Sunday , September 22 2019
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Tag Archives: TOP ARTICLES

Unstoppable Negative Yields Suddenly Become Stoppable

Snapback Bloodletting in the Overripe Bond Market. This is the transcript from my podcast last Sunday, THE WOLF STREET REPORT: OK, so we’ve got ourselves one heck of a snapback in government bond yields, not just in the United States, but globally. And the negative-yield mongers that were out there for months, preaching their book and prophesying near-zero or negative yields even for the 10-year US Treasury – this includes hedge funds with algo trading strategies – they’re suddenly...

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Fed’s Powell: No Negative Interest Rates at Next Crisis

The Fed has different priorities than the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, et al. During the press conference today following the FOMC meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell was asked if and when the Fed would push its policy interest rate into the negative. Powell did not respond with his usual, “we will act as appropriate.” He had a real answer. For months, there has been clamoring from Wall Street and speculators, and from the White House, that the Fed should or would cut...

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Foreign Exchange Trading Soars to $6.6 Trillion a Day, US Dollar is Total King

Ginormous numbers, FX swaps and spot trades, USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, Australian & Canadian dollars… but where the heck is China’s CNY? It happens every three years: The Bank for International Settlements released its Triennial Central Bank Survey about the global foreign exchange (FX) and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, as it occurred in April. The numbers are ginormous, and get more ginormous with every survey, with trading volume measured in trillions of dollars per day....

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Drama in the Oil Markets, But This Isn’t 2007 Anymore

How the US shale boom changed the equation. If the attack on Saudi oil facilities had occurred in 2007, it would have caused chaos in the US economy. The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil-processing plant at Abqaiq and its second-largest oil field in Khurais on Saturday knocked out about 5.7 million barrels a day of output – about half of Saudi production and about 5% of global production. Saudi military officials told reporters on Monday that the preliminary investigation of...

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THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Snapback Bloodletting in the Overripe Bond Market

The 10-year US Treasury yield rips. Unstoppable negative yields become stoppable (11 minutes). Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate “beer money.” I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer mug to find out how: Would you like to be notified via email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? Sign up here.

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Light at End of Tunnel or Oncoming Train for the Goods-Based Economy?

What US Freight Shipments and Pricing Say About the Slowdown. Freight shipments within the US fell 3.0% in August 2019, compared to August 2018, the ninth month in a row of year-over-year declines, but it was only about half the rate of declines in May (-6.0%) and July (-5.9%), according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. The index tracks shipment volume by all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – of consumer and industrial goods but not of bulk commodities....

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The Unemployed Shadow Labor Force

“Does Everyone Who Wants a Job Have a Job?” Hidden “slack” in the labor market, wage increases, opportunity, and factors like ageism. Wolf Richter on This Week in Money, the Canadian show by HoweStreet.com (5 min): Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate “beer money.” I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer mug to find out how: Would you like to be notified via...

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WeWork IPO, the Straw that Breaks the Stock Market’s Back? Valuation Plunged by up to 79%

“They’re Going to Screw Up the Market”: Jim Cramer, on the moment-of-truth effects of the WeWork IPO. Much like the Fed, as some would say, Jim Cramer has a dual mandate: to entertain and to pump up the markets. He is certainly excellent as an entertainer. But this morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” he let bleed through just how concerned he is about the stock market that is teetering at the top to such an extent that a single, messy, overhyped company going public will “screw up” the...

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Palace Revolt at the ECB, Legitimacy of Policy out the Window

Draghi’s desperate shenanigans thicken. ECB President Mario Draghi, who is on his way out, will, as we’re learning more and more, do anything to push his agenda and make it stick at the ECB long after he leaves, but whatever his agenda may be, it’s clearly unrelated to the European economy which has been buckling under the consequences of his agenda: the destructive weight of negative interest rates and QE. And in the process, he is destroying the legitimacy of the ECB’s policy. The...

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“Core” Inflation Rises Most Since Sep 2008, Powered by Services and Now Even the Peculiar Case of Durable Goods

What would the Fed do if economic factors were all it looked at? Inflation as measured by the “core” Consumer Price Index, which removes the volatile food and energy segments, jumped in August at the highest rate in 11 years, by 2.39%, a smidgen above the prior peaks of July 2018 (2.35%), February 2016 (2.33%), and April 2012 (2.32%). The last time, it rose at a faster rate was in September 2008 (2.47%): The US is currently undergoing the second oil-and-gas bust since mid-2014, or...

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