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Tag Archives: Jobs

Joe Biden’s Economic Dumb-Guy Argument

President Joe Biden is running around trying to take credit for a “booming” economy. It’s the ultimate political dumb-guy argument.Politicians tend to play to the lowest common denominator and Joe Biden is no exception.In a social media post, Biden claimed credit for an improving labor market, comparing various jobs numbers today with the same data a year ago. “One year in, America is on the move again,” Biden exclaimed.If you take these numbers at face value – and you’re a dumb guy – you...

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December Jobs: All but One Category are Way Behind 12-Month Trend

November had been the weakest jobs report of the year until a meager 199k were announced for December. As shown below, over the last 18 months, only December 2020 was weaker. This was right when the Covid second wave was wreaking havoc and before vaccines became available to the public.This next chart compares the current month with the trailing 12-month average. Every category is lagging the 12-month average by a wide margin except for Construction. A few key takeaways:Construction was...

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That Was One Weird Jobs Report

That was one weird jobs report.The labor department released the November employment data on Friday. The numbers simply don’t make any sense. As one chief investment officer put it, “One of the weirdest reports I have ever seen.”One thing seems pretty certain. The labor market has not recovered, no matter how the powers that be spin the numbers.The headline number was extremely disappointing. The US economy added just 210,000 non-farm payroll jobs. It was the lowest level of job growth...

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Jobs Analysis: What if Leisure and Hospitality has Fully Recovered?

November was the weakest jobs report of the year, coming in at a paltry 210k, missing consensus expectations of 573k by a 363k. There were modest revisions upwards over the last two months of 8k and 15k for September and October respectively. Nothing to be excited about.This next chart compares the current month with the trailing 12-month average. A few key takeaways:Construction, Professional Business, and Manufacturing were above trendConstruction, in particular, was almost triple the...

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Peter Schiff: Gold Rally Indicates Sellers Are Exhausted

Despite the Fed announcing it will begin tapering QE and a better than expected jobs report, gold rallied on Friday. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said this is sign sellers are exhausted.According to the October non-farm payroll numbers, the US economy added 531,000 jobs, well above the projection of 450,000. The two prior months also saw significant upward revisions. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%. The one weak spot was labor rate participation, which remained at 61.6% instead of...

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Strong Jobs Creates Buying in Gold? Is All the Bad News Priced In?

October jobs came in at 531k, finally beating expectations with strength shown across the board. Furthermore, August and September were both revised upwards by over 100k. ‘Perhaps even more surprising is the early reaction in the gold/silver market. More on this below.This next chart compares the current month with the trailing 12-month average. A few key takeaways:Every category is above the 12-month average except for Government and Leisure/HospitalityMost categories are well above...

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A Messed Up Economy: Jobs Edition

Government policies – from shutdowns, to stimulus, to vaccine mandates – in response to the coronavirus pandemic have thrown the US economy completely out of whack. Looking at employment reveals just how messed up the economy has become.The number of Americans quitting their jobs surged to a record high in August. According to the Labor Department Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, job quits increased by 242,000 in August, pushing the total to a record 4.3 million. The...

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Peter Schiff: Stagflation Is Here!

We got the highly anticipated employment report on Friday. It came in far below expectations. But despite weak economic data, bond yields are rising, along with the price of just about everything. Meanwhile, a gold rally fizzled. Peter Schiff talked about it during his podcast, explaining just how badly the markets are misinterpreting the data. When you add up plunging bonds yields, strong oil, and weak economic data – that equals stagflation.According to the September Labor Department...

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Another Big Jobs Miss: All But Two Categories Are Below The 12-Month Trend

For the second month in a row, the jobs numbers in September came in well below expectations.The Labor Department reported an increase of only 194,000 jobs, well below the estimated 500,000. The big miss was similar to August’s report.Despite the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.8% from 5.2% and an upward August revision of 131,000 jobs, this is the weakest jobs report since January.This next chart compares the current month with the trailing 12-month average. A few key...

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Inflation Is a Thing! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spent most of his Jackson Hole speech continuing to try to convince everybody that inflation is transitory. As Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey points out in this episode, whether it is or isn’t transitory, inflation is a real thing that has a real impact on real people. In this show, he also breaks the news on the August jobs numbers and discusses taper talk.The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s...

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