Tag Archive: inflation

Swiss Franc and Swiss Economy: The Overview Questions

pictet long-term graph eur/chf, real trade

Before the upcoming SNB monetary policy assessment meeting on June 19th, rumors started the SNB could follow the ECB and set negative rates on banks' excess reserves. We would like to deliver the whole background, starting with the question why Swiss inflation has been so low in the past and why CHF always appreciated.

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The Best Contrarian Macro Investment: Russia?

2014-08-09

by George Dorgan

2014-08-09

We name thirteen macro-economic reasons why Russia is currently the best place for contrarian investments.

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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold

We establish a long-term view and history of the Swiss franc. We compare the franc with gold.

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Our Core Thesis

Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.3 percent

2014-06-16

by George Dorgan

2014-06-16

According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate has risen to 0.2% y/y – as for both the Swiss CPI standard and the European HICP standard.

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Global Inflation Spikes Up, Are You Sure About What You Are Doing Mr Draghi?

2014-06-04

by George Dorgan

2014-06-04

The European Central Bank (ECB) has the habit of reacting late. As seen in July 2008 and July 2011, the ECB is often the last major central bank to hike rates. They hike rates at the moment when others prepare for a recession or a significant slowing. Currently we are witnessing the opposite movement: The world is getting … Continue...

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Swiss Yearly Inflation Rate Overtakes First Eurozone Countries

2014-04-11

by George Dorgan

2014-04-11

swiss consumer price index, eurozone hicp harmonized consumer price index

According to Swiss Statistics the yearly inflation rate is at 0.0%, and the monthly rate is +0.4%. The Spanish CPI is already under zero at -0.2%, and the Italian one is at +0.3%, not to speak about severe Cyprus or Greek deflation . Still in February 2012, the difference between the Swiss and Euro …

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The Cost-Push Inflation Legend

cost push inflation, price level, real gdp

Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.5 percent

2014-01-10

by George Dorgan

2014-01-10

Another five months till Swiss inflation is higher? When the European economy starts to expand again, who will hike rates first, the SNB or the ECB? December Update According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate remained stable at 0.1% y/y, while the inflation measured by the European HICP standard was +0.3% y/y, slightly higher than … Continue reading »

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The Fed Will Remain Gold’s Strongest Supporter For Years

In the early 1980s the Fed stopped the wage-price spiral and destroyed the gold price. Today main-stream economists have discovered that rising company profits compared to stagnating wages could an issue for the U.S. economy. For us this implies that the ultimate Fed goal will be to increase wages and inflation. Consequently the Fed has become the biggest supporter of gold and silver prices.

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Written in Dec 2013: FX trade of the Future is EUR/CHF Short, Not EUR/CHF Long

Inflation Difference (HICP) between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows from 1.4 percent to 1.1 percent

2013-08-08

by George Dorgan

2013-08-08

According to Swiss statistics, the yearly change in the Swiss consumer price index has risen from -0.1% to 0%. The headline MoM figure fell by 0.4% due to the yearly sell-off in the retail sector. The difference between euro zone and Switzerland in terms of the European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP has … Continue reading »

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Abenomics Succeeding? Don’t Believe the Mainstream Media, Just Energy and Import Prices Are Higher

2013-07-26

by George Dorgan

2013-07-26

While the FT says: Abenomics is succeeding in bringing inflation back to Japan. The preferred core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food prices, rose a higher-than-anticipated 0.4 per cent in June (year-over-year), the highest reading since November 2008 and the first positive reading since April 2012. (The reading was flat in May). Overall inflation …

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The End of Swiss Deflation

2013-07-05

by George Dorgan

2013-07-05

The yearly change of the Swiss consumer price index has risen from -0.5% to -0.1%, the end of deflation is near. Swiss inflation measured with the European standard HICP has even improved to +0.2% y/y. Details

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Italian Retail Prices Remain close to Switzerland, Germany Far Cheaper

2013-06-16

by George Dorgan

2013-06-16

Disinflation Finally Starting in Italy The Swiss site preisbarometer.ch is run by the Swiss Consumer Association. Their price data shows that a food basket is 46% more expensive when compared between the German “Kaufland” shop and the Swiss “Coop”. Going to France into “Leclerc” gives you an advantage of 38% against Coop. However, for a …

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Swiss Inflation Rises, Services Up 0.6 percent YoY, Goods Swiss Origin +0.3 percent, Energy Tames

2013-06-06

by George Dorgan

2013-06-06

Switzerland Inflation Eurozone April 2013

Cheaper energy prices and long-lasting contracts help against inflation. Swiss inflation increased by 0.1% against April. According to Swiss Statistics, on a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.5%. Major reasons for lower figures were the 6.3% YoY decrease in energy prices, 4.5% YoY lower clothes and footwear price and technological improvements in communication that caused … Continue reading »

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Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?

High German Pay Rises: The End of the German Bunds Bubble

2013-05-30

by George Dorgan

2013-05-30

Yesterday’s German CPI has given a first insights of what is coming these years: German inflation. For years excessive risk averseness put pressure on German yields. Most recently, energy prices helped to push down inflation and on German yields possibly for a last time. But many ignore that the main reason for inflation are rising …

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The Inflation Lie? Why and When Inflation Will Come Back

The so-called "inflation lie" : money printing does not create inflation. The cyclical slowing in emerging markets shows that it actually did cause inflation, just not in developed economies yet.

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Swiss Inflation Unchanged, HICP Difference Euro Area to Switzerland Down to 1.6 percent

2013-05-09

by George Dorgan

2013-05-09

Swiss inflation unchanged in April against March. The inflation difference between the Euro area and Switzerland on a new low. While in early 2012 it was near 4%, if has shrunk now to 1.6%. Details

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