Monday , September 23 2019
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Tag Archives: Investing

Why The BLS Jobs Numbers Don’t Add Up

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to point to the monthly employment reports as proof of the ongoing economic recovery. Even the White House has jumped on the bandwagon as the President has proudly latched onto the headlines of the “longest stretch of employment gains since the 1990’s.” Yes, there has definitely been an improvement in the labor market since the financial crisis. I am not arguing that point. The financial...

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It’s Probably A Trap!

A BIT OF HISTORY Earlier this week, the market broke above 2080 on the S&P 500 pushing a breakout above the downtrend line that began last May. That breakout required a slight increase in equity risk allocations. Not surprisingly, I got a tremendous amount of push back this past week from individuals with comments like: “Makes me scared to be a bull when bears throw in the towel.”  I can certainly understand that sentiment. It would certainly seem that way since I have been extremely...

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The Great American Economic Growth Myth——-Real GDP Gains Since 1999 Even Lower Than 1930s

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. As I showed in my discussion of the Fed’s forecasts, these predictions have continued to fall short of reality. “Besides being absolutely the worst economic forecasters on the planet, the Fed’s real problem is contained within the table and chart below. Despite the rhetoric of stronger employment and economic growth – plunging imports...

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Weekend Reading: Sagacious Discombobulation

I noted in yesterday’s post that individuals, while still fully invested in the financial markets, are saying they are extremely bearish on the market. To wit: “Speaking of the Fed, the surge in the market over the last couple of days have many scratching their heads despite deteriorating economics, weak earnings and poor geopolitical news. Of course, given the series of emergency Fed meetings, the markets are currently beating on a much longer time frame to the next, if ever, rate...

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Stock Market Update——-A Bug In Search Of A Windshield

Editor Note: Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management.  He is a regular contributor to Real Investment Advice. On numerous occasions over the past year we’ve suggested U.S. equity valuations were expensive. Certainly the recent sharp rebound in share prices in the midst of declining earnings, lower earnings forecasts and slowing domestic and global economic growth has only...

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Bull Versus Bear Case—–What’s Lurking Beneath

  As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. Despite weakening earnings, which on an as reported basis are far worse than the rather manipulated “operating” levels currently suggest, the bulls have remained steadfast in their belief that prices are on a one-way trip higher. What all investors should remember is that it is what happens at the “top line” of income statements that is a true reflection of the underlying...

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The Costs & Consequences Of $15/Hour——Not Good!

What’s the big “hub-bub” over raising the minimum wage to $15/hr? After all, the last time the minimum wage was raised was in 2009. The argument for increasing the minimum is to create a “livable wage” for those working at that level. Given the amount of table pounding that has ensued after the current administration proposed increasing the minimum wage, you would have assumed that a vast majority of American workers were trapped at this horrifically low level of income. Let’s take a look at...

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Hard Evidence That Stock Buybacks Destroy Intrinsic Value

Editor Note: Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management.  He is a regular contributor to Real Investment Advice. The following research was jointly produced by: J. Brett Freeze, CFA of Global Technical Analysis and 720 Global 720 Global has written four articles to date on stock buybacks and the harm these actions will likely have on future corporate growth rates and the...

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Fed Levitation And The Lack Of Job Growth Ex-BLS Birth/Death BS

  Fed Levitation What is going on at the Federal Reserve? On Tuesday, Janet Yellen comes out and announces that despite inflation being on the rise and employment below 5%, she is not going to raise the Fed Funds rate 4-times this year, nor even two times this year, but rather most likely none. Of course, this “one and done” scenario is what I suggested back in December following the first rate hike given the ongoing deterioration in the underlying economic backdrop.  However, on Wednesday,...

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Mind The GAAP Gap—–Why Wall Street Analysts Always Get It Wrong

“ 80% Or Bust Not surprisingly, the recent sharp reflexive rally has brought the bulls out in full force as noted by a recent comment on my post earlier this week on “4% From The Highs:” “…by the time you get confirmation with the long term indicators above, you will miss out on 20 to 30% of the rally.” It’s a fair point if you are a short-term trader looking to time the market. I’m not. As a long-term investor, and specifically as a manager of “other people’s money,” I am much more...

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