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Tag Archives: Nominal GDP

For Stan Druckenmiller This Is “The Endgame” – His Full ‘Apocalyptic’ Presentation

Several days ago, hedge fund legend Stan Druckenmiller spoke at the Sohn Conference, delivering what may have been his most bearish fire and brimstone sermon yet, and in fact according to some buysiders who were present, its somber mood and lack of faux optimism was downright apocalyptic. And how can it not be when Druckenmiller said that while the Fed and policymakers have no endgame, markets do - hinting that one is rapidly approaching - and suggested that everyone should liquidate their...

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Jim Grant Asks When The World Will Realize “That Central Bankers Have Lost Their Marbles”

Authored by James Grant via Grant's Interest Rate Observer, April 15 comes and goes but the federal debt stays and grows. The secrets of its life force are the topics at hand— that and some guesswork about how the upsurge in financial leverage, private and public alike, may bear on the value of the dollar and on the course of monetary affairs. Skipping down to the bottom line, we judge that the government’s money is a short sale. Diminishing returns is the essential problem of...

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Gundlach Predicts “Trump Will Win”, Says “The Federal Reserve Has Basically Given Up”

In an interview posted on Swiss Finanz und Wirthschaft, Jeff Gundlach unleashes his deep ir, and in traditional style, offloads on both the Fed and all central banks, sayng that "negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever", adding that the Fed has given up both trying to normalize interest rates as well as trying to actually stimulate the economy: What you see is that the same pattern has been in place since 2012: Hope for growth in the new year that ends up being revised...

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Nomura’s Bob “The Bear” Janjuah: “The Question Is What Would Be Necessary For The Fed To Do QE Or NIRP”

The latest from Nomura's Bob "the bear" Janjuah Power of the Fed's words waning? I wanted to update my two earlier notes from this year, published on 7 January (link) and 4 March (link). The two specific drivers for this update are outlined below and are linked to each other and to the two notes referenced above: 1 – The rally off of the February lows in risk assets has been marginally stronger than I had earlier anticipated, but in particular has lasted a fortnight longer than I had...

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The World Has 6 Options To Avoid Japan’s Fate, And According To HSBC, They Are All Very Depressing

Last week, when looking back at consensus economist forecasts for Japanese growth as of 1995, we compared what the pundits thought would happen, and what actually did happen: the result was what may have been the worst forecast of all time, leading to a 25% error rate in just five years later. It also unleashed the start of Japan's three lost decades. But while laughably wrong economist forecasts are nothing new, a more troubling observation emerges when comparing the evolution of Japan's...

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Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time

When it comes to predicting the future, there has traditionally been a stealthy contest between economists and weathermen as to who is the worst predictor of coming events. Lately, there was some confusion when economists - this includes central bankers and market "strategists" -  tired of being humiliated in public for their terrible predictions, decided to become Monday Morning weathermen (ironically, none more so than those who competed with Groundhog Phil and lost) and blame their...

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“The Bounce Has Run Its Course” Bob ‘The Bear’ Janjuah Warns S&P Heading To 1700s

Nomura's Bob Janjuah warend in January that "the bubble implosion can't be fixed this time," and, as he explains in his latest note, he is pleased with all six of his key forecasts for 2016... In particular on Commodities, with his expectation that crude would trade below $30 (the price per barrel fell from $37 in early January to a low so far of $26 in February).   And on Rates, the 30yr UST yield fell from 2.95% in early January to a low so far of 2.49% in February,...

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“Everything’s Interconnected”

Everything happening today is in some ways interconnected: popularity of ‘non-establishment’ political candidates; ineffectiveness of central bank policy in lifting inflation; economic pessimism; weak capital spending (from handcuffed capitalism); and angst due to perceptions of inequality. Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann explains... Business investment and capitalism are being held back by a lack of visibility on what a future return might generate from an investment in a capital...

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This Is The Last Stage Before Recession

Submitted by Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk via Bawerk.net, In a recent article by Kessler Companies (hat tip Zerohedge) they correctly point out that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, have a tendency to accelerate as the US economy moves into a recession. Contrary to popular belief, the beginning of a recession is not deflationary but the exact opposite. As can be seen from the chart, consumer prices do indeed move higher into recessions as represented by the shaded areas. Why? The...

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“Everything Changes At Zero” – Investors “Obligated” To Fight The Fed

Submitted by Tim Price via SovereignMan.com, For the benefit of non-subscribers, there are two versions of the Financial Times newspaper. One of them is the hard copy edition, still printed on pink paper, an exact digital replica of which is available on the paper’s website to subscribers. The second is the website itself, at www.ft.com. The difference between the two is subtle, but crucial. In the formal, hard copy edition, ‘reader response’ is strictly edited and...

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