Wednesday , February 20 2019
Home / Tag Archives: Transportation

Tag Archives: Transportation

What Trucking & Freight Just Said About the Goods-Based Economy in the US

Something has to give. Starting to be a fascinating phenomenon: Rates charged by trucking companies and other transportation providers continue to surge on a year-over-year basis even as the volume of shipments has dropped below where it had been a year ago, while the “capacity squeeze” of 2018 has disappeared, and as the price of fuel is down year-over-year. Freight shipment volume across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – in January ticked down (-0.3%) from...

Read More »

Next Chapter in Bankruptcy & Restructuring Saga of European and Asian Airlines

The fate of the A380 is sealed. By MC01, a frequent commenter, for WOLF STREET: On February 5, German low-cost carrier Germania announced it has filed for insolvency in Berlin and that all flights will be suspended indefinitely. According to the press release, this was due to unfulfilled “short-term liquidity needs,” meaning the company was struggling to raise the cash needed to pay for obligations coming due in the short term, such as fuel bills/hedging, landing fees, maintenance...

Read More »

Phenomenal Trucking Boom Ends, Trucking Bust Starts

So that U-turn was fast, even for the legendarily cyclical trucking business. In January, orders for Class-8 trucks — the heavy trucks that haul trailers with goods of all kinds across the US — plunged by 58% from a year ago, to just 15,642 orders. It was the lowest number or orders since October 2016, toward the end of the “transportation recession” when Class-8 truck orders had plunged to the lowest levels since 2009, and truck and engine manufacturers responded with layoffs. The...

Read More »

Low-Cost Airlines Are Crashing into Bankruptcy One After the Other as Financial Conditions Tighten in Europe

But traffic is up, and these are still the good times. By MC01, a frequent commenter, for WOLF STREET: Ryanair lowered its 2018 profit guidance from a range between €1.1 billion and €1.2 billion to a range of €1.0 billion to €1.1 billion, in what Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary called “a disappointment.” While over one billion euro in profit can be hardly called a catastrophe, it’s easy to understand the reasons of Mr O’Leary’s disappointment. Ryanair saw passengers throughout 2018 grow by...

Read More »

Boom Fizzles: Shipments Fall for 1st Time Since Transportation Recession

But freight rates remain red hot. Freight shipment volume across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – in December declined about 1% from a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index, the first year-over-year decline since the transportation recession of 2015 and 2016, and the latest mark that the phenomenal mind-bending transportation boom with its double-digit surges has ended. The index covers shipments of merchandise for the consumer and industrial...

Read More »

What Truck Drivers Say about “Driver Shortage” & Pay Increases

For the majority, pay has remained flat or has fallen over the past year. The trucking industry is reverberating with claims that there is a massive driver shortage, that they have trouble recruiting and retaining drivers, and that they have to pay more to recruit and retain them. So here’s what truck drivers are saying. How much has your salary increased in the past year? This should be an obvious one. If there is a driver shortage, and if trucking companies have trouble recruiting...

Read More »

Trucking Boom Ends, Next Phase in Cycle Starts

This is a very cyclical business.  In December, orders for new Class-8 trucks — the heavy trucks that haul the products of the goods-based economy across the US — plunged by 43% from a year ago, to just 21,000 orders, the lowest since August 2017, and down by 60% from August 2018. The chart shows the percent change of Class-8 truck orders for each month compared to the same month a year earlier, which eliminates the effects of seasonality (data via transportation data provider FTR):...

Read More »

The Trucking Boom Ends

But no letup in freight rates yet. In November, according to transportation data provider FTR, orders for new Class-8 trucks — the heavy trucks that haul the products of the goods-based economy across the US — plunged nearly 50% from July and August, 35% from October, and 15% from November 2017, to 27,500 orders, the lowest all year. This chart shows the percent change of Class-8 truck orders for each month compared to the same month a year earlier, which eliminates the effects of...

Read More »

The Wild East: Airlines in South & Southeast Asia

Huge aircraft orders, booming traffic, dozens of upstarts with easy mega-funding, fierce competition, already a big collapse, and allegations of shady business. By MC01, a frequent commenter, for WOLF STREET: As of October 31, Airbus had 6,245 members of the A320neo family on order, of which around 250 had already been delivered. Even taking into account the large discounts which are the norm for large orders, the estimated value for this order book alone was in the region of about...

Read More »

Aircraft Leasing Bubble in Trouble?

Alarming signals are coming from an unlikely place, the market that the industry long touted as an engine of infinite growth. By MC01, a frequent commenter, for WOLF STREET: In 1990, leased aircraft accounted for 15% of airline fleets. By 2017, the overall fleet of aircraft had ballooned, and within this much larger overall fleet size, the share of leased aircraft had surged to 40%. There are three general reasons why companies lease aircraft: To operate without the financial burden of...

Read More »