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Tag Archives: Mathematical finance

How To Survive Today’s Bubbly Market

Authored by James Rickards via Bonner & Partners, To paraphrase one of the great gems of Wall Street wisdom, “Nothing infuriates a man more than the sight of other people making money.” That’s a pretty good description of what happens during the late stage of a stock market bubble. The bubble participants are making money (at least on a mark-to-market basis) every day. Meanwhile, the more patient, prudent investor is stuck on the sidelines – allocated to cash or low-risk investments while...

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A Gift From The Oldies

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at I bumped into a friendly bloke at my local gym last week. Jim is his name. Jim tells me he just started because, and I quote, "my doctor says I'm going to die unless I do something". Now, I assure you it doesn't take a doctor to figure this out. One glance in Jim's direction and you can tell that underneath all that weight there's a big struggling heart in there... just ready to explode. He was surprisingly frank and tells me it's so bad that he can...

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Eric Peters: Today’s Opportunities Include Negative Convexity, Complexity, Illiquidity, Leverage, Or All The Above

From the latest Weekend Notes by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management Anecdote “What are the odds we come across an opportunity in the coming 4yrs to earn 20%?” the investor asked his team. “High,” they answered. “The odds are 100%,” he said, having seen this movie a few times. “So our cost of capital is 5% per year (20% divided by 4yrs), plus the 1% we earn on cash,” he said. His team nodded. “Under no circumstances should we deploy capital unless it earns well more than 6% per...

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The Moment The Market Broke: “The Behavior Of Volatility Changed Entirely In 2014”

Earlier today we showed a remarkable chart - and assertion - from Bank of America: "In every major market shock since the 2013 Taper Tantrum, central banks have stepped in (even if verbally) to protect markets. Following the Brexit vote, markets no longer needed to hear from CBs as they rebounded so quickly that CBs didn’t need to respond." As a result, buy-the-dip has a become a self-fulfilling put. The immediate result of this dynamic has been two-fold: i) investors now buy every dip, or...

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Government Watchdog Warns Market Crash Risk Rising: “One-Sixth Of All Hedge Funds Are 15x Leveraged”

One wonders if the Fed ever reads the reports issued by the Office of Financial Stability, which does a surprisingly good job of laying out the risks facing the market at any one time, which incidentally are far greater than various Fed presidents would care to admit. If it did, it would learn from the just published annual report, that "market risks — risks to financial stability from movements in asset prices — remain high and continue to rise" and that "low volatility and persistently low...

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Jim Grant Interviews Alan Fournier: “Pension Funds Are So Desperate For Yield, They’re Systemically Selling Vol…”

In the latest installment of RealVision's interview series featuring Jim Grant, longtime publisher of Grant's Interest-Rate Observer, the newsletter publisher sits down with Alan Fournier, the billionaire founder of Pennant Capital, to discuss one of the most widely discussed topics across modern asset markets: Volatility - or rather, the systemic risks posed by not only the paucity of volatility in modern markets, but how risk parity and low-vol targeting strategies have created imbalances...

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Market Goes ‘Full Bitcoin’

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Market Review What the “heck” was that? This past week seemed to be the story of Christmas coming early. Earlier this week the markets surged higher on hopes that “Ole’ St. Tax Cuts” would soon be here. But that dream seemed to be short-lived on Friday, at least at the open, as General Mike Flynn seems to embody the “Grinch” trying to steal Christmas. But at the end of it all, not much actually changed. Well, except for the fact that...

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Eric Peters: “Today’s Central Bank Vol Suppression Will End In Spectacular Fashion”

After his provocative admission published earlier that he now checks "Breitbart daily and InfoWars too... You can no longer understand America unless you do", One River's CIO Eric Peters published the following anecdote revealing an earlier moment of his life, when as a currency trader, he learned a valuable lesson following the spectacular blow up of Europe's Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM, and why the lesson from some 25 years ago, leads Peters to conclude that "Today’s central bank...

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VIX Futures (Don’t) Breakout: a Slinky’s Story of Epic Failure

Volatility Index Futures (VX) VIX futures spiked up to 13.47 during the session before reversing 12% lower and closing back down at 11.88.  Today's 13.47 intraday high was just: 0.03 lower than the 11/15 swing high of 13.50, which is... 1.15 lower than the 10/25 swing high of 14.65, which was... 3.85 lower than the 9/05 intraday spike up to 18.50, which was... 0.50 lower than the 8/29 intraday spike up to 19.00, which was... 0.75 lower than the 8/11 swing high of 19.75, which was... 0.45...

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“It’s All One Single, Giant $22 Trillion Position”: How Market Risk Became Systemic Risk

As excerpted from Fasanara Capital’s “Positive Feedback Loops and Financial Instability: the blind spot of policymakers.” The next time a Fed chair or macroprudential regulator argues that “there is no leverage in the market”, send them this. QE and NIRP have two predominant effects on markets: (i) relentless up-trend in stocks and bonds (the ‘Trend Factor’), dominated by the buy-the-dip mentality, which encapsulates the ‘moral hazard’ of investors knowing Central Banks are prompt to come to...

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