrical to the QE declines during the “Taper”). The...

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